A massive monument depicting four Chinese figures wheeling a large circular object, determined faces pointed directly south, stands in the Chinese border town of Jiegao opposite Muse in Myanmar.
The Chinese language characters on the base of the monument read “Unite, Blaze Paths, Forge Ahead!” – or, in more mundane terms, “Southeast Asia, here we come!”
While the motto would seem to speak for the ambitions of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a US$1 trillion dollar global infrastructure-spending program first articulated by President Xi Jinping in 2013, the statue at Jiegao was actually erected 20 years earlier in 1993.
The idea of opening a trade outlet for China’s landlocked southwestern provinces through Myanmar to the Indian Ocean was first articulated by Pan Qi, a former vice minister of communications, in an article for the official weekly Beijing Review in September 1985.
But logistics, civil war and, most importantly, military suspicion of China’s ambitions all conspired against the corridor’s realization – though border trade took off in the early 1990s, just as Western sanctions on the then military regime’s rights abuses started to pinch.
That is changing now under nominal national leader Aung San Suu Kyi, notably at a time her elected government faces rising fire from Europe and America for the Rohingya crisis, a military-driven expulsion of over 700,000 refugees the United Nations suggests had “genocidal intent.”
China has seized on Myanmar’s renewed international pariah status to push forward its corridor ambition. On September 10, the two sides signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the construction of a so-called “China-Myanmar Economic Corridor”, or CMEC,
The CMEC is envisioned as a 1,700 kilometer-long corridor of roads and railroads connecting the Chinese city of Kunming, the capital of China’s southern Yunnan province, with three Myanmar commercial centers, namely Mandalay, Yangon and the Kyaukpyu port and economic zone that lets out on the Indian Ocean.
It appears that China is doubling down on its push for the CMES as progress on the China-Thailand railroad that envisions connecting China with mainland Southeast Asia through Laos appears to be stalling. China has already constructed oil and gas pipelines that run the length of Myanmar into southwestern China.
Global Times, a Chinese state mouthpiece tabloid, said after the MOU was signed that the CMEC will provide China “an alternative way to transfer oil from the Indian Ocean”, reference to Beijing’s desire to bypass the Strait of Malacca chokepoint through which 80% of its energy imports pass, and “is a further sign of Myanmar’s willingness to integrate and benefit from the BRI.”
It is not likely the CMEC-enabling MoU was even on the Myanmar government’s agenda a couple of years ago, a time when Myanmar’s relations with the West were riding high amid optimism for the country’s move to democracy and ties with China at a countervailing low point.
While Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government seems more willing to engage China’s BRI ambitions, it is still unclear how far Myanmar’s military and other political leaders are willing to play along with Beijing.
Recent history shows at times strong military resistance to China-led projects, particularly those perceived as a threat to national sovereignty.
In 2011, then president Thein Sein, a former military general, suspended a US$3.6 billion China-backed hydroelectric power project at Myitsone in the country’s northern Kachin state. That project was slated to export 90% of the power produced to China and threatened to significantly disrupt the flow of the nation’s main Irrawaddy River.
More tellingly, perhaps, Thein Sein also allowed a May 2011 MoU to build a high-speed railroad from the Chinese city of Ruili, near Jiegao, to Kyaukpyu on Myanmar’s western coast to expire in 2014.
In a sign of the changed times and shift in foreign relations under Suu Kyi, the daily Myanmar Times reported back in July this year that the railroad project that expired under Thein Sein is “quietly back on track” under Suu Kyi’s government.
In late June, Thaung Tun, a minister in Suu Kyi’s Cabinet, led a delegation to a BRI summit in Hong Kong and was quoted by the South China Morning Post as saying that the railroad “connecting Ruili in Yunnan…with Mandalay would start quite soon” and “in all likelihood it will be extended to Yangon and Kyaukpyu.”
He portrayed the railroad as a “win-win deal” that would not become a “debt trap”, as many big ticket BRI infrastructure projects in the region are now being portrayed, including in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Laos.
That’s not how others see it, however. In May, Sean Turnell, an Australian economist who serves as an adviser to Suu Kyi’s government, said the US$7.5 billion price tag for the deep-sea port at Kyaukpyu and the US$2.3 billion for an accompanying special economic zone as “crazy.”
His and other criticism led to a downsizing of the project in August to a more manageable US$1.3 billion for the port. In October 2017, China’s CITIC Group and its subsidiaries had already agreed to drop its stake in the project from 85% to 70% amid Myanmar fears of becoming too dependent on its powerful northern neighbor.
Still, the BRI writing is on the wall in Myanmar. There will be a huge deep-sea port built at Kyaukpyu – and, most likely, a high-speed railroad connecting it will Ruili in Yunnan – both with Chinese majority stakes. The exact financial terms of the projects are either still being worked out or have not yet been publicly disclosed.
Suu Kyi’s civilian government clearly wants to show it has accelerated economic development since its election in late 2015 and before new polls are held in 2020.
Many in Myanmar had earlier hoped that the transition to semi-democracy would spark a foreign investment-led economic boom, but that hasn’t – and now likely won’t – happen with rising Western criticism of the Rohingya crisis.
The previous Thein Sein government, under which both the Myitsone dam and initial plan to build a China-Myanmar high-speed railroad were scrapped, was dominated by the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the NLD’s main electoral rival at the next 2020 polls.
The USDP’s “reform program”, under which political prisoners were released and a more open political climate replaced the old rigid dictatorship, also aimed to lessen the country’s economic dependence on China through improved relations with the West.
It is unclear what steps the highly autonomous military might take if it feels that the NLD government is ceding too much to China, but it certainly has several leverage points to thwart any move in that direction, including a strong military presence along various sections of the proposed corridor.
What is clear is that China is forging ahead again with its 25-year-old vision to push south, strategically at a time when Myanmar is once again estranged and isolated from the West.
China. please take a humane care and responsibility on Myanmar Rohyanga. Myanmar military will only listen to you.
China, please don’t give any veto at UN on Rohyana. Pleas send food and aid to the needy. Please dont abandon them.
It is a good thing that the west recoils from Myanmar. The western people are evil people. They are murderers. They kill people, especially unarmed peasants and civilians. Myanmar does not need and does not want the western countries. Cooperation with China and the other ASEAN countries is the future of Myanmar. The sooner the China Myanmar Economic Corridor is built, the better the population of Myanmar will be.
Will China help Myanmar Rohyangas to live in peace with full dignity as a human being.
When you say "western people" do you mean civilians, the military, the governments or every single person in the West? What about Myanmar citizens staying in the West?
Sorry, I’m a bit confused. Where does Pol Pot fit in (& in relation to peasants)?
World government is the only solution to ethnic conflicts. Get rid of all state borders.
Abdul Rob , Very timely comment.
But can we say, the name Mr. Pol Pot Hlaing Hitler.
I think the China-Myanmar partnership is a win-win outcome for both sides. If the West ignore or sanction Myanmar then what the West is saying is that we have given up on you – please do as you please. You cannot blame Myanmar for working closely with China as todate they are the only reliable neighbour other than Asian countries such as Japan, Singapore and Thailand that they can depend upon.
When Mars is colonised there won’t be ethnic groups to begin with. But perhaps it will be the evil north (NASA, SpaceX or Mars One colony)? Later the evil south (Take your pick: China, Russia, ESA, Japan, etc.).
The West was only interested in pulling Myanmar away from engaging with China. The past decade has proven that all the nice Western promises of development to Myanmar was empty. After some initial proposals and posturing, none of those nice plans materialized.
This was not surprising at all for anyone who understand the realities of geography and economics of global supply chain. Myamar is inconveniently located far away from global trade routes and the global supply chain in East Asia. The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor is the only project that provides the substantial economic driver that can pull Myanmar out of remote backwardness and join the Asian economic revival.
Western countries such as UK , France and Germany are such a hyopcritical group.Western criticism of fake Rohingya crisis is completely unfair and UN is now like a OIC’ watch-dog only.
well they’re not really evil. Look at the many born and lived all their life in Asia, – and they know why… But, Michael Chan, with the rest you write, I agree. Its better to avoid the double standards of the West.
and so the story goes, another chance for a mutual and harmonious relation was spoiled. The so called "Western Democracies" are getting rid of themselves to arogance. Who threatens only with force makes himself a clown and is simply not taken seriously also when threats are decleared as "humanitarian interventions". I only hope China will not be lured with ever new promisses which then will not be respected or undermined, HSBC can make this it very likely… As for Myanmar and Aung San Suu Kyi its the best of all options.
If Suu Kyi kicked out the Chinese and allowed the US to build a naval base on the Indian Ocean and Myanmar became a NATO "partner", you wouldn’t hear another word about the Rohingya in the Western media.
Come ON !!! You don’t have to go as far as that !!! ( a NATO member ?)
Like the Uighurs ?
Cannot blame Burma for behaving like a Fascist country like China and evading civilised rules ?
Waiting for China or Mid East to give asylum to the Rohingya
OK so lets see China give asylum to the Rohingya
Yashad Rizvi You mean there is no fascism in the Muslim world? What about the Saudi, Iran & Turkey? Remember even in the Muslim world – God may have created man to be equal & just but intepretation of powerful man of the Koran has led to injustice for many minorities.
By right UK should send Hunt to apologize to Myanmar for this complicated crisis created by their colonial forefathers in making GB great, which they’re now enjoying the fruits, and commit to taking all the bengalis, whose forefathers had slaved for the British empire, to UK as what gratitude is due.
Yashad Rizvi
Damn! Looks here as if you have the word “Uighers” stuffed up your wazuuu, way way up your your wazuuu, Rizvi…
I mean what’s with you, Rizvi? Got yourself screwed bad bad by the Chinese or somethin? Unbelievable. Just plain unbelievable. And you wonder why there are cases like Otto Warmbier, Euna Lee’s, and Laura Lings?
And C’mon! American hostages? https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=American+hostages+released+north+korea&view=detail&mid=4CD820520ECC889466D74CD820520ECC889466D7&FORM=VIRE Give me a break. Try intelligence agency gathering. It’s treasonoys. Its traitorous…
It’s a case of people who are willing to sell their mothers and daughters in whole for an opportunity to suck up to others that they idolize and, we Chinese have plenty such in our midst…
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I’m glad to hear the economic revival won’t be going into the pockets of the Tatmadaw? "The Times They Are a-Changin’."
Abdul Rob Pol Pot came to power in the midst of the chaos of the US war in Southeast Asia and was supported by the US and China against Vietnam.
Well, it took a long time for the Bengali myth to be posted this time. Like night follows day, it always crops up, resolutely defiant of all facts. The British census of 1925-6 showed a large Muslim community who spoke the local Rakhine language that had been living in Arakan & were linguistically distinct from Northern India. Sorry… the British opted to classify on the basis of religion, not ethnicity. But that won’t give ammunition for critics to say, why wasn’t ‘Rohingya’ mentioned? The 1961 census indicated the Maya district was 75% Rohingya. Even the government 1964 school encyclopaedia describes the ethnic make up of the Mayu region as 75% Rohingya & a few Rakhine (Bank of Knowledge 1964. ‘Scripture of Myanmar Encyclopaedia’, Rangoon. Page 89). I’m sorry if this doesn’t fit in with your narrative. Basically, 90% of the country now have an aversion to Muslims, particularly the Rohingya. It’s may be part because of the Theravada belief?
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(Another of ya bleedin’-hearted Uyghur cases, Rizvi)
“ROHYANGAS” does not belong in Myanmar…
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/09/15/dalai-lama-says-europe-belongs-to-europeans-and-refugees-should-ultimately-go-back-home.html
Myanmarians belongs to sub group as this https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/unexpectedly-there-is-a-copy-of-china-liberation-army-and-six-star-red-flag.347735/ Myanmarians, and the NE of South Asia simply wants to be left to themselves…
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Nurun Nabi
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(Another of ya bleedin’-hearted Uyghur cases, Rizvi)
“ROHYANGAS” does not belong in Myanmar…
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/09/15/dalai-lama-says-europe-belongs-to-europeans-and-refugees-should-ultimately-go-back-home.html
Myanmarians belongs to sub group as this https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/unexpectedly-there-is-a-copy-of-china-liberation-army-and-six-star-red-flag.347735/ Myanmarians, and the NE of South Asia simply wants to be left to themselves…
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Sound’s great, look far beyond the Uighur muslims camps, still holding a million of muslims.. That’s the true definition of civilized China.
Flora de los Sinensis ,
Mr. Flora, Do you think Uighers are human. Please don’t distract humanity with hatread. Please be polite, that will glorify you.
Abdul Rob- That is you narrative. There is no ending of narratives based on ‘facts ‘
But first, 90%of the country have avertion to Muslims is totally out of point, maybe to bengalis. There are another 4-5 million ‘Myanmar
Muslims ‘ in all other parts of the country, forefathers of many of them came to Myanmar earlier than the rohinjas. They follow Myanmar laws, assimilate to local without loosing their religious entity, more importantly they do not demand for ethnicity. They have more freedom than some Muslim countries. Women can wear hijabs or not in public, nobody prevents them like in some western countries, most prefer not to wear on their own preference. Women can go freely about without men companions, vote, drive cars and even taxis if they want. Myanmar has a gazettes public holiday for Muslim Id. Men do not take multi wives and do not breed like bunnies. There are more than a thousand mosques in the country.
Rohinjas are behaving in the opposite of all these Myanmar Muslim. Worst they are demanding ethnic status which has special privileges. Listening to mullahs or religious leaders they do not send children to government schools, do not follow government birth control programs, men take two three wives on religious convictions and have ten, twenty children.
True there are many whose forefathers lived since Rakhine kingdom time, but much more are interlopers. The government has step by step citizenship program in the country, only the rohinjas don’t want to accept, while others in similar situation, such as the Chinese, do not have problem with it.
90% of the country view this as a national security issue.
By the way I’m not abiding any brutality in any form anywhere in the world.
Galen Linder. I mentioned Pol Pot only because the comment seemed to indicate that only Western people were ‘evil’. Yes, the US committed many atrocities against innocent civilians in Vietnam, Laos & Cambodia in the name of the domino theory, though that’s another story.
Aung Maung. Thank you for taking your time for such a long reply. I read it carefully. Sorry, I’m only online a short time daily. I’m happy to see that you are against brutality anywhere in the world. Not all the posts follow this dictum. Could you clarify some points. If a government book mentions Rohingya, then they can’t all be Bengalis? If a government book does not give facts, then how can we believe their present narrative? I think ‘breeding like bunnies’ has some links to economic wealth? Also, sometimes women cannot control what they would prefer because of patriarchy & conservative religious attitudes. May I ask, does the regulations on having no more than 2 children apply to everyone in Myanmar? Look forward to your reply.
Aung Maung. Hello. To clarify. I’m not trying to make up my narrative (opinion) but am presenting what the government said (relating to evidence in the form of a government book & government census). I used the word "facts" because these were government printed documents. The reason I have cited the government documents is that you mentioned "Bengalis". I was just wondering if there are "Rohingya" because many people on these posts seem to say there aren’t but they support the Myanmar government position. This is curious, so please try to explain.
Jay Lee Mr. Jay, are you justifying to say that they are doing crime and you are following the crime to kill Myanmar Rohyangas.
Mr. Haav, tell why is China silent on atrocity and genocide of Myanmar Rohyanga. Why China is afraid of its Ughir Muslim.
Can you say where and how do you justify fake Rohyanga crisis.
Did you allow Chinese and Russian to verify your fake comment on Myanmar Rohyangas?
Are you telling yor China and Russia to follow the evils of West.
Mr. Aung, you are going back towards British colonial era, Why. Just to justify your killing rape and massacare of Myanmar Rohyangas.
Aung Maung , Whats your narrative on the genocide by your army on Myanmar Rohyangas?. Why your army rapes the Rohynaga. Are Myanmar army wives impotent?
Suu Kyi does not have any power. Its the Min Aung Hlaing.
Myanmar is a military dictor state.