The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has moved its Doomsday Clock to only 2 minutes to midnight. It might be tempting to turn this into a mere squabble about arrows and olives if this wasn’t such a terrifying scenario.
US president Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, secretary-general of the USSR, signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) in 1987.
The Arms Control Association was extremely pleased. “The treaty marked the first time the superpowers had agreed to reduce their nuclear arsenals, eliminate an entire category of nuclear weapons, and utilize extensive on-site inspections for verification.”
Three decades later, the Trump administration wants to unilaterally pull out of the INF Treaty.
Earlier this week President Trump sent his national security adviser John Bolton to officially break the news to Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
As they were discussing extremely serious issues such as implications of a dissolving INF Treaty, the perpetuation of anti-Russia sanctions, the risk of not extending a new START Treaty and the deployment, in Putin’s words, of “some elements of the missile shield in outer space”, the Russian President got into, well, arrows and olives:
“As I recall, there is a bald eagle pictured on the US coat of arms: it holds 13 arrows in one talon and an olive branch in the other as a symbol of peaceful policy: a branch with 13 olives. My question: has your eagle already eaten all the olives leaving only the arrows?”
Bolton’s response: “I didn’t bring any olives.”
A ‘new strategic reality’?
By now it’s clear the Trump administration’s rationale for pulling out of the INF Treaty is due, in Bolton’s words, to “a new strategic reality”. The INF is being dismissed as a “bilateral treaty in a multipolar ballistic missile world”, which does not take into consideration the missile capabilities of China, Iran and North Korea.
But there is a slight problem. The INF Treaty limits missiles with a range from 500 km to 5,000 km. China, Iran and North Korea simply cannot pose a “threat” to the United States by deploying such missiles. The INF is all about the European theater of war.
So, it’s no wonder the reaction in Brussels and major European capitals has been of barely disguised horror.
EU diplomats have told Asia Times the US decision was a “shock”, and “the last straw for the EU as it jeopardizes our very existence, subjecting us to nuclear destruction by short-range missiles”, which would never be able to reach the US heartland.
The “China” reason – that Russia is selling Beijing advanced missile technology – simply does not cut it in Europe, as the absolute priority is European security. EU diplomats are establishing a parallel to the possibility – which was more than real last year – that Washington could nuclear-bomb North Korea unilaterally. South Korea and Japan, in that case, would be nuclear “collateral damage”. The same might happen to Europe in the event of a US-Russia nuclear shoot-out.
It goes without saying that shelving the INF could even accelerate the demise of the whole post-WWII Western alliance, heralding a remix of the 1930s with a vengeance.
And the clock keeps ticking
Reports that should be critically examined in detail assert that US superiority over China’s military power is rapidly shrinking. Yet China is not much of a military technology powerhouse compared to Russia and its state of the art hypersonic missiles.
NATO may be relatively strong on the missile front – but it still wouldn’t be able to compete with Russia in a potential battle in Europe.
The supreme danger, in Doomsday Clock terms, is the obsession by certain US neocon factions that Washington could prevail in a “limited”, localized, tactical nuclear war against Russia.
That’s the whole rationale behind extending US first-strike capability as close as possible to the Russian western borderlands.
Russian analysts stress that Moscow is already – “unofficially” – perfecting what would be their own first-strike capability in these borderlands. The mere hint of NATO attempting to start a countdown in Poland, the Baltics or the Black Sea may be enough to encourage Russia to strike.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov starkly refuted Trump and Bolton’s claims that Russia was violating the INF Treaty: “As far as we understood, the US side has made a decision, and it will launch formal procedures for withdrawing from this treaty in the near future.”
As for Russia’s resolve, everything one needs to know is part of Putin’s detailed intervention at the Valdai Economic Forum. Essentially, Putin did not offer any breaking news – but a stark reminder that Moscow will strike back at any provocation configured as a threat to the future of Russia.
Russians, in this case, would “die like martyrs” and the response to an attack would be so swift and brutal that the attackers would “die like dogs”.
The harsh language may not be exactly diplomatic. What it does is reflect plenty of exasperation towards the US conservatives who peddle the absurd notion of a “limited” nuclear war.
The harsh language also reflects a certainty that whatever the degree of escalation envisaged by the Trump administration and the Pentagon, that won’t be enough to neutralize Russian hypersonic missiles.
So, it’s no wonder that EU diplomats, trying to ease their discomfort, recognize that this, in the end, is all about the Full Spectrum Dominance doctrine and the necessity of keeping the massive US military-industrial-surveillance complex running.
Even as the clock keeps ticking closer to midnight.
It’s all about money with the US. They need to keep the industrial military complex going as it’s a huge part of their economy and also allows them to beat the rest of the world into submission – or so they hope. Good that we have people like Putin willing to stand up to them and if it came to that I think so would Xi.
It’s all about money with the US. They need to keep the industrial military complex going as it’s a huge part of their economy and also allows them to beat the rest of the world into submission – or so they hope. Good that we have people like Putin willing to stand up to them and if it came to that I think so would Xi.
Very simple proposal for the US to feel 100% secure. Sign a peace treaty with every country of the world under the auspices of the UN.
Ban all nuclear weapons and the ban to be enforced by the UN and audited, with frequent investigations by the UN.
US to stop attacking other countries, cut off ALL RELATIONS with the rest of the world. No trade, economic, diplomatic, military, cultural, educational, etc relations with the rest of the world. Stop interfering with the rest of the world. The US operates within its own borders only, no foreign relations.
This will guarantee world peace as it is the US that attacks other countries and no other countries outside borders of North America have attacked the US since the formation of the US.
Very simple proposal for the US to feel 100% secure. Sign a peace treaty with every country of the world under the auspices of the UN.
Ban all nuclear weapons and the ban to be enforced by the UN and audited, with frequent investigations by the UN.
US to stop attacking other countries, cut off ALL RELATIONS with the rest of the world. No trade, economic, diplomatic, military, cultural, educational, etc relations with the rest of the world. Stop interfering with the rest of the world. The US operates within its own borders only, no foreign relations.
This will guarantee world peace as it is the US that attacks other countries and no other countries outside borders of North America have attacked the US since the formation of the US.
Forget of evertthing,let the US do what the want ,instead they have horrible war minded in the past 100 yrs on other countries.Now make them the US down completely.Other always want start war to hold power forever to bully other still now.
Forget of evertthing,let the US do what the want ,instead they have horrible war minded in the past 100 yrs on other countries.Now make them the US down completely.Other always want start war to hold power forever to bully other still now.
dsadas
dsadas
The two Israel first thugs (papaeo & Bolton) are running the show as the Orange clown is clueless to distinguish between Missile and fire cracker. These are Israeli maneuvers for Russian deeds in Syria and Iran. They are putting maximum pressure on Russia to eventually force them to make some trades.
The two Israel first thugs (papaeo & Bolton) are running the show as the Orange clown is clueless to distinguish between Missile and fire cracker. These are Israeli maneuvers for Russian deeds in Syria and Iran. They are putting maximum pressure on Russia to eventually force them to make some trades.
I see this differently than the esteemed Mr. Escobar.
With Russian (and to some extent Chinese) missiles making aircraft carriers essentially obsolete, the US wants to build intermediate missiles that it can station in Japan, South Korea, Inida, etc. to pressure/intimidate the Chinese. The US is admitting that its old way of projecting power through its carrier groups and aircraft will no longer work. This is their answer.
Russia already can obliterate Europe from it’s nuclear missiles in Kalingrad. The US exit from the INF makes no difference to this. Further, with Russia’s new military technology they are no longer that concerned about NATO being at their border. For the last year or so, they have stopped talking about it, and have simply said, we can overcome anything you have both now and into the foreseeable future. Even with intermideate range missiles, it’s doubtful that the US/Allies can significantly damage the Russian nuclear missiles held in the Ural mountains, especially with the newer Russian air defense systems.
This is about China not Europe.
I see this differently than the esteemed Mr. Escobar.
With Russian (and to some extent Chinese) missiles making aircraft carriers essentially obsolete, the US wants to build intermediate missiles that it can station in Japan, South Korea, Inida, etc. to pressure/intimidate the Chinese. The US is admitting that its old way of projecting power through its carrier groups and aircraft will no longer work. This is their answer.
Russia already can obliterate Europe from it’s nuclear missiles in Kalingrad. The US exit from the INF makes no difference to this. Further, with Russia’s new military technology they are no longer that concerned about NATO being at their border. For the last year or so, they have stopped talking about it, and have simply said, we can overcome anything you have both now and into the foreseeable future. Even with intermideate range missiles, it’s doubtful that the US/Allies can significantly damage the Russian nuclear missiles held in the Ural mountains, especially with the newer Russian air defense systems.
This is about China not Europe.
Put sanction against US regime, ban their army from Europe… exclude them from world trade agreements, make military security agreements with Russia and China and let them be alone as they want.
Put sanction against US regime, ban their army from Europe… exclude them from world trade agreements, make military security agreements with Russia and China and let them be alone as they want.
Most rational thinkers believe no one can win a nuclear war but unfortunately the American policy makers think otherwise, it maybe scary to see what kind of brain these people have.
Most rational thinkers believe no one can win a nuclear war but unfortunately the American policy makers think otherwise, it maybe scary to see what kind of brain these people have.
Hard to understand how the USA ended up being run by such fools. Americans (Jews and their Anglo slaves, neocon or not), wrongly think they can outsmart everyone. Obama thought they were exceptional. We think they are, in the long run, very stupid. Risking armageddon for everyone on the planet is STUPID.
Hard to understand how the USA ended up being run by such fools. Americans (Jews and their Anglo slaves, neocon or not), wrongly think they can outsmart everyone. Obama thought they were exceptional. We think they are, in the long run, very stupid. Risking armageddon for everyone on the planet is STUPID.
Nuclear weapons technology/capability/acquisition has, is and will continue by any nation that can in defiance of global treaties, protocols and sanctions by any/all means until another offensive/defense technology replaces it, if you think otherwise you’re living on the wrong planet
Nuclear weapons technology/capability/acquisition has, is and will continue by any nation that can in defiance of global treaties, protocols and sanctions by any/all means until another offensive/defense technology replaces it, if you think otherwise you’re living on the wrong planet