A new strategic fault line appeared in the Afghan conflict last week when Islamabad hosted an unusual meeting of the heads of the intelligence agencies of Russia, China and Iran on July 11.
Moscow thoughtfully publicized the event both for its optics as well as to pre-empt misperceptions that some sort of zero-sum game might be afoot.
The focus was on joint measures to stop the terrorist group Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K) from threatening the territorial boundaries of the four regional states. In the Russian estimation, there could be up to 10,000 fighters in IS-K’s ranks already and the group is already active in nine of the 34 provinces in Afghanistan.
The four participating countries “reached understanding of the importance of coordinated steps to prevent the trickling of IS terrorists from Syria and Iraq to Afghanistan, where from they would pose risks for neighboring countries.” But they also “stressed the need for a more active inclusion of regional powers in the efforts” to end the war in Afghanistan.
Clearly, the leitmotif is in the latter claim by the regional states seeking a greater say in Afghan peace-making. Three related developments over the weekend also signal the new churning. One, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, General Mohammad Baqeri, started a three-day visit to Islamabad on July 15 at the invitation of Pakistani army chief General Qamar Bajwa.
This is the first time since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 that a chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces visited Pakistan. No doubt, the visit signals Tehran’s appreciation that Pakistan is no longer in the US orbit. General Bajwa visited Tehran in November.
According to the Pakistani readout, General Bajwa noted that Pakistan’s military cooperation with Iran would have a “positive impact on peace and security in the region.” Later, General Baqeri told the Iranian media that the US and its allies seek to weaken security in the region and Iran and Pakistan are “duty-bound to take actions” to safeguard regional peace and security.
There is a history of cross-border terrorism from across the porous Pakistani border in which Tehran suspected the hidden hand of hostile powers. Therefore, today, the Iranian calculus prioritizes the “return” of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to the Afghan chessboard recently, after a prolonged absence, given the geopolitical rivalries playing out in a diverse theatre across the Greater Middle East.
Curiously, although the newfound Saudi-Emirati pro-activism in Afghanistan is coinciding with the steady expansion of IS-K, the two Gulf states today are preoccupied with weakening the Taliban, whom they had mentored in an earlier era in the 1990s. The Kabul government approved on June 6 the deployment of UAE Special Forces to Afghanistan.
On July 11-12, Saudi Arabia hosted an Ulema conference in Jeddah and Mecca, which issued a ‘fatwa’ against the ‘jihad’ waged by the Afghan Taliban. Washington encouraged these parallel Saudi-Emirati moves, which implies a concerted attempt to weaken the Taliban whom the US military failed to defeat, with a view to force it to compromise.
However, on the contrary, a paradigm shift is under way in the regional perceptions regarding the Taliban. The special envoy of the Russian president on Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, disclosed on the weekend that Moscow proposes to invite the Taliban to the second round of the Russian regional initiative on Afghanistan, which is expected to be held sometime late in the summer.
Kabulov characterized the Taliban as a force that has “integrated” with the Afghan nation, and therefore, having a legitimacy, which in some respects even exceeds the Kabul government’s, and controlling more than half the territory of Afghanistan. Kabulov implicitly doubted the representative character of the present Afghan government.
Suffice to say that the Russian policy is incrementally redefining the battle lines in Afghanistan from ‘Taliban versus the Rest’ to ‘Afghanistan versus the IS-K.’ Conceivably, Iran, China and Pakistan are in harmony with the Russian thinking.
The heart of the matter is that while these regional states regard the Taliban as an Afghan movement indigenously rooted in traditional Islam and with a political agenda confined to their homeland, they abhor the IS-K as a brutal terrorist group weaned on Salafi-Wahhabist teaching which casts a seductive appeal to misguided Muslim youth worldwide.
However, in the final analysis, the above interplay needs to be juxtaposed with recent reports that President Trump may order a policy review of his one-year old Afghan strategy. In fact, the sudden visit of the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Kabul on July 9 only reinforced that impression in the region. Unsurprisingly, Pompeo maintained while in Kabul that the Trump administration’s “strategy is working.”
But then, instead of heaping praise on the US military, he instead stressed the urgency of a peace process with the Taliban. Pompeo offered that the US will “support, facilitate and participate in these peace discussions.” He then added meaningfully: “We expect that these peace talks will include a discussion of the role of international actors and forces.”
Vikram Reddy Easier than addressing your own problems and failures
Like the Uighurs ?
Richard Truong Like the CCP
Luca Taramelli I appreciate your concerns regarding Indian silence. But please understand our predicament. To India, both Taliban and ISIS are problems. Taliban is a proxy of Pakistan and has sympathies with the terrorists in Kashmir (India). We understand that what if we get too involved, we will face a violent reaction from Pakistan who virtually owns Afghan Taliban. So our strategy is to keep a low profile and indulge in constructive work like building parliament, dams, roads, electricity transmission lines in Afghanistan at the cost of nearly $ 2 billion. Western powers brought this war to our doorstep, and you shouldn’t be lecturing us on what to do now. We support an Afghan led and Afghan owned peace process and the will of our Afghan friends is our priority.
Regarding this article, it’s strange that you noticed only Indian silence but not Afghan silence. I mean isn’t it ironical that a peace process is being discussed for Afghans without involvement of the democratically elected Afghan Government itself?
Every people love freedom. It’s important not to sell them the faked one.
The way I see terrorism is that the necessary condition for a country to fight it is the country is not afraid of it. I think these four countries pass this test.
Isis is a CIA outfit, bought and paid for by the Saudi’s.
Sawdi money and US logistics, how else.
Ivor Large Because they love to hate.
I think every sensible person wants to remove our soldiers from overseas countries. Let these ‘refugees’ aka chancers fight to make their own countires better – whatever that ‘better’ may be.
Why do Pakistains always end with ….India
How did the Red Brigade move from Italy to Germany… ideas and a stupid bunch of people
But did Mo’ ride on a winged llama to heaven ?
Arthur Micol
Unconnected from reality of Yemen war ……There is a saying amongst ancient Arabs."The bitterest of fruits of the desert is Yemen" Yemen is more formidable than Afghanistan, the Houtis are tenacious fighters, A seven year old boy is expected to handle a gun, America and all its puppets put together along with their Micky Mouse war toys will have to fight for a thousand years in Yemen and still not win….meantime 18 years since NATO and brain dead Americans started a war in Afghanistan and still are so restricted on movements that they don’t venture out of their fortified bases, even to transport supplies they have to bribe the local war lords for movement or a string of IEDs are waiting, the Taliban are openly seen roaming around in Humves and even American tanks……the hill billies are completely out of their dept in islamic lands…..History will remember Syria as the final turning point in the end of western blood soaked dominance….the people of the world should bow down to Syria, Iran, Russia, Pakistan, and Turkey for this momentous achievement.
8 years of bitter bloody Syrian conflict ignited by the immoral west in support of their jew manipulators, its all coming to a head……..I see a huge war before the total collapse of western world. It is in the nature of imperial collapse that a power vacuum is created and violence results before other powers step in to fill the void. America and west will neither win in Afghanistan, nor succeed in Yemen? Iran, Pakistan Turkey, Russia and china are big boys and cannot be pushed around………Let America decide if it want to go down with a bang or a whimper….but go down it will, this is the ground reality of real politick the rest is Fake news.
Lone sane voice in a sea of madness (called India) – MKB.
How did the ISIS move into Afghanistan from Iraq and Syria?
Yes you are right Falk, and opium production has increased some 20 folds since US/NATO invasion…And we know who recently brought ISIS in AFPAK… the same guys profiting from opium and war money…. But to stay more specific on this article, I hear a deafening silence from India, shame on its rulers
Isis is not salafi- wahhabist movement, they’re fools
This is the best news in a long time. The region has suffered a lot, Afghanistan and Pakistan has had thousands of people killed in the US “war on terror”. The US is according to Chinese and Russian intelligence bin running terrorist training centers. in Northern Pakistan for terrorism in former Soviets, Iran, and along the “New silk road”.
The US has lost 3,000 fine young soldiers in this war and 100,000 fine young Americans due to alleged CIA smuggling of heroin to fund more regime changes in the region. I have been listening to several interviews with ISI directors, General Gul, politician Imran Kahn, and the people of Pakistan has spoken a long time ago, STOP the US drone attacks and US supply lines through Pakistan.
Taliban has surrounded the US forces and controls 65% of Afghanistan and created a parallel state. And guess what? No Taliban genocide of political opponents and girls can continue to go to school. It seems like the West once again has been duped by the MSM.
To bring the US troops safely home would be a victory for President Trump and the US tax payers too! Another election promise fulfilled by President Trump.
When the elections in Pakistan is over this month and a new Government is in place committed, Russia and China should help Pakistan to get out of the economic problems created by the US “war on terror” and corruption. Pakistan has a lot of potential and there has been a lot of “brain drain” where well educated and hard-working Pakistanis has been forced to go abroad looking for jobs.
My theory is that the Afghan people want freedom and independence more than 7/11, Burger King, and McDonalds. Who Knew? Not the Zionist in Washington that is for sure.