Malaysia’s robust economic ties with China traditionally went hand-in-hand with a conciliatory approach to their low-boil territorial conflicts in the South China Sea.
That “quiet diplomacy”, however, has started to come undone as Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s new government re-examines and looks to redefine the terms of its bilateral relations with Beijing
Since Mahathir’s election in May, the Southeast Asian country has emerged as a new vortex of resistance against China’s growing economic influence and rising strategic sway over the region – one that other claimants to the contested maritime area are no doubt closely monitoring.
The region is already watching as Malaysia takes the lead in redefining its economic relations with China amid rising concerns that its outward investments, particularly big ticket infrastructure projects, could become sovereignty-eroding debt traps.
A senior Malaysian official told this writer the government is expected to cancel up to US$40 billion in Chinese infrastructure projects previous agreed under the US$1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), due to concerns over corruption, viability and debt.
That’s more than the US$22 billion previously reported, including US$20 billion for the cancelled high-speed East Coast Railway Link (ECRL) and US$2 billion worth of pipeline projects.
Mahathir caused more investor ripples in late August when he announced a government ban on foreign buyers for the China-backed, US$100 billion Forest City real estate project in the southern city of Johor that had catered largely to overseas Chinese.
But Malaysia is equally concerned about China’s potential domination of the nearby South China Sea, a strategically crucial waterway through which as much as US$5 trillion worth of annual trade transits.
China has claimed as much as 90% of the maritime area through its so-called nine-dash line map. An arbitral tribunal at The Hague ruled the map’s claims were groundless in a July 2016 ruling Beijing has refuted and ignored.
Malaysia controls a number of land features in the sea’s Spratly chain of islands, including the artificially augmented and well-developed Swallow Reef. The reef hosts state-of-the-art tourist resorts, a modern airport as well as permanently stationed military personnel from the Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN).
One of Mahathir’s senior advisors who requested anonymity told Asia Times that the nonagenarian leader realizes that today’s China is far more assertive, if not hegemonic, than the poorer, low-key version he engaged during his previous 22-year tenure as national leader from 1981-2003.
Known for his staunch independence, Mahathir has so far stuck to his previous “non-aligned” foreign policy doctrine, which has seen him not only critical of the West by calling US President Donald Trump an “international bully”, but equally skeptical of China under outward-looking President Xi Jinping.
In a sharp turn from the broadly China-leaning rhetoric of his Southeast Asian peers, Mahathir has described the current leadership in China as being “inclined towards totalitarianism” and over-prone “to flex[ing] muscles” to “increase [its] influence over many countries in Southeast Asia.” He has described China’s thrust into the region as “very worrisome.”
Previously, Mahathir viewed China as a much-needed counterbalance to what he saw as America’s neo-imperial behavior in the region, according to the same advisor. Today, however, the roles have been reversed, the advisor says, with the US increasingly needed to balance against China’s growing assertiveness in the region, including in the South China Sea.
Despite his personal reservations vis-à-vis Trump, the Malaysian leader is expected to meet his American counterpart on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September. He will aim to explore stronger strategic cooperation with the US to reduce his country’s dependence on China, the advisor says.
The Najib administration’s intimate diplomatic ties with China came with stronger defense cooperation, including through the 2016 purchase of Littoral Mission Ships (LMS) and other advanced naval assets.
At the same time, Beijing lent Najib a financial lifeline when his government struggled to cover debts related to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) state fund he created and is now struggling to defend against massive corruption and money-laundering charges.
In exchange, Najib’s government remained silent on China’s growing incursion into Malaysia’s waters and traditional fishing grounds, much to the consternation of residents in the nation’s coastal regions.
With all this in clear sight, Mahathir accused Najib of selling out the country to China on the campaign trail. Now, it’s precisely this excessive tilt towards Beijing that his new government seeks to rebalance by enhancing strategic ties with the West and other external powers.
His earlier meeting with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on August 3 was held in the context of expanding bilateral strategic cooperation amid shared concerns over China. In recent years, the US Navy has conducted regular visits to Malaysian ports and the two countries are known to be exploring deeper maritime security cooperation.
Mahathir will likely continue, if not augment, such efforts, though in a low-key manner given domestic sensitivity about military cooperation with the West and his staunch “independent” foreign policy mantra, the advisor says.
As a Muslim majority country, Malaysia has historically been critical of the West’s policies in the Middle East, particularly America’s military interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, its large-scale military assistance to Israel amid its siege on Palestinians in Gaza, and broadly against the global war on terror, which in the past two decades has extended to the jungles of Southeast Asia.
An overt strategic tilt towards the West would not only negate Mahathir’s staunch non-aligned doctrine, but could also stoke resentment among conservative sectors of Malaysian society that voted him into office as a proven defender of ethnic Malay identity and Muslim values.
Malaysia’s geo-strategic significance lies in its position on the Malacca Strait as well as the South China Sea, two critical waterways which are crucial to China’s energy imports and trade with the wider world.
For decades, Beijing has feared the possibility of the US and its allies using choke points such as the Malacca Strait to wreak havoc on the Chinese economy in a conflict scenario. China had hoped to at least partly overcome its so-called “Malacca dilemma” by investing in major infrastructure projects along Malaysia’s strategic ports and coastal areas.
Now, all of those multi-billion dollar development plans are up in the air under Mahathir’s government.
Mahathir, however, has made clear that he isn’t seeking to forge a counter-alliance or containment front against China per se, and remains averse to taking a more militaristic stance in the South China Sea, his advisor says. “They are more powerful and we cannot fight against them,” the Malaysian leader told CNN earlier this year.
Yet Mahathir has rhetorically opposed China’s recent militarization of the disputes, which he has said risks jeopardizing regional security.
He has emphasized the importance of freedom of navigation and overflight in the area, saying he is fine with “all… ships, even warships, passing through.” But he remains opposed to any naval assets being “stationed” in the contested sea. “It is a warning to everyone. Don’t create tension unnecessarily,” he said in a recent media interview.
Mahathir’s Malaysia wants a fast freeze of the escalating disputes and is especially worried about great power conflict in light of the US Navy’s recent pushback in cooperation with regional and European allies through Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the area.
Malaysian Senator and Deputy Defense Minister Liew Chin Tong told this writer on August 27 that the new government is “not worried with China’s expansive claims per se, but instead is concerned over their willingness to [fully] enforce them” in the future at the expense of other claimant states.
“We don’t want to antagonize China, but we also don’t want to be seen as a client state,” the Malaysian defense official said, while accusing the predecessor Najib Razak administration of being overly dependent on and deferential to Beijing.
Crucially, Malaysia is also looking at ways to strengthen cooperation with fellow Southeast Asian claimant states, including the Philippines, a US treaty ally, and Vietnam, which is particularly perturbed by China’s relentless reclamation and militarization activities in the South China Sea.
At Mahathir’s behest, the three Southeast Asian claimant states may consider a more coordinated diplomatic position on the disputes and explore various confidence-building measures to de-escalate tensions in the area, Malaysian officials say.
It’s not immediately clear what specific measures the Malaysian government may advocate to protect its interests and prevent conflict in the South China Sea. What is clear, however, is that Mahathir’s new government has abandoned the country’s previous quiet diplomacy for a more proactive and vocal stance on balancing China’s rise.
China is the largest trading partner of Mahathir government with huge surplus in his favor, China is also the biggest buyer of Malaysian palm oil and rubber. Mahathir is sending a team from his partner DAP for first hand discussion in China. Report like this is always to promote American interest by confusing people in the region.
Chana cannont play the role of Super Evil Power like US is doing.
I have faith on Mr. Mahthir for his honest role in that part of globe.
China should listen to Malayasia to play as an honest broker for world peace. China should stand for Myanmar Rohyangas.
While the CPC never lies ? Palm oil is causing vast devatation in SE Asian forests.
What wily old Mahathir wants is to make sure the Bhumis stay on top, any increase in the number or influence of ethnic Chinese will cause the Bhumi to vote in some very nasty Islamists. The riotsof the 60’s will be tame in comparison.
This report is erroneous and factually wrong! Aim to skew the world view of Malaysia and China relationship.
Nurun Nabi, British and the American created the Rohyanga problem in Myanmar like they created the ISIS problems in the ME, you need to ask the perpetrators to take up their responsibility and settle those Rohyanga in Britain, Australia, NZ and USA. Rohyanga will be way more happier living in those nations instead of Myanmar.
Mahathir is Malaysia’s PM, whatever he chooses, it is the Malaysians to bear the consequences. China should move on to find better opportunities, like building Kra Canal.
I hope Duterte would be like Mahathir though he needs to contend first with too much politicking Filipinos.
Joe Wong , You are trying to distract Rohyanga issue with British and American. Tell why you are killing and raping Rohyanga.?
Are you proposing China to abandon Malayasia.? Why China does not abandon UN ?
This is looks like another CIA troll and propaganda. The same was said when the Sri Lanka government came to power after they campaigned against Chinese Investment. In power they increased the debt and embraced China even more closer. Let’s watch as it unfolds,Malaysia and SEA have no alternative to China.
I laugh when I read ATimes nowadays – what has become of this once-proud media channel, such that it is now no more than a shrill mouthpiece for anti-China invective and propaganda
Shame can take many forms: this website is merely one of them
The turning date was January 2015. Before January 2015, Asia Times was a decent respected magazine. Since January 2015, it has become a mouthpiece of the US propaganda machine.
The pro-China articles at AT outnumber the anti-China pieces, by a large margin.
Reading AT, one gets the impression that the Middle Kingdom is Glorious New Investment Horizon.
Joe Wong
Or maybe it’s time to reconsider whether Singapor is a better choice…
Anti-China ideology informs Heydarian’s writings on China.
Heydarian wrote " Mahathir caused more investor ripples in late August when he announced a government ban on foreign buyers for the China-backed, US$100 billion Forest City real estate project in the southern city of Johor that had catered largely to overseas Chinese."
I refer Heydarian and readers to the following:
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/opinion/2018/09/02/mahathirs-forest-city-mistake/
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/08/02/minister-foreigners-can-buy-freehold-properties-in-forest-city/
Quotations from the above:
" KUALA LUMPUR: The Pakatan Harapan (PH) government will continue allowing foreigners to buy freehold properties in Forest City, in line with the ruling issued by the National Land Council in 2014, says Water, Land and Natural Resources Minister Dr Xavier Jayakumar.
“Regarding the Forest City issue, I said earlier that foreigners can buy freehold properties. This is pursuant to a ruling made by the council effective March 2014,” he said in the Dewan Rakyat today.
He was responding to Hassan Abdul Karim (PH-Pasir Gudang) who asked about the government’s stand on allowing foreigners to acquire freehold properties, especially in Forest City.
Xavier said the approval was in line with Section 344 (b) of the National Land Code which says the state authority has the right to grant foreigners approval to acquire properties subject to guidelines issued by the Economic Planning Unit. The council had agreed to the guidelines."
First and foremost, Mahathir is a politician, and like Trump, he would utter his private prejudices even if they do not conform to the law. And it is well known that Mahathir has a strong anti-Chinese streak in him although he has apologised for the mistakes he made as a previous PM.
Heydarian wrote " But Mahathir remains opposed to any naval assets being “stationed” in the contested sea. "
But Malaysia PERMANENTLY stations military personnel from the Royal Malaysian Navy on Swallow Reef.
My conclusion, before the dust has settled and all issues clarified and settled, pro-western writers will grasp at any statements made by SE Asian politicians that can be interpreted as anti-China and make a big issue over it.
Do not forget. Mahathir was an initiator and sponsor of the Kuala Lumpur War Crimes Tribunal which sentenced G W Bush, Rumsfeld, Blair, etc, as war criminals. Let us see how this will square with his intended rapprochment with the US and its continuing war crimes against Muslims in the Mid East, Africa and Afghanistan.
Nurun Nabi, The British and the American created the Rohyanga problem, why are you trying so hard to deny it for them despite historical facts, are you a disguised Anglo?
The CIA and MI6 used their proxies, jihadists and ISIS, to kill and rape Rohyanga like they uses White Helmets to carry out chemical attacks in Syria, and then allege the Burmese and Syrian for the crimes. Are you one of those killing and raping Rohyanga and use perjury to establish fake allegation, so that the American and British could bomb and Kill Burmese on the moral high ground?
Nurun Nabi, Are you proposing SE Asians should abandon their independence to let the Anglo to rule them like subhuman species in the old days of colonialism? Why don’t you call to eradicate Islam for the Christian as a Christian’s best slave’s duty?
Nurun Nabi, British imported Rohyanga from Eastern India, Rohyanga should be sent back to India.
This article is full of BS!
Dr Mahathir has repeatedly and openly said that he admires China and wants to continue the friendly relationship with China.
He has employed people whom China looks on with favour to further seal this friendship such as the ‘Hero’ of China, Mr. Robert Kuok.
The problems of Malaysian-Chinese projects he has balmed on his predecessor and not on China.
It is a lie that he would ever tilt towards the US as he was the first Asian nation leader to identify the US as the world’s worse rogue nation! He continues to think even more so with the many added US atrocities since he left office and returned!
This is a western paid article to create tension and problems between China and Mlaaysia!
Mahathir government faces US$ 5.2 billion penalty fee by breaking contracts with China.
Anti-China ideology informs Heydarian’s writings on China. Heydarian wrote: "Mahathir caused more investor ripples in late August when he announced a government ban on foreign buyers for the China-backed, US$100 billion Forest City."
I would refer Heydarian to the following:
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/opinion/2018/09/02/mahathirs-forest-city-mistake/
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/08/02/minister-foreigners-can-buy-freehold-properties-in-forest-city/
Quote from above: " KUALA LUMPUR: The Pakatan Harapan (PH) government will continue allowing foreigners to buy freehold properties in Forest City, in line with the ruling issued by the National Land Council in 2014, says Water, Land and Natural Resources Minister Dr Xavier Jayakumar. "
Pro-western writers like Heydarian will grasp at any off-the -cuff statements from SE Asian politicians, even though these statements clash with local laws, and make a big anti-China issue out of it.
Mahathir, being a politician is not averse to shooting from the hips.
" Mahathir opposes any naval assets being stationed in the contested area." But Malaysia has personnel from the Royal Malaysian Navy permanently stationed on Swallow Reef !!
Do not forget that Mahathir was the initiator and sponsor for the Kuala Lumpur War Crimes Tribunal that sentenced G W Bush, Rumsfeld, Blair and others as war criminals. It would be interesting to see how Mahathir will square this with his rapprochment with the US and its ongoing war crimes against Muslims in the Mid East, Afghanistan and Africa.
Yashad Rizvi :
"The riots of the 60’s will be tame in comparison. But you’ll be back in China while your community burns."
Times have changed. That will invite intervention from China through the UNO or otherwise. Remember what happened to the riot threatened against the local Chinese two years which was quelled by the Chinese ambassador Dr Huang’s walkabout in Kuala Lumpur’s Petaling Street?
For your information China has enacted laws to protect those of Chinese origin from any act of ethnic cleansing.
Joe Wong, But why you are killing and raping Myanmar Rohyangas.
Does it make China Happy as a new super evil power ?
asdasdsad
Yashad Rizvi, Palm oil and rubber plantation that caused vast forest devastation was Anglo’s handy work. Wherever the Anglo reached, devastation follows, Opium, wars, genocide, concentration camps, and racial discrimination are some of the foot prints they left behind.
Nurun Nabi, Why are Indian using killing and rape to stop Rohyangas returning to their ancestor’s land in India?
Joe Wong , Show me the news that India is killing and rape on Rohyangas. Like your Min Aung Hlaing, you are creating base less news.
Joe Wong you are a joke. Palm oil was not a factor during colonial rule.
You have over played your hand in your quest to portray Europeans as the bad men to try and conceal the evils of China’s current leadership.
You are a stooge for a regime.
Nurun Nabi Chinas contract negotitors and Malayasian officials just like pot meet kettle for business. Sorry US$ 5.2 billion penalty fee has to pay.
Wishful thinking and demonstrates either your ignorance of the real World and/or your allegiance to the China Communist Party. LMAO ????????????
Oh
You want all these countries debt trapped on useless projects and become slave states to china
LOL, Vietnam is "particularly perturbed" by China’s activities in the South China Sea? Really? China has militarized seven disputed islands, Vietnam has militarized 30+ islands and reefs. And Vietnam was the first country to reclaim land on islands and reefs in the South China Sea. Are they that hypocritical? Or is the author just that ignorant of the whole situation in the SCS?
Jose Miranda for some reason no one who makes this claim actually looks into it. The U.S. actually sent a goverment-back investigative team to China to determine the truth of organ harvesting, especially in reference to Falun Gong practitioners. They found absolutely…..nothing! Please feel free to pull your head out of your ass and stop spreading unfounded accusations anytime.