Politics has a nasty habit of surprising us – especially in a country like China, where there is little transparency and a lot of intrigue. Five months ago, President Xi Jinping jolted his countrymen by abolishing the presidential term limit and signaling his intention to serve for life. But the real surprise was to come later.
At the time of Xi’s announcement, the conventional wisdom was that his dominance inside the Chinese party-state was virtually absolute, and thus that his authority could not possibly come under attack. Xi is now facing the worst summer since he came to power in November 2012, characterized by a steady stream of bad news that has left many Chinese – and especially Chinese elites – feeling disappointed, anxious, angry, helpless, and dissatisfied with their increasingly powerful leader.
The latest piece of bad news, which broke late last month, was the discovery by government investigators that a pharmaceutical company had been producing substandard vaccines for diphtheria, tetanus and whooping cough, and had faked data for its rabies vaccine. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese children nationwide have been given the faulty vaccines.
Of course, China has experienced many similar scandals before – from tainted baby formula to the contamination of the blood-thinning drug heparin – with greedy businessmen and corrupt officials held to account. But Xi has staked considerable political capital on rooting out corruption and strengthening control. The fact that a private company with deep political connections is at the center of the vaccine scandal is painful evidence that Xi’s top-down anti-corruption drive has not been as effective as claimed.
An unintended consequence of Xi’s consolidation of power is that he is accountable for the scandal, at least in the eyes of the Chinese public.
But the backlash against Xi began even before the vaccine revelations. Concerns were rising over the gradual creation of a personality cult.
In recent months, Xi’s loyalists have spared no effort in this regard. The desolate village where Xi spent seven years as a farmer during the Cultural Revolution has been branded as a source of “great knowledge” and become a red-hot tourist destination. For some, this is all too reminiscent of the quasi-divine status attributed to Mao Zedong which, during the “Great Leap Forward” and “Cultural Revolution” resulted in millions of deaths and nearly destroyed the Chinese economy.
And, in fact, the current economic news in China is grim, beginning with a 14% decline in stock prices this year. Three summers ago, in the face of sharply falling stock prices, Xi ordered state-owned companies to buy shares to prop up the market. But as soon as the forced purchases stopped, another market decline followed, this time against a background of depleted foreign-exchange reserves. Xi has not repeated that bit of economic illiteracy this time around, but what will come next for China’s stock market remains an open question.
Though its economic impact has yet to be felt, the clash over trade that US President Donald Trump has initiated is likely to be the toughest challenge Xi Jinping has faced so far, for reasons that extend far beyond the economy
And there is more bad economic news. The renminbi has reached a 13-month low, and while growth in gross domestic product is ostensibly on track to meet the 6.5% target for 2018, the economy is showing signs of weakness. Investment, real-estate sales, and private consumption are all slowing, prompting the government to halt its deleveraging effort and allocate more funds to propping up growth.
The worst economic development, however, is the unfolding trade war with the United States. Though its economic impact has yet to be felt, the clash over trade that US President Donald Trump has initiated is likely to be the toughest challenge Xi has faced so far, for reasons that extend far beyond the economy.
For starters, there is Xi’s promotion of the “China Dream,” which entails the country’s revival as a world power. But, as the trade war makes starkly apparent, China remains deeply dependent on US markets and technology. Far from a rejuvenated hegemon poised to reshape the global economy, Xi’s China has been exposed as a giant with feet of clay.
The geo-strategic implications are difficult to exaggerate. In the 40 years since Deng Xiaoping began to lead China out of the Maoist dark ages, the country has achieved unprecedented economic growth and development. But that progress would have been impossible – or, at least, much slower – were it not for China’s policy of maintaining a cooperative relationship with the US. Xi has upended that policy during his tenure, not least with his increasingly aggressive actions in the South China Sea.
These developments point to a straightforward conclusion: China is headed in the wrong direction. This is not lost on China’s elites, whose frustration is palpable – and rising.
Yet despite rumors of pushback against his power by retired elderly leaders, Xi is unlikely to be overthrown. He remains solidly in control of the Chinese party-state’s security apparatus and the military. Moreover, he has no rivals with the courage or influence genuinely to challenge his authority, as Deng and other veteran revolutionaries did in 1978, when they pushed out Hua Guofeng, Mao’s hand-picked successor as leader of the Communist Party of China.
Nonetheless, the road ahead for Xi remains treacherous. If he stays his current course, so will China, with each stumble reinforcing negative perceptions of his leadership. Yet changing course could also hurt Xi’s reputation, as it would amount to an admission of flawed judgment – a problem for any leader, but especially for a strongman like Xi. And some of the new policies Xi would have to adopt conflict with his instincts and values.
The risks are real. But Xi probably doesn’t have much choice but to face them. As China’s summer of discontent clearly suggests, he needs a new game plan.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2018.
www.project-syndicate.org
The most difficult thing to do on the part of a leader who has the character of a despot, dictator, and authoritarian is for him to change how perceives himself.
Ahhhh,,,finally, ATOL brought back Gordon Chang’s alter ego.
Again, I have to admit I just skimmed thru his crap and I am not disappointed by the half-truths, spin and outright lies.
1) Substandard vaccine – This could not even make a dent on the Merck’s VIOXX scandal a few years ago that killed 40-50k seniors. The empire’s FDA secretly forced Merck to withdraw the poison from the shelves. The FDA head was let go with hardly a slap on the wrist to enjoy his retirement in the carribean. By contrast, the China FDA head in the baby milk scandal was given a bullet to the back of his head.
2) The stock market decline of three summers ago (if I read his crap correctly) was china’s response to a strong RMB against the USD to clear all foreign borrowings that was accrued by the SOEs. This resulted in a massive capital outflow of almost a trillion dollars. The empire media had a "party" trying to paint the situation as "capital flight" that brought down the Shanghai and Shenzen stock markets. The markets eventually recovered and china today is primed and ready to take on the empire in this trade war to the very end. ( Hey, when you have no leverage against me, what the hell are you going to use to hit me, huh?) See, they even anticipated this day will come years ago…So, bring it on urine-face – he loves russian prostitutes to pee on his face! LOL!
3) The current economic news is grim, he said. China just announced first half year growth of 6.8%. (Oh i know, empire trolls here are going to say its fake. Conversely, i don’t know where urine face got his 4% growth from…LOL!) Made-In-China-2025 is progressing at break neck pace. BRI projects too.
4) " China remains deeply dependent on US markets and technology."
He forgot to ask Xilinx who bought a chinese AI company recently. He also forgot to check GM’s sales performance last year. They lost USD 10.7 billion last year worldwide but made USD 13.3 billion in china. So, who is dependent on who?
5) " Far from a rejuvenated hegemon poised to reshape the global economy, Xi’s China has been exposed as a giant with feet of clay."
In september of 2016 after the PCA award to Benigno Aquino III, the empire sent 2 CBGs to the SCS to try to enforce the scam which it knew was illegitimate. XJP marshaled a battle task force comprising of naval assets from the north, east and south sea fleets to confront them. Upon hearing of the task force’s advance to the SCS, the 2 empire CBGs scooted with their tails between their legs silently – no empire media hoopla here.
6) " But that progress would have been impossible – or, at least, much slower – were it not for China’s policy of maintaining a cooperative relationship with the US."
Admittedly china benefitted from its accession to the WTO. But it was the empire that placed the embargo on china from the very first day when Mao proclaimed the people’s republic on Tiananmen square on 1st october 1949. Efforts by china to establish relations with the empire and its pack of poodles were rebuffed until the chief shit stirrer (Henry Kissinger) decided it necessary to enlist china’s help to put down the soviet union. The rest is history and the empire, its poodles and its shylocks also benefitted tremendously from china’s economic development in the last 40 years. Trillions of dollars were made by these shylocks but were never repartriated back home that resulted in urine-face’s adulterated trade figures to accused china of unfair trade.
7) " As China’s summer of discontent clearly suggests, he needs a new game plan."
XJP has got a perfect game plan in so far as economic and development planning is concern.
a) Elimination of absolute poverty by 2020.
b) A moderately prosperous society by 2035.
c) A technically, scientifically and economically strong and properous country by 2049.
To achieve the above, he has Made-in-China-2025 and BRI.
8) " Nonetheless, the road ahead for Xi remains treacherous."
XJP has a public approval rating of over 90%. What is urine-face’s ?
Jason Jean Comrade. Please give me the name of any patriotic Chinaman that is accessing fb and the internet without the CCP permission !
Brandon Hammer Well said comrade, 0.5RMB for you
Brandon Hammer And your opinon on the social credit system ?
And we the Mohammedans in E Turkmenistan are 100% behind the CCP. And our co-religionists can see how happy we are and cant wait to be part of the BRI…
Rohit Pandeya We the Mohammedans in E Turkmenistan are China’s friends. We are happy with the suppression of our religion and the immigration of Chinese settlers. We have already told our co-religionists in Pakistain, Iran, Afghan, Central Asian Republics and the Mid East how wonderful the CCP is.
Ivor Large yet when India or any other developing country pulls those numbers, western media claims that they are well led. But when Mao does it, it’s "the dark ages." Just pointing out the hypocracy.
When you are poor and developing a new economic system, of course you grow fast. Look at Jap or Germany after WW2. If mature economies grow over 2% inflation occurs.
When you’re mature and have grown up (no personal slight intended) you’ll find that out too.
Jason Jean Good, so Chinese are getting access to other information, not just the lies from the CPC.
So whats your opinion of the tainted milk & vacine scandals, as well as Uighurs & Tibetans wanting independence.
Oh and the social credit system ??
A lot of shit happens behind the opaque bamboo curtain which the CPC tries hard to cover up with strict censorship and lets chincom trolls spill their BS on social media. Sadly we all know the emperor has no clothes
Speaking of the Mao "dark ages", Martin Jacques explained that the Chinese economy was growing at an average rate of 5.5% under Mao’s rule. Not as high a rate of growth as under Deng, but way better than most of the U.S.’s history.
Ivor Large your such a paid troll. He accesses it from China from legal VPNs which advertise legally everywhere. 10% of Facebook’s ad revenue comes from Chinese companies, second only to the U.S. That suggests that Chinese businesses know that millions of Chinese people living in China are on Facebook.
Said it for ages. Why is Winnie Xi Pooh being so assertive. Maybe this China miracle is like Germany in the 30’s, built on sand.
0.5RMB for you, comrade. Incidentally how is it you are able to access fb if you live in China ?
I would like to know the names of China’s friends…
Pei is talking like a non-chinese who does not know much about China. Sorry for those who pay him for Chinese "expertise".
My 2-cents opinion is that the US trade war is a sign that the US can’t keep up on its spending anymore. The tariff hike would help reigning on American addition to spending. The undesirable result is that the US will have a hard time to roll over its maturing or new debts.
Good luck, everyone!
There’s a long list of the corrupt who are known crooks which Imran Khan must arrest and throw behind bars. The hard part is to recover the stolen loot from them. Sadly it won’t be easy.
President Xi Jinping is in my opinion to kind and diplomatic. President Xi Jinping should take a stand against US war crimes and bullying in Asia.
China should sell their $1 TRILLION in US bonds and spend it along the “New Silk Road” to create growth and prosperity. Asia has an enormous potential and will give China better return on investment. By buying US Treasury bonds China indirectly funds the US war machine, that destroy countries that are Chinas friends and important future markets.
Sorry, which gweilo would that be?