The 2018 India-Russia summit may have turned out to be one for the ages. The stakes superficially centered on whether India would seal the acquisition of five S-400 missile defense systems from Russia for $5.43 billion.
The deal was clinched immediately after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin finalized their get-together in New Delhi. Negotiations started in 2015. The S-400s will be delivered in 2020.
So what’s next? Trump administration sanctions against India under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA)?
If only such a geopolitical game-changer was that clear-cut.
This is a weapons deal that involves Russia, India and China – a key, if not the key BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) triad. The new reality is that all of these BRICS/SCO members are now able to deploy the highly effective S-400s.
But that does not mean that two of them – India and China – would necessarily have to deploy S-400s against each other in case of a unilateral attack.
Putin was adamant to stress that Russia will turbo-charge bilateral cooperation with India not only in the SCO but at the UN and the G20 as well. Modi for his part reaffirmed both India and Russia favor a multipolar world.
Modi hopes Russia would help India develop its space program – which includes New Delhi possibly sending Indian astronauts into space by 2022. He emphasized Russia has always “stood shoulder-to-shoulder with India in the energy sector and our goals.”
“Our goals” crucially include Russia and India in synch in terms of preserving the JCPOA, known as the Iran nuclear deal. An inevitable consequence is that India will not refrain from buying Iranian oil and gas, even if threatened with American sanctions.
The Trump administration might even waive sanctions against India if – according to the National Defense Authorization Act – President Trump decides that New Delhi has not undermined US strategic interests by buying Russian missiles.
The verdict, of course, remains absolutely open.
Make your mind up, New Delhi
At the Russian-Indian Business Forum, Economic Development Minister Maksim Oreshkin was adamant that India and Russia are bound to increase trade and investment towards a “trade turnover of $30 billion… and increasing investments to $50 billion by 2025.”
New Delhi suggested last month the creation of a special economic zone (SEZ) for Russian business – on top of an already discussed “green corridor” for smoother trade.
All that fits the framework of historically warm Russia-India relations. Yet the Big Picture is way more nuanced as it highlights the finer points of Eurasia strategic balance between the three big BRICS/SCO partners.
Putin and Xi Jinping have already established that the New Silk Roads, known as Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) will be merging in multiple fronts.
That would leave New Delhi as the odd partner out. India is not aligned with BRI and is frankly opposed to one of BRI’s flagship projects; the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Nothing that could not be solved by Beijing, for instance, fine-tuning the CPEC route bordering Kashmir.
Moscow and Beijing for their part are extremely aware that India may be used by Washington as a Trojan Horse to undermine Eurasia integration.
Evidence to support it include the recent Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) which de facto converts New Delhi into a US military ally; the new status of India as Washington’s only “major defense partner”; and India’s role in the Trump administration’s revival of the Quad (alongside Japan and Australia), something interpreted by Beijing as an attempt to encircle it in the South China Sea.
The problem is the ultra-nationalist Hindus in Modi’s BJP party actually support encirclement and/or containment of China. The never enounced key reason is economics. Were India to join BRI, the BJP fears a Made in China onslaught would simply destroy Indian domestic industries, much as what happened to some industry sectors in BRICS member Brazil, China’s top trade partner in Latin America.
What Beijing and Moscow want is for their comprehensive strategic partnership – and synergy – to advance a BRI/EAEU-led Eurasia integration process. It’s not clear this is India’s strategic priority.
Washington’s strategic priority is quite clear: divide and rule, by all means, the BRI-EAEU-BRICS-SCO concerted drive for Eurasian integration and global multipolarity.
So, with the S-400s a done deal, the ball really is in New Delhi’s court. A much vaunted, official “multi-alignment” policy still leaves the fundamental geostrategic question up for grabs; will India lean towards American-style Divide and Rule, disguised as Balance of Power, or in favor of a multi-polar drive for Eurasia integration?
India can continue being the Satrap of the racist Anglo/Zionists. Unlike China, the Anglo/US/Zionist Empire colonized the Indian mind. This is why India will be impeded in the future.
India can continue being the Satrap of the racist Anglo/Zionists. Unlike China, the Anglo/US/Zionist Empire colonized the Indian mind. This is why India will be impeded in the future.
Harold Hachoofwe
The Russians are a volatile people, easily going from Stalinism to neo-Nazism in the case of Putin. It was an enormous misfortune for Western Europe and the world when the Soviet bloc was dissolved. This unleashed into Western Europe and the world all the poisons of fascist outlooks that the Communists had held down by force for decades behind the Iron Curtain. Scratch an East German, a Pole or a Russian or a Hungarian and you find a white racist fascist. Russia and Eastern Europe should be quarantined to prevent their fascist poisons from destroying civilization.
Harold Hachoofwe
The Russians are a volatile people, easily going from Stalinism to neo-Nazism in the case of Putin. It was an enormous misfortune for Western Europe and the world when the Soviet bloc was dissolved. This unleashed into Western Europe and the world all the poisons of fascist outlooks that the Communists had held down by force for decades behind the Iron Curtain. Scratch an East German, a Pole or a Russian or a Hungarian and you find a white racist fascist. Russia and Eastern Europe should be quarantined to prevent their fascist poisons from destroying civilization.
Harold Hachoofwe
I will admit one thing in you favour and where I was wrong. I spoke in haste and anger when I mentioned racial discrimination against Indians in Uganda. I admit that I personally was often laughed at as a "Muindi" by Afrincans and schoolmates but this was in a good natured way. My closest friend in Uganda was an African and before Idi Amin came to power the life of Asians there was generally very pleasant. I will freely admit that. You are mistaken however in setting store by the Russia of today which has a white racist agenda.
Harold Hachoofwe
I will admit one thing in you favour and where I was wrong. I spoke in haste and anger when I mentioned racial discrimination against Indians in Uganda. I admit that I personally was often laughed at as a "Muindi" by Afrincans and schoolmates but this was in a good natured way. My closest friend in Uganda was an African and before Idi Amin came to power the life of Asians there was generally very pleasant. I will freely admit that. You are mistaken however in setting store by the Russia of today which has a white racist agenda.
Ganpatt Ram All i see in you is illogical hatred! These same Russians are the ones that stood by you when you were sanctioned by your knew found friends over your nukes development. They still continue to stand by you to this day.
A country leasing boomers to you does not seek to colonise you but to make you independent.
If you desire a relationship like that between the U.S and Japan for your country then i am sorry. Its not worth to continue in a discussion with you.
Ganpatt Ram All i see in you is illogical hatred! These same Russians are the ones that stood by you when you were sanctioned by your knew found friends over your nukes development. They still continue to stand by you to this day.
A country leasing boomers to you does not seek to colonise you but to make you independent.
If you desire a relationship like that between the U.S and Japan for your country then i am sorry. Its not worth to continue in a discussion with you.
Roch Fort You mean in the geopolitical orientation? If that is what you mean, i can assure you that we are being owned by the Chinese. Yes they have developed some infrastructure but the deals are very opaque and hardly bring about meaningful change in the lives of the local people except for those in power.
We cannot stand for a single month without external support. So i prefer not to talk about my small geopolitically insignificant country in such debates.
Roch Fort You mean in the geopolitical orientation? If that is what you mean, i can assure you that we are being owned by the Chinese. Yes they have developed some infrastructure but the deals are very opaque and hardly bring about meaningful change in the lives of the local people except for those in power.
We cannot stand for a single month without external support. So i prefer not to talk about my small geopolitically insignificant country in such debates.
Ganpatt Ram Like i said earlier it is not yet verified that Russia supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan. If they are then it is geostrategic move to check the expansion of ISIS because at present that is the only resource available by which that end can met.
There are no parallels between the different colonialists scrambling for Africa and India, and ISIS and the Taliban.
Ganpatt Ram Like i said earlier it is not yet verified that Russia supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan. If they are then it is geostrategic move to check the expansion of ISIS because at present that is the only resource available by which that end can met.
There are no parallels between the different colonialists scrambling for Africa and India, and ISIS and the Taliban.
Ganpatt Ram Hahaha! what is propaganda about the land problems in South Africa? The journalist wrote an article as he had received it. The land problem in SA is over 500 yrs old and it is as it is because of people like yourself who believe in inherited superiority rising to power. Now that SA is a democracy, albeit imperfect, the original owners of the land want some of it back. Taking lives and burning property is, however, a wrong way to correcting a historical injustice.No place is perfect, not Russia, Africa or America.
Ganpatt Ram Hahaha! what is propaganda about the land problems in South Africa? The journalist wrote an article as he had received it. The land problem in SA is over 500 yrs old and it is as it is because of people like yourself who believe in inherited superiority rising to power. Now that SA is a democracy, albeit imperfect, the original owners of the land want some of it back. Taking lives and burning property is, however, a wrong way to correcting a historical injustice.No place is perfect, not Russia, Africa or America.
Ganpatt Ram There are people, i am sure who are paid to advice the Indian govt and i don’t ever dream of doing so! Like the article is an opinion, my comment too is an opinion which you can never take away from me.
Secondly, your knowledge of Africa is very poor but i do sympathise with you on your bad experience while you were in a very small African country ruled by dictators. I live in a part of Africa where your kinsmen have excelled in both business and political life. We’ve even had several cabinet ministers of Indian origin for your own information. Can you tell of the same on the Indian side, of an instance when an African rose to even as low a position as a local council member? You see, we do not have castes in my part of the African continent who are deprived of the right to an opinion. We are born free to pursue whatever our communities can afford us regardless of the social class that one is born into. Africa, however, like every other region of the planet has its own share of imperfections and these will remain as long as there are human beings.
Thirdly, there are a number of intellectually sound issues that i have raised in this discussion but you’ve only noticed one that i did not even mention- me being African. If as a human being you cannot see goodness in others beyond their and your race then you are not fit to be human- your existence is a curse to humakind. Besides, i perceive a lot of inferiority complex in you in that you fail to notice that India is expected to be center of power because of its technological advancement and favorable demography(3 times that of U.S and 10 times that of Russia) and stable political system.
So be careful the way you speak. You might just reincarnate to a stone in next life.
Ganpatt Ram There are people, i am sure who are paid to advice the Indian govt and i don’t ever dream of doing so! Like the article is an opinion, my comment too is an opinion which you can never take away from me.
Secondly, your knowledge of Africa is very poor but i do sympathise with you on your bad experience while you were in a very small African country ruled by dictators. I live in a part of Africa where your kinsmen have excelled in both business and political life. We’ve even had several cabinet ministers of Indian origin for your own information. Can you tell of the same on the Indian side, of an instance when an African rose to even as low a position as a local council member? You see, we do not have castes in my part of the African continent who are deprived of the right to an opinion. We are born free to pursue whatever our communities can afford us regardless of the social class that one is born into. Africa, however, like every other region of the planet has its own share of imperfections and these will remain as long as there are human beings.
Thirdly, there are a number of intellectually sound issues that i have raised in this discussion but you’ve only noticed one that i did not even mention- me being African. If as a human being you cannot see goodness in others beyond their and your race then you are not fit to be human- your existence is a curse to humakind. Besides, i perceive a lot of inferiority complex in you in that you fail to notice that India is expected to be center of power because of its technological advancement and favorable demography(3 times that of U.S and 10 times that of Russia) and stable political system.
So be careful the way you speak. You might just reincarnate to a stone in next life.
Anil Shetty Are you sure?