The key take away from the BRICS summit in Johannesburg is that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – important Global South players – strongly condemn unilateralism and protectionism.
The Johannesburg Declaration is unmistakable: “We recognize that the multilateral trading system is facing unprecedented challenges. We underscore the importance of an open world economy.”
Closer examination of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech unlocks some poignant details.
Xi, crucially, emphasizes delving further into “our strategic partnership.” That implies increased BRICS and Beyond BRICS multilateral trade, investment and economic and financial connectivity.
And that also implies reaching to the next level; “It is important that we continue to pursue innovation-driven development and build the BRICS Partnership on New Industrial Revolution (PartNIR) to strengthen coordination on macroeconomic policies, find more complementarities in our development strategies, and reinforce the competitiveness of the BRICS countries, emerging market economies and developing countries.”
If PartNIR sounds like the basis for an overall Global South platform, that’s because it is.
In a not too veiled allusion to the Trump administration’s unilateral pullout from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), Xi called all parties to “abide by international law and basic norms governing international relations and to settle disputes through dialogue and differences through consultation,” adding that the BRICS are inevitably working for “a new type of international relations.”
Relations such as these certainly do not include a superpower unilaterally imposing an energy export blockade – an act of economic war – on an emerging market and key actor of the Global South.
Xi is keen to extol a “network of closer partnerships.” That’s where the concept of BRICS Plus fits in. China coined BRICS Plus last year at the Xiamen summit, it refers to closer integration between the five BRICS members and other emerging markets/developing nations.
Argentina, Turkey and Jamaica are guests of honor in Johannesburg. Xi sees BRICS Plus interacting with the UN, the G20 “and other frameworks” to amplify the margin of maneuver not only of emerging markets but the whole Global South. So how does Iran fit into this framework?
An absurd game of chicken
Immediately after President Trump’s Tweet of Mass Destruction the rhetorical war between Washington and Tehran has skyrocketed to extremely dangerous levels.
To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 23, 2018
Major General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force – and a true rock star in Iran – issued a blistering response to Trump: “You may begin the war, but it is us who will end it.”
The IRGC yields massive economic power in Iran and is in total symbiosis with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. It’s no secret the IRGC never trusted President Rouhani’s strategy of relying on the JCPOA as the path to improve Iran’s economy. After the unilateral Trump administration pullout, the IRGC feels totally vindicated.
The mere threat of a US attack on Iran has engineered a rise in oil prices. US reliance on Middle East Oil is going down while fracking – boosted by higher prices – is ramping up. The threat of war increases with Tehran now overtly referring to its power to cripple global energy supplies literally overnight.
In parallel the Houthis, by forcing the Yemen-bombing House of Saud to stop oil shipments via the Bab al-Mandeb port, are configuring the Strait of Hormuz and scores of easily targeted pipelines as even more crucial to the flow of energy that makes the West tick. If there ever was a US attack on Iran, Persian Gulf analysts stress only Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela might be able to provide enough oil and gas to make up for lost supplies to the West. That’s not exactly what the Trump administration is looking for.
Iranian “nuclear weapons” was always a bogus issue. Tehran did not have them – and was not pursuing them. Yet now the highly volatile rhetorical war introduces the hair-raising possibility of Tehran perceiving there is a clear danger of a US nuclear attack or an attack whose purpose is to destroy the nation’s infrastructure. If cornered, there’s no question the IRGC would buy nuclear weapons on the black market and use them to defend the nation.
This is the “secret” hidden in Soleimani’s message. Besides, Russia could easily – and secretly – supply Iran with state-of-the-art defensive missiles and the most advanced offensive missiles.
This absurd game of chicken is absolutely unnecessary for Washington from an oil strategy point of view – apart from the intent to break a key node of Eurasia integration. Assuming the Trump administration is playing chess, it’s imperative to think 20 moves ahead if “winning” is on the cards.
If a US oil blockade on Iran is coming, Iran could answer with its own Strait of Hormuz blockade, producing economic turmoil for the West. If this leads to a massive depression, it’s unlikely the industrial-military-security complex will blame itself.
There’s no question that Russia and China – the two key BRICS players – will have Iran’s back. First there’s Russia’s participation in Iran’s nuclear and aerospace industries and then the Russia-Iran collaboration in the Astana process to solve the Syria tragedy. With China, Iran as one of the country’s top energy suppliers and plays a crucial role in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Russia and China have an outsize presence in the Iranian market and similar ambitions to bypass the US dollar and third-party US sanctions.
Beam me up, Global South
The true importance of the BRICS Johannesburg summit is how it is solidifying a Global South plan of action that would have Iran as one of its key nodes. Iran, although not named in an excellent analysis by Yaroslav Lissovolik at the Valdai Club, is the quintessential BRICS Plus nation.
Once again, BRICS Plus is all about constituting a “unified platform of regional integration arrangements,” going way beyond regional deals to reach other developing nations in a transcontinental scope.
This means a platform integrating the African Union (AU), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as well as the South Asian Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).
Iran is a future member of the SCO and has already struck a deal with the EAEU. It’s also an important node of the BRI and is a key member, along BRICS members India and Russia, of the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), essential for deeper Eurasia connectivity.
Lissovolik uses BEAMS as the acronym to designate “the aggregation of regional integration groups, with BRICS Plus being a broader concept that incorporates other forms of BRICS’ interaction with developing economies.”
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has defined BRICS Plus and BEAMS as the “most extensive platform for South-South cooperation with a global impact.” The Global South now does have an integration road map. If it ever happened, an attack on Iran would be not only an attack on BRICS Plus and BEAMS but on the whole Global South.
Wars were fought mostly on false pretences and the coming war on Iran is a classical case of hubris and false pretences. But this time if this war happens then it will be war between two sets of humans one who stands with arrogance of power accompanying moral decadence against the humans who are mostly defensive to preserve their life of piety and adherence to moral values. Ordinary SWAT analysis foretells that there is going to be no war but one never knows what else can be fall from upon humanity from ordinariness of the American leadership.
Mr. Escobar too optimistic about Moscow’s policy towards Iran, unfortunately. And he was too serious about the fact that Russian experts said to him. In reality, Russia has already de facto joined sanctions against Iran.
It is a pity that Mr. Escobar ignores this circumstance. Today, the only hope for Tehran is Beijing’s position. But this moment has its own nuances.
It’s worth considering that the global energy equation has been significantly altered, trade agreements among nations have never been static, nations always maneuver for advantage, likewise security arrangements, nations rise and fall. Arithmetic is helpful, how many people have migrated to Iran in the last few decades for example, following the money is helpful too, where are the global financial resources being invested? History is just one damn thing after another somebody once said
Would be interesting to see some facts here please…
Remember this: America’s problems mainly come from America itself, its greed. Blaming others or finding scapegoats is not going to help solving the problems, but making the problem worse. Be honest to yourself.
In case you are not able to focus,here is some help: this forum is about America and World’s economic issues.
Richard Truong from the July20, 2018 Oilprice article:
"Russia is proposing a production boost in the third quarter by 1.5 million bpd, and then the partners in the OPEC+ deal will see how the oil market fares at the end of Q3, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in Saudi Arabia on Saturday after a meeting with Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih.
Russia’s oil companies are eager to turn the taps on and benefit from newly developed fields, and some of the biggest oil companies are said to have started to increase, little by little, their production."
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russia-Gears-Up-To-Boost-Oil-Production-In-July.html
Russia would not be proposing an increase in oil production if it was strongly trying to support Iran. Also, as much as I like reading Mr. Escobar’s articles, nobody is ever going to sell nuclear weapons to Iran. Mr. Escobar is overstating the Irian position which is relatively weak. Still, I don’t see any military solutions to this. The two primary countries with an interest in supporting Iran are China and India.
I think that if the USA, a nuclear power, threatens Iran , not a nuclear power with nuclear weapons then China and Russia should step up to the plate and sell Iran enough nuclear weapons to assure deterrence. Plus Russia should be supplying iran with state of the art air defences right now. Trump is crazy enough to attack Iran on a whim. iran`s allies need to make sure that the US undestands that it would suffer as a result of that attack.
Russia may or may not be favoured by the economic sanctions on Iran. Same Russia will not like Iran to be attacked, true that no nation will sell nuclear weapons to Iran, there won’t be a nuclear war with Iran in the first place. China and Russia will support Iran if a war breaks out by selling defensive weapons to the Islamic republic. Iran will not be left to stand alone amongst hostile entities like the US, UAE and Israel
Douglas Houck
You may have your logic upside down: if Russia supports oil production boost, it means Russia is willing a price cut. Sanctioning Iran oil means oil price increase in general. So your argument that Russia sanctions Iran does not stand.
Art Laramee
You just showed that you can’t support your point.
Many Americans are loyal to someone they barely know and know even less about his true intention, which always sounds grand on the surface, such as patriotism, freedom for the World, etc. But if these Americans could grow a little smarter some day, they would feel betrayed and screwed.
Michael Chan,
Agreed. The West, especially the Anglasaxon, uses the logic of war while many countries, including China, use the logic of peace. As a result, it does not matter what China does, it would be interpreted as having evil intention. At the same time, the West, especially the Anglo Saxon are full of themselves and their limitless hypocracy that even their aggression can be twisted to be caused by the victims.
BRICS is actually quite weak. Brazil can be a trojan horse for the US as it is subject to right wing coups backed by the US. Similar comment applies to Argentina in observer role.
Relations between China and India is critical but there are many critical issues between these 2 behemoths.
In many of the BRICS countries corruption is rampant which weakens the whole organisation.
Hopefully everything will work out alright.
The new world order will be shaped by common visions. In this respect, BRICS Summits, Shangai Economic Cooperation and Eurasian Economic Union have a great potential to determine the future of world politics. China has been growing as a world economic power and USA cannot continue to control balance of global policy alone. Washington ought to realize Russian power in order to share its global responsibility and form a balance of power against China. On the other hand, Turkey should contribute to solving international crises with these international organizations. Thus, common visions with corporate states would enhance Turkey’s position and pave the way to produce corporate politics with regard to Turkey’s national interests with jointly efforts.
Drump’s stupid attitude toward Iran (fostered by Israel) will get
the U.S. in all kinds of trouble. Drump should go back to golf
courses and tacky glitzy hotels; that’s where he belongs.
USA is acting as a barbarian and rogue state, where the military force prevail in all international relations with the resto of the world.
USA is doing the zionist dirty job; killing all the enemies of Israel.
Richard Truong THE HELSINKI SUMMIT IN THAT 2 HR MEETING WITH PUITN AND TRUMP.ITS IN THE TWEET THAT TRUMP MADE ON SUNDAY AFTER. HE STATED TWO THINGS DICUSSED ONE ""ISRAELI SECURTIY""’ DON;T COUNT ON RUSSIA TO BE A SAVIOR FOR IRAN. NETANYAHU MET WITH PUTIN TWO DAYS BEFORE THE SUMMIT. ISRAEL IS WHAT ALL THIS IS ABOUT, TO HELL WITH THE OIL!!!
and you know that they did because Bibi showed you the drawing , yes?
Question….which nation’s are getting ready to join BRICS+? It’s real easy. It’s the nation’s whose currencies are falling the most versus the USD. Think Iran, Turkey and Venezuela. The US’s attacks on these nations via the corrupt, rigged FX markets will only hasten the end of the USD-dominated system.