The Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin meeting in Helsinki earlier this summer has sparked an intense debate about the details of the discussions between the leaders of the two superpowers. There is little known about these discussions, and the agreements reached remain shrouded in secrecy.
This has fed speculative frenzy about the possibility of Putin controlling the president of the United States.
Some members of the US intelligence community have contributed to the frenzy by suggesting that the Russians may have something on Trump that compromises American national security.
The situation is chaotic and fuzzy, though even chaotic situations, as we learned from the mathematical theory of chaos, have some defining patterns and organizing dynamics.
What alternative hypotheses can rationally explain the nature and content of these discussions, beyond simplistic explanations based on conspiracy theories, even if those conspiracy theories also turn out to be accurate?
Preferences, prejudices and politics
Trump’s revealed preferences and prejudices can serve as useful guides as to what could explain the Trump-Putin relationship, and what they discussed in Helsinki.
The president has made it clear that he has a preference for Christians and the rich and powerful. He perceives the economy, trade and money as zero-sum games. His world is full of competitors but no partners, deal-makers and deal-breakers.
His end game with Russia could be to drive a wedge between the Russians and the Chinese, and another between the Russians, Iran and Syria.
After all, Russia is white, Christian and not a real economic competitor. The Chinese are non-white, non-Christian and a growing formidable economic power that is contesting American dominance in almost all economic domains. Iran and Syria are primarily Muslim countries and enemies of Israel, and belong to a group of nations for whom Trump has shown nothing but disdain and contempt.
But why would Trump attack traditional partners – the European Union, Great Britain, Canada and other NATO countries – when presumably he could have courted the Russians without having to insult his old partners?
Well, it could be that Trump is demonstrating and setting an example for Putin to follow.
Pressuring Russia to dump China?
The argument goes along these lines: If Trump is willing to dump old allies, why shouldn’t Putin dump his old ally China for a new alliance with the United States? Trump has also shown a preference for populism of the type that is gaining steam in Europe, particularly eastern Europe, and among the current liberal democracies in power whose ideologies he does not share.
Trump believes that the commonalities between Russia and the US are myriad and deep, including a new common and shared interest in a higher price for oil.
In many respects, Russia is still an oil- and gas-dependent economy where oil and gas export revenues represent two-thirds of its export earnings and half of its federal budget. What happens to the price of oil is a matter of national security and survival for Russia. The last thing it needs is the US competing with it in the European oil and gas market.
Fixing the price of oil at a level that helps Russia meet its budgetary needs cannot be achieved without American support and collusion. Saudi Arabia, the Russians know, will toe the US line as it has always done; besides, the Americans are now increasingly assuming the role of the swing producer that the Saudis have played for decades.
Will Russia ditch China?
Whether Trump and his advisers have succeeded in this possible pursuit is yet to be seen. But one thing is clear: US-Russia relations are at a very low point today, and Trump apparently believes the potential for improving ties is real.
The US needs Russia to contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, unlike the Chinese, who apparently seem willing to manipulate the crisis to serve their own strategic purposes.
Russia needs the US to stabilize Syria, restrain Israel and constrain Iran’s influence without allowing the Middle East to reel into an unmanageable crisis.
The real question for Russia is whether they are ready to ditch their long-established alliance with China for what could be a temporary respite in US-Russian relations.
Trump is increasingly meeting resistance to his plans from both Republicans and Democrats. Apparently, there are many Americans who still believe that the Cold War has not ended, particularly amid evidence that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election.
The world, nonetheless, is today safer with the two superpowers working together. But as consumers, we will pay heavily at the pumps if the US and Russia are colluding on oil prices.
Atif Kubursi is a professor of emeritus, economics, at McMaster University in Canada
This article was originally published on The Conversation.
Read the original article.
It seems like there are quite a few articles circulating (here & elsewhere) that speculate about Russia "ditching" the PRC & entering into an anti-PRC alliance with the US. ALL of them seem to be missing a few things:
1. What does "ditching" China actually look like? Stopping oil/gas supplies? Deploying troops on the border? Decreasing trade with the PRC? Something else? None of these pundits really specify what that would look like.
2. More importantly, what incentive does Russia have to worsen its relationship with the PRC, EVEN IF the US made significant concessions to Russia (be it Ukraine or Syria)? Why wouldn’t Russia pursue a multi-vector policy that plays both powers off against each other for maximum benefit? Are they seriously that afraid of some non-existent "yellow horde mass migration" into Siberia myth?
Until these questions are answered in depth & backed by data, I wouldn’t bet on any significant shift of Russia’s pragmatic multi-vector foreign policy.
lol….no kidding Che……what a nonsense article this was. How ridiculous to assume that Russia and China would dump each other because the beltway believes in it, This writer clearly is clueless.
Wishful thinking masquerading as analysis
You are right!
The important element in the puzzle is that Russia has the upper hand, it’s the US that asked for the meeting. Russia has the bargaining power and not far from bringing down the American Empire. The US has not much to offer except the lifting off the sanction against Russia, but Trump does not have the power domestically to back up his only possible offer.
Interesting article….I’m sure Chinese have done their homework for the next 100 years. By the way,There are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests.
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China and Russia both want the US off the Eurasian landmass.
The days when the UC could pry Russia away from China are long gone. Their relationship runs deep and wide. With Kissinger and Bannon shouting seperating them from the rooftops won’t they be supprsed when it (doesn’t) happens.
It is a multi-polar world now the US has very little to offer compaired to China and the opening up of Central Asia where it lives.
The US gets more pathetic by the day, Pompao talks about "investments" in the "Indo-Pacific" of piddleing amounts, they still have no idea what the BRI even is much less how to deal with it.
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Hongda Jiang….It seems to me you believe Russia will help China to defeat America in war.
Wood Wu – Please re-read my post above; I did NOT make, or EVEN IMPLY such a belief, nor did I even mention armed conflict. Russia will likely play both sides to maximize its own benefits, assuming that the US can successfully enter into a detente & restrain the current escalation of hostilities vs Russia.
That said, there is little indication that even with Trump in office, the US can manage to improve its relations with Russia in concrete ways. If that continues to be the case, Russia has little strategic choice but to expand comprehensive cooperation with China. But even then, I seriously doubt there will be any sort of overt, NATO-like alliance between the two in the near-term.
The colomn makes absurd analysis about Russia ditching China etc. Russia has been in the business of political game for a long time dealing with Asian and European powers. They are not amateurs like Trump! Russia knows that it has to be careful in dealing with China which is a neighbour and riding global power and USA is an outsider!