The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has moved its Doomsday Clock to only 2 minutes to midnight. It might be tempting to turn this into a mere squabble about arrows and olives if this wasn’t such a terrifying scenario.
US president Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, secretary-general of the USSR, signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) in 1987.
The Arms Control Association was extremely pleased. “The treaty marked the first time the superpowers had agreed to reduce their nuclear arsenals, eliminate an entire category of nuclear weapons, and utilize extensive on-site inspections for verification.”
Three decades later, the Trump administration wants to unilaterally pull out of the INF Treaty.
Earlier this week President Trump sent his national security adviser John Bolton to officially break the news to Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
As they were discussing extremely serious issues such as implications of a dissolving INF Treaty, the perpetuation of anti-Russia sanctions, the risk of not extending a new START Treaty and the deployment, in Putin’s words, of “some elements of the missile shield in outer space”, the Russian President got into, well, arrows and olives:
“As I recall, there is a bald eagle pictured on the US coat of arms: it holds 13 arrows in one talon and an olive branch in the other as a symbol of peaceful policy: a branch with 13 olives. My question: has your eagle already eaten all the olives leaving only the arrows?”
Bolton’s response: “I didn’t bring any olives.”
A ‘new strategic reality’?
By now it’s clear the Trump administration’s rationale for pulling out of the INF Treaty is due, in Bolton’s words, to “a new strategic reality”. The INF is being dismissed as a “bilateral treaty in a multipolar ballistic missile world”, which does not take into consideration the missile capabilities of China, Iran and North Korea.
But there is a slight problem. The INF Treaty limits missiles with a range from 500 km to 5,000 km. China, Iran and North Korea simply cannot pose a “threat” to the United States by deploying such missiles. The INF is all about the European theater of war.
So, it’s no wonder the reaction in Brussels and major European capitals has been of barely disguised horror.
EU diplomats have told Asia Times the US decision was a “shock”, and “the last straw for the EU as it jeopardizes our very existence, subjecting us to nuclear destruction by short-range missiles”, which would never be able to reach the US heartland.
The “China” reason – that Russia is selling Beijing advanced missile technology – simply does not cut it in Europe, as the absolute priority is European security. EU diplomats are establishing a parallel to the possibility – which was more than real last year – that Washington could nuclear-bomb North Korea unilaterally. South Korea and Japan, in that case, would be nuclear “collateral damage”. The same might happen to Europe in the event of a US-Russia nuclear shoot-out.
It goes without saying that shelving the INF could even accelerate the demise of the whole post-WWII Western alliance, heralding a remix of the 1930s with a vengeance.
And the clock keeps ticking
Reports that should be critically examined in detail assert that US superiority over China’s military power is rapidly shrinking. Yet China is not much of a military technology powerhouse compared to Russia and its state of the art hypersonic missiles.
NATO may be relatively strong on the missile front – but it still wouldn’t be able to compete with Russia in a potential battle in Europe.
The supreme danger, in Doomsday Clock terms, is the obsession by certain US neocon factions that Washington could prevail in a “limited”, localized, tactical nuclear war against Russia.
That’s the whole rationale behind extending US first-strike capability as close as possible to the Russian western borderlands.
Russian analysts stress that Moscow is already – “unofficially” – perfecting what would be their own first-strike capability in these borderlands. The mere hint of NATO attempting to start a countdown in Poland, the Baltics or the Black Sea may be enough to encourage Russia to strike.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov starkly refuted Trump and Bolton’s claims that Russia was violating the INF Treaty: “As far as we understood, the US side has made a decision, and it will launch formal procedures for withdrawing from this treaty in the near future.”
As for Russia’s resolve, everything one needs to know is part of Putin’s detailed intervention at the Valdai Economic Forum. Essentially, Putin did not offer any breaking news – but a stark reminder that Moscow will strike back at any provocation configured as a threat to the future of Russia.
Russians, in this case, would “die like martyrs” and the response to an attack would be so swift and brutal that the attackers would “die like dogs”.
The harsh language may not be exactly diplomatic. What it does is reflect plenty of exasperation towards the US conservatives who peddle the absurd notion of a “limited” nuclear war.
The harsh language also reflects a certainty that whatever the degree of escalation envisaged by the Trump administration and the Pentagon, that won’t be enough to neutralize Russian hypersonic missiles.
So, it’s no wonder that EU diplomats, trying to ease their discomfort, recognize that this, in the end, is all about the Full Spectrum Dominance doctrine and the necessity of keeping the massive US military-industrial-surveillance complex running.
Even as the clock keeps ticking closer to midnight.
Gary A Cardell Tell us, Mr. Cardell, how many sovereign nations has the U.S. invaded, bombed, and overthrown the governments of since the collapse of the Soviet Union in December, 1991?
Gary A Cardell Tell us, Mr. Cardell, how many sovereign nations has the U.S. invaded, bombed, and overthrown the governments of since the collapse of the Soviet Union in December, 1991?
I see history isn’t your forte. The US has been attacked by several countries since It’s inception. Mexico, Britain, Germany…. But I see none of that matters to this group of anti-semites.
I see history isn’t your forte. The US has been attacked by several countries since It’s inception. Mexico, Britain, Germany…. But I see none of that matters to this group of anti-semites.
The European sheeps are concerned about the demise of the INF treaty. I was a member of NATO with Pershing at the height of the cold War and if it wasn’t for Reagan, Thatcher and Helmut Kohl there would never have been a treaty. Russia has violated the treaty for years but that’s OK because we don’t want to offend the Russians. NATO has become a joke and Putin knows it
The European sheeps are concerned about the demise of the INF treaty. I was a member of NATO with Pershing at the height of the cold War and if it wasn’t for Reagan, Thatcher and Helmut Kohl there would never have been a treaty. Russia has violated the treaty for years but that’s OK because we don’t want to offend the Russians. NATO has become a joke and Putin knows it
I am not a fan of arm race, but given Putin’s acts on Ukraine and Georgia, Russia’s neighbors either near or far in Europe should alerted and be ready. They are as much help as they need, especially from the US.
I am not a fan of arm race, but given Putin’s acts on Ukraine and Georgia, Russia’s neighbors either near or far in Europe should alerted and be ready. They are as much help as they need, especially from the US.
This will result in Europe being a buffer for the US against Russia, especially in a "localised tactical short nuclear war".
This will result in Europe being a buffer for the US against Russia, especially in a "localised tactical short nuclear war".
Afraid this is very Euro centric analysis. Chinese nuclear forces are holding most of Asia hostage and with their proxy Eurasia. Deployment of intermediate nuclear forces under mine regional stability and allow execution of AA/AD strategy as below threshold concept.
Proliferation of Chinese INF not only poses danger to US and it’s allies but to India as well. There is a need for more broad based INF treaty
Afraid this is very Euro centric analysis. Chinese nuclear forces are holding most of Asia hostage and with their proxy Eurasia. Deployment of intermediate nuclear forces under mine regional stability and allow execution of AA/AD strategy as below threshold concept.
Proliferation of Chinese INF not only poses danger to US and it’s allies but to India as well. There is a need for more broad based INF treaty
Trump is creating more problems around the world. It’s time to get rid of him in the November elections.
Enough!
Trump is creating more problems around the world. It’s time to get rid of him in the November elections.
Enough!
Putin’s useful bootlicker is back without nary a mention of the Russian Novator 9M729 missile, which already violates the INF. Europe is no friend of Trump, but the NATO Chief and European militaries agree that Russia has already violated the INF, why should the US stay in a treaty that Russia is openly flaunting?
Putin’s pattern of lies: Litvitenko poisoning, MH17, Skripal poisoning is to execute, then gaslight and feign ignorance. He’s doing the same with the INF treaty, and the US/EU as well as China should develop their own to counter, and ensure parity in MAD.
Putin’s useful bootlicker is back without nary a mention of the Russian Novator 9M729 missile, which already violates the INF. Europe is no friend of Trump, but the NATO Chief and European militaries agree that Russia has already violated the INF, why should the US stay in a treaty that Russia is openly flaunting?
Putin’s pattern of lies: Litvitenko poisoning, MH17, Skripal poisoning is to execute, then gaslight and feign ignorance. He’s doing the same with the INF treaty, and the US/EU as well as China should develop their own to counter, and ensure parity in MAD.
And by "conservatives" Mr. Escobar means, of course, neo-Conservatives; and by neo-Conservatives, he means Zionists.
And by "conservatives" Mr. Escobar means, of course, neo-Conservatives; and by neo-Conservatives, he means Zionists.
Yashad Rizvi enough to bang Ur relatives many times …or even enslave them , a pity U are not their taste …bit sure enough they got the $$$$ for it !!!
Yashad Rizvi enough to bang Ur relatives many times …or even enslave them , a pity U are not their taste …bit sure enough they got the $$$$ for it !!!