Russia is currently staging a massive exercise to show off its military might. But perhaps its sense of insecurity and weakness is a key factor behind the move.
On September 11, the country kicked off what it calls “the largest-ever [exercise] in the history of modern Russia.” According to its Defense Ministry, the Vostok-2018 maneuvers, which run until September 17, involve some 300,000 troops, 36,000 tanks and other vehicles, 1,000 aircraft and helicopters, and 80 ships and vessels.
These war games are bigger than the Communist-ruled Soviet Union’s largest exercises, the Zapad-81 drills, in 1981, in which about 100,000 soldiers participated.
“The main goal of these grand military drills, the most large-scale ones since 1981, is to check the operational readiness of the Russian armed forces,” Frants Klintsevich, the first deputy chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of Russia’s Federation Council, was quoted by the TASS news agency as saying.
“Such a check-up will be quite handy in the context of a very difficult situation in the world,” he said, citing “the unprecedented pressure that the US is exerting on Russia” as the primary cause of that situation.
More precisely, Klintsevich referred to Washington’s sanctions, which are crippling Russia’s economy, describing them as “some kind of a preventive strike on Russia, an attempt to hinder its inevitable rise [and] its transformation into a leading global power.”
What the Russian senator didn’t mention is that the main reason behind the US-led sanctions against Moscow is the latter’s foreign adventures in recent years, including its annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014.
What’s more, the Kremlin is unable to retaliate against such sanctions economically. That’s why it chooses to flex its military muscles instead.
Commenting about “Russian war games” on Wednesday, the Chinese state-run Global Times said: “One of Russia’s traditions is showing its military muscle and scaring off Moscow’s potential intimidators, especially when Russia is relatively weak.”
Such views expressed by a major Chinese newspaper are both surprising and telling. Russia’s giant neighbor sent 3,200 troops and 30 aircraft to the Vostok-2018, becoming the first Asian country outside the former Soviet Union to take part in a large Russian military exercise on Russian soil. Also, as rightly pointed out by Li Hui, China’s ambassador to Russia, “At present, China-Russia relations are at their best in history.”
But there are some truths contained in the nationalistic and outspoken Global Times’ less than complimentary comments.
Russia is relatively weak. Economically, it is just a middle power. Despite its vast size, relatively large population and rich natural resources, the largest country by area on earth is not among its top 10 biggest economies.
At $1,527 billion (in 2017, according to the International Monetary Fund), the economy of the country of 144 million people is roughly the same as that of South Korea, which is much smaller in terms of population and especially land area.
Or, by another comparison, Russia’s GDP, as pointedly observed by some, is smaller than that of Texas ($1,696 billion) and California ($2,746 billion).
Unlike advanced economies, Russia’s economy is heavily dependent on the extraction of raw materials. The country is also faced with an aging population and shrinking workforce, which led to a plan to raise the pension age, prompting unrest and protests in recent months.
Russia’s GDP, as pointedly observed by some, is smaller than that of Texas ($1,696 billion) and California ($2,746 billion)
While it is an economic dwarf on the world stage, Russia is a major military power – mainly thanks to the weapons it inherited from the Soviet Union. Under President Vladimir Putin, it often displays its military might to hide its economic weakness or project itself as a leading global power.
In his inauguration speech in May, the 65-year-old leader, who has effectively ruled Russia since 1999, vowed “to increase the might, prosperity and glory of Russia” and “will do everything in [his] power to achieve this.”
But, with his forceful and adventurous posture at home and abroad, rather than increasing his country’s “might, prosperity and glory,” it seems Putin has decreased it.
Staging such massive and long war games that involve almost a third of the country’s armed forces around Siberia and the Russian Far East is costly and, indeed, unnecessary – especially at a time when Russia is facing higher social spending demands and its people are still angry over the proposed pension-age hikes.
In his May address, Putin promised to do everything in his power to “bring prosperity to every household in Russia.”
An editorial by Bloomberg last month said that the Russian strongman cannot achieve that goal before 2024 when the constitution says he must step down, and that he himself “is the reason” that achieving those goals is “an impossible mission.”
The problem is, according to Bloomberg, “more political than economic.” It cited Moscow’s Crimean land grab and its meddling in other countries’ elections as examples because, according to this American business-minded outlet, such actions have not just made Russia “an international pariah and provoked Western sanctions” but also created “persistent uncertainty that keeps foreign investment and ideas away.”
Indeed, Russia was dealt a huge blow following its Crimea annexation. It has slightly recovered during the last two years. However, faced with the possibility of new US sanctions, it recently lowered its 2018 economic growth forecast to 1.8% from 1.9% and to 1.3% from 1.4% in 2019.
Addressing the troops when he inspected the Vostok-2018 exercises on September 13, Putin pledged to beef up Russia’s military capabilities by” further strengthening [its] armed forces and supplying them with the most up to date weapons and equipment.”
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s 2018 report, at $66.3 billion, Russia’s military spending in 2017 was 20% lower than in 2016
He can only do that with a strong economy. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s 2018 report, at $66.3 billion, Russia’s military spending in 2017 was 20% lower than in 2016.
Accounting for 4.3% of its GDP, that amount was quite significant. But, it remains much smaller than the US’s military budget, which was $610 billion last year. This also shows, while Russia is a leading military power – or is seeking to project itself as such – it still lags far behind the US.
Awareness of his country’s weaknesses and especially vulnerabilities vis-à-vis the US-led sanctions, Putin has turned to a rising, more powerful China, which Russia until recently saw – perhaps still covertly perceives – as a threat.
Chinese President Xi Jinping attended – for the first time – the annual Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), Putin’s pet project, in the Russian Far East port of Vladivostok, which also started on Tuesday.
Coupled with the Chinese participation in Vostok-2018, Xi’s presence at the 4th EEF indicates there is a burgeoning partnership between the two authoritarian neighbors. Admittedly, Beijing has its own reason to forge closer ties with Moscow. Like Russia, China is locked in many key disputes with Washington, including a deepening trade war.
That said, the current Russia-China rapprochement is opportunistic, not strategic. Given their past mistrust and current rivalry, it’s unlikely that they will develop their partnership into a military alliance.
For its own development, whether it likes it or not, Russia, like China, needs stable relations with the US and its European allies. But its Vostok 2018 will probably worsen their already strained ties.
In his comments, Klintsevich, who participated in the 1981 drills, said the Zapad-81 drills “cooled down some hotheads in their time,” stressing that the “Vostok-2018 drills will fulfill the same role.”
Quite the contrary is true, however. Its latest muscle-flexing will make the US and its allies more wary of – and, consequently harsher toward – Moscow.
What’s more, as Klintsevich himself may not yet forget, the Soviet Union, a military superpower, collapsed not because an outside enemy invaded, captured and destroyed it. It collapsed mainly because it was too weak economically and no longer able to cope with its economic problems.
While it’s very unlikely that Russia will face the same fate, if it focuses too much on military build-up and not enough on economic development, it will not achieve the prosperity Putin has promised or it deserves to enjoy.
According to IMF data, in 2017, Russian per capita GDP was $10,608, while that of Germany and Japan was $44,500 and $38,400, respectively.
Perhaps the Russian people should ask themselves why, though their country is endowed with rich natural resources and many other advantages, they cannot enjoy the level of prosperity that many of their European and Asian peers, such as the Germans and Japanese, have long experienced.
Well lets get the facts straight shall we. The US sponsored NATO to move right up to Russia`s borders. Is that not a threat? The US overthrew the elected government of the Ukraine with the intent of bringing that country bordering on Russia into NATO and kicking Russia out of Sevastopol in Crimea. Is that not a threat? The US is now trying to strangle the Russian economy. Is that not a threat, actually is that not open warfare? The Russian leadership would be derilect in it`s duty to protect the country if it did not demonstrate it`s ability to defend itself, because if the actions of the US and NATO were not answered, given the US addiction to invading weak countries Russia would be in serious danger of being over run by the savages from the West.
Putin is a lot of thing mostly good, but for sure the one thing he is not and that is stupid. Russia saw the ugly face of the USA during the early 90s they do not want to see it again.
The author is white washed. It’s very easy to understand western/pirate culture: whatever they do is right, whatever others do is wrong, even if it’s the same thing; aka Western Exceptionalism.
I agree the W (Clintin/Bush/Obama(Clinton), aided by your heroine Merkel, were extremely arrogant in dealing with what they thought was a failed state.. But it’s only failed so long as Putin keeps the lid on the mafia there.Putin gone = failed again.
Go ask the Ukrainians (if any airline issue adult diapers) if they want to be part of the W or Russland. They’ll say W (I was there recently). Same too with M Europeans, or Balts….. the hatred of Russians is sad, but understandable after 50yrs of Soviet domination.
As for your ‘savages’ well our Banksters do fit that description, but so do the Red Army who ‘liberated’ Europe east of the Elbe.
Your views are the typically one-sided of someone who has never travelled.
Go ask the …. Vietnamese…. China is the only nation waving their (v small) weapons.
"Dr Xuan Loc Doan researches and writes on a number of areas."
If you check this guy’s other articles, you’ll find that he is frequently bashing China, Russia, but prasing American war criminal John McCain. This article is full of Russophobic Western cliches: describing events in Crimea as a "land grab", describing Russia as a "dwarf". lol
The fact is Russian war exercises rattle the West – that’s reason enough to have them! The author himself sounds like a Vietnamese equivalent of "Uncle Tom".
Yashad Rizvi — The Soviet Union wasn’t exclusively, or even primarily, a Russian production.
The military industrial complex is a hugh business. Just look at what the US is selling. A few billion of weaponary orders here and there. All adds up to a highly lucractive business. Wars and military exercises are used as a platform to test new weapons and technologies. It is an advertisement of how good our weapons are. The US never ending war is another such platform. The Saudi ordered US100B worth of weapons. That’s hugh. Yes war game is part of the state economy.
Loc Doan is a banana Vietnamese. In PPP terms, Russia’s economy is bigger than S Korea.
US/EU instigated the violent coup in Ukraine that installed a neo- Nazi fascist government and the US has the intention, using Ukraine as a proxy to seize Sevastopol, the Russian naval base in the Black Sea and install US ships there. Luckily, Putin uses Russian troops to forestall this and carried out a referendum in Crimea that restored Crimea to Russia.
The US was acting against history because Ukraine is originally part of the Soviet Union just as the US is acting against Chinese history in not recognising Taiwan as part of China. Yakunovich, the then president of Ukraine was pro-Russia and was ousted by the violent coup.
Loc Doan has the thick skin to self-appoint himself as an economic advisor to Russia.
So long as Russia is ruled by Vladimir Putin or men like him Russia will always be WEAK. As this article said, Russia is a country with a plethora of wealth and resources and a well educated population with a long and rich culture. I sometimes wonder what Russia would be like if all these attributes where properly directed and harnessed. If Russia were properly governed, it would probably have a economy and a technological base that would rival if not equal, perhaps even surpass that of the West.
But no.
Russians prefer to be ruled by men like Vladimir Putin. A corrupt, despotic KGB thug. Russia does have a powerful military and a massive amount of armaments. Tanks, warplanes, nuclear submarines and missiles, but in spite of all this Russia is Weak. The Soviet Union had even greater military strength than Russia has today or will have in the near future but all that was of no consequence when the Communist system collapsed.
What good does it do you if you are wearing the strongest armor and have the mightiest and most destructive weapons on the outside when on the INSIDE your body is racked with an all consuming cancer. This describes Russia today as it did the Soviet Union. The cancer that is eating the Russian body away is fascism, despotism, corruption and disregard for the Rule of Law.
In spite of Russia’s military strength now or what it may be in the future, So long as Russia is ruled by a corrupt, self-seeking, despotic and dictatorial man like Vladimir Putin or men like him, Russia will ALWAYS be weak.
WuKong Sun
You prefer him to be China-washed.
Russia is overrated. It is a sick dwarf of a nation increasingly retreating into white racist fascism as its poisonous ideology that it is working frenziedly to export to Europe and America. Russia today has half the GDP of India and one tenth of the population of China. Russia will never take good adice and is hell bent on detsroying itself and others. Lenin was the last intelligent Russian leader.
Russia is overrated. It is a sick dwarf of a nation increasingly retreating into white racist fascism as its poisonous ideology that it is working frenziedly to export to Europe and America. Russia today has half the GDP of India and one tenth of the population of China. Russia will never take good advice and is hell bent on destroying itself and others. Russia is a drunk in the delirium tremens stage. Lenin was the last intelligent Russian leader.
Advising Russia is futile. It is a once great nation bent on destroying itself. It is ruled by mafia gangsters sworn to a white racist ideology.
What Russia is doing with its military exercise is warning not the USA but a country it fears infinitely more: China. Russia is, as the Chinese saying has it, beating the dog to scare the monkey.
Advising Russia is futile. It is a once great nation bent on destroying itself. It is ruled by mafia gangsters sworn to a white racist ideology.
Russia is overrated. It is a sick dwarf of a nation increasingly retreating into white racist fascism as its poisonous ideology that it is working frenziedly to export to Europe and America. Russia today has half the GDP of India and one tenth of the population of China. Russia will never take good advice and is hell bent on destroying itself and others. Russia is a drunk in the delirium tremens stage. Lenin was the last intelligent Russian leader.
"Loc Doan is a banana Vietnamese."
You like eating bananas with rotten yellow flesh?
Srinivasa Nanduri
You are living in the past. Like many Indians your brain moves slowly. The Russia of today is not the Soviet Union by a long way and has discarded Soviet values long ago. It is a dangerous country exporting white fascism to Europe and America. That is why Trump loves it so much and why the decent people in his administration fear it. Russia is funding the ever stronger neo-Nazi movements in Europe. It is intensively using false propaganda for them. to spread racism and hate. It is a very good thing that India is turning away from Russia. They are a people with a gift for dangerous ideas, easly swinging from one horrific extreme to another. Once they exported Stalinism. Now ther are exportimng neo-Nazism. White fascists adore Russia as a stronghold of their ideology.
LOL
Ilia Prahov
The Russia of today is not the Soviet Union by a long way and has discarded Soviet values long ago. It is a dangerous country exporting white fascism to Europe and America. That is why Trump loves it so much and why the decent people in his administration fear it. Russia is funding the ever stronger neo-Nazi movements in Europe. It is intensively using false propaganda for them. to spread racism and hate. It is a very good thing that India is turning away from Russia. They are a people with a gift for dangerous ideas, easly swinging from one horrific extreme to another. Once they exported Stalinism. Now they are exportimng neo-Nazism. White fascists adore Russia as a stronghold of their ideology. The only decent Russians were the Old Bolsheviks, and Stalin killed them off.