The 2018 India-Russia summit may have turned out to be one for the ages. The stakes superficially centered on whether India would seal the acquisition of five S-400 missile defense systems from Russia for $5.43 billion.
The deal was clinched immediately after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin finalized their get-together in New Delhi. Negotiations started in 2015. The S-400s will be delivered in 2020.
So what’s next? Trump administration sanctions against India under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA)?
If only such a geopolitical game-changer was that clear-cut.
This is a weapons deal that involves Russia, India and China – a key, if not the key BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) triad. The new reality is that all of these BRICS/SCO members are now able to deploy the highly effective S-400s.
But that does not mean that two of them – India and China – would necessarily have to deploy S-400s against each other in case of a unilateral attack.
Putin was adamant to stress that Russia will turbo-charge bilateral cooperation with India not only in the SCO but at the UN and the G20 as well. Modi for his part reaffirmed both India and Russia favor a multipolar world.
Modi hopes Russia would help India develop its space program – which includes New Delhi possibly sending Indian astronauts into space by 2022. He emphasized Russia has always “stood shoulder-to-shoulder with India in the energy sector and our goals.”
“Our goals” crucially include Russia and India in synch in terms of preserving the JCPOA, known as the Iran nuclear deal. An inevitable consequence is that India will not refrain from buying Iranian oil and gas, even if threatened with American sanctions.
The Trump administration might even waive sanctions against India if – according to the National Defense Authorization Act – President Trump decides that New Delhi has not undermined US strategic interests by buying Russian missiles.
The verdict, of course, remains absolutely open.
Make your mind up, New Delhi
At the Russian-Indian Business Forum, Economic Development Minister Maksim Oreshkin was adamant that India and Russia are bound to increase trade and investment towards a “trade turnover of $30 billion… and increasing investments to $50 billion by 2025.”
New Delhi suggested last month the creation of a special economic zone (SEZ) for Russian business – on top of an already discussed “green corridor” for smoother trade.
All that fits the framework of historically warm Russia-India relations. Yet the Big Picture is way more nuanced as it highlights the finer points of Eurasia strategic balance between the three big BRICS/SCO partners.
Putin and Xi Jinping have already established that the New Silk Roads, known as Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) will be merging in multiple fronts.
That would leave New Delhi as the odd partner out. India is not aligned with BRI and is frankly opposed to one of BRI’s flagship projects; the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Nothing that could not be solved by Beijing, for instance, fine-tuning the CPEC route bordering Kashmir.
Moscow and Beijing for their part are extremely aware that India may be used by Washington as a Trojan Horse to undermine Eurasia integration.
Evidence to support it include the recent Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) which de facto converts New Delhi into a US military ally; the new status of India as Washington’s only “major defense partner”; and India’s role in the Trump administration’s revival of the Quad (alongside Japan and Australia), something interpreted by Beijing as an attempt to encircle it in the South China Sea.
The problem is the ultra-nationalist Hindus in Modi’s BJP party actually support encirclement and/or containment of China. The never enounced key reason is economics. Were India to join BRI, the BJP fears a Made in China onslaught would simply destroy Indian domestic industries, much as what happened to some industry sectors in BRICS member Brazil, China’s top trade partner in Latin America.
What Beijing and Moscow want is for their comprehensive strategic partnership – and synergy – to advance a BRI/EAEU-led Eurasia integration process. It’s not clear this is India’s strategic priority.
Washington’s strategic priority is quite clear: divide and rule, by all means, the BRI-EAEU-BRICS-SCO concerted drive for Eurasian integration and global multipolarity.
So, with the S-400s a done deal, the ball really is in New Delhi’s court. A much vaunted, official “multi-alignment” policy still leaves the fundamental geostrategic question up for grabs; will India lean towards American-style Divide and Rule, disguised as Balance of Power, or in favor of a multi-polar drive for Eurasia integration?
The author has integrated his understanding of American foreign policy both pre and post cold war in his analysis. Current events in Europe and the current state of Europe viz-a-viz NATO- Russia conflict is an American project to tie the entire European continent as dependency of America under the guise of ”detering of Russia". In the American strategy, however, the protectorate must not challenge American preeminence and must have unquestioning royalty. Just in this preeminence is challenged America retains tools of ”arm twisting” to bring about compliance. The JCPOA between the P5 + 1 is just a tiny position of the iceberg of evidence for this. American interests are always paramount. This is the reason why Europeans are being warned against buying Russian energy under the pretext of ”energy security" even if it is economically logical to do so! In short America creates trouble for its allies and comes back under guise of a fire fighter.
The author guides the reader in his analysis that if the American geopolitics game has not granted independence to Europe and Japan neither will it do so for India. Instead, polarization of the Sino-Indian relations will worsen if India falls so much into the American orbit. That situation will likewise threaten India’s potential as center of power in a multipolar world.
He ,however, provides alternatives in which India as a center of power can thrive along with other Eurasian powers without becoming an Amercan protectorate. What is wrong with that intelligent argument?
Harold Hachoofwe the only thing that is apparent is that you don’t know how to spell ‘mediocracy’
This author has a Obvious bias towards China, why would India ever seriously consider China s BRI, which by now is apparently a debt trap, almost every country participating in the BRI have realised it and China is facing a massive backlash. Even Pakistan has had second thoughts about many white elephant projects in the CPEC and is renegotiating those deals, Malaysia has cancelled some, Sri Lanka is ruing getting sucked in and the Maldives is no longer in China s orbit. India and the US are the worlds biggest democracies and are natural allies, China is India s biggest competitor, both economically and geopolitically and has repeatedly tried to encircle India s aspirations by its ‘string of pearls’ policy. Why would India forsake a natural ally like the US with which its Geo strategic interests converge and ally with a domineering China that seeks to impose its hegemony in its neighbourhood and Asia? India has much to gain by partnering with the world s sole superpower and fellow democracy rather than a country run by Emperor Xi.
I heard about on Indian Tv, where do you live?
India has been through worse times than it is now. Technologically, it is much more advanced now than in the 60s, militarily- a nuclear power capable of delivering nukes anywhere on the planet with a greater flexibility to form alliances than China, demographically and economically more vibrant than the ageing China in the long term. So please know your country better. India is a expected to be a centre of power not someone’s protectorate!
That same shrunken power continues to secure your country’s air forces, army and navy. They are the only security council member willing to share with you top secret technology in aerospace industry. To vindicate my argument, how far is the U.S willing to share their fifth generation tech of F-35 or F-22 with your country other than India being turned into another big market for American arms and a target for Russian and Chinese nukes and to minimise damage on U.S by spreading it to India as well?
Indian leaders continue to recognize the significance of Russia period. India’s acquisition of S-400 and other arms such as Su-30 MKI, brahmos etc is evidence of that. To trivialise the Indo-Russia relationship is a sign of, either, ignorance or serious prejudice.
Samuel Asande Indeed, mediocrisy is very apparent!
While it is true that the Taliban pose a threat to India, it is not entirely true that they pose a direct threat as do groups such as Laksh-e-Taibar. If indeed Russia is supporting the Taliban, something yet to be verified, it is because it is lesser evil than ISIS – the later being a much more serious threat to both India and Russia!
Rajendra Chouhan, yes you are right, neither toiletless Indians are in the position to advise us. So, its better for both of us to mind our own business. Buy as many as weapons you can, but never forget the famous saying, " it’s not the gun , but the man behind the gun that matters". We least bother about your big weapon purchases, we have enough to keep you inside your holes.
India ought to propose and to promote a rail corridor from Saigon to Casablanca. That would be revolutionary, linking ASEAN, Indian subcontinent, the middle east and northern Africa – from the pacific to the atlantic ocean!
YES, PAKISTAN HAS GOOD EXPERIENCE WITH THEIR TWO LEGS ON US AND CHINA FOR LONG TIME- TILL NOW WHEN US BRUISED ONE LEG
I HAVE OBSERVED THE SAME.
PEP,
THOUGH I ADMIRE YOUR ARTICLES, AND ANALYSIS OF CURRENT GEO POLITICAL AND STARTGIC ANALYSIS, YOU MUST UNDERSTAND THAT INDIA AND INDIANS ARE STUPID, AND THEY ARE WELL AWARE FO WHAT IS GOOD FOR THEM, SO YOUR PRO ;CHINESE VIEW ARE OFF THE BASE LINE.
You can have your legs in two boats only for awhile.
The author used to be Intuitive in the past and wrote impartially. Lately, I ha e noticed that his views are in support of China only and in some cases even if that’s irrational.
Regarding this article perhaps the author should consider the fact that india does believe in the zero sum game of geopolitics. He would do well to read and understand Indian philosophy on "Kaal". And how what we are doing now is really asked on time. Because we have time on our side and because we are not dumb idiots. We are in it for the long run. The only other country that’s capable of thinking long term is Iran but sadly it’s in a decline too.
If the author spends some time on Indian philosophy it will have helped. I can’t believe he is blind to the fact that Indians use Russian and American tech in ways that China can only dream.of against China. Yawn!!!! Another shallow wannabe. I hope he is at least getti g paid well by the Chinese.
Russia is backing the Taliban in Afghanistan which is a direct threat to India.
If India does not ally with the USA it will be at the mercy of China. That is all that needs to be said.
"The problem is the ultra-nationalist Hindus in Modi’s BJP party actually support encirclement and/or containment of China. The never enounced key reason is economics. Were India to join BRI, the BJP fears a Made in China onslaught would simply destroy Indian domestic industries, much as what happened to some industry sectors in BRICS member Brazil, China’s top trade partner in Latin America. "
Rubbish. This Escobar is an ingnoramus. He knows nothing about India. The Indian Opposition as well as the goverment are firmly opposed to China and pro alliance with the US. The first moves towards the Indo-US alliance was made by Prime Minister Manmohan SIngh who was a Congress prime minister. China is a dangerous power that threatens Indian borders and backs India’s enemy Pakistan to the hilt. No sensible Indian trusts this racist totalitarian tyranny.
This Escobar is a paid propagandist for the.Chinese racist totalitarians who run the regime in Beijing and the neo-Nazi gangsters who run Russia.
India did not even announce the deal and Modi declined to meet Putin at Delhi Airport. The visit was given a low profile to avoid annoying the Americans. It is clear with whom India’s future lies.
There are a number of dumb Indians who are living in the dead past and have not realised that Russia today is not the Soviet Union. It is a shrunken nation with only half the GDP of India and totally dependent on China. It has said openly that it cannot help India in the event of a war between India and China. For India the only feasible great power alliance today is with the USA. Modi has realised that. The fool who wrote this article does not. Russia is a declining country ruled by neo-fascist gangsters.