It is an anxious time for Taiwan. China’s People’s Liberation Army is flying bombers around the island, openly simulating attacks on Taiwanese targets, and threatening that it won’t wait for reunification forever; it hopes to scare the island into submission beforehand.
The worrisome thing is that Beijing’s Warrior President Xi Jinping seems to be talking himself into a fight. And PLA generals – flush with new weapons and hardware – might be egging him on.
However, there are multiple reasons a war with Taiwan will not – or at least, should not – happen.
A big, bloody risk
If it came to a cross-strait showdown, China could certainly hammer Taiwan, and probably seize the island. But it would come at massive costs in lives, gold and goodwill.
It is widely established that countries that start wars wildly underestimate the costs, but they all think it’ll be different for them. Given this, one hopes Xi isn’t hearing the Chinese version of the German generals of 1914 promising the Kaiser that he could be in Paris in a week.
An assault on Taiwan won’t be something started on Thursday and finished on Monday. Nor will it be business as usual after a couple of weeks, with everything forgotten and US-bound shiploads of plastic Santa Clauses and iPhones resuming.
An assault on Taiwan won’t be something started on Thursday and finished on Monday. Nor will it be business as usual after a couple of weeks, with everything forgotten and US-bound shiploads of plastic Santa Clauses and iPhones resuming
For starters, Taiwan can bite back even though the military balance heavily favors the People’s Republic. Taiwan’s vanilla military is competent. Asymmetrically, it boasts formidable cyber-warfare capabilities. And there is the added morale heft Taipei can leverage: Free people fighting for their lives.
Even worse for Xi, the United States will probably step in – despite a 45-year track record of appeasement. The US is finally waking up to the threat faced by the island democracy – as evidenced by recent passage of the Taiwan Travel Act calling for increased support for Taiwan. The bill passed with overwhelming bipartisan support, including, remarkably, politicians who loathe and resist US President Donald Trump on every other matter.
The likelihood of US involvement is 100% once Americans are killed – as they will be if Taiwan is hit. Nothing unifies Americans more. While the PLA is upgrading its military, notably its expeditionary capabilities, the US military is still tremendously powerful. Chinese submarines, ships, and aircraft will go down, together with the only-children manning them.
There is an added risk for Beijing. What if Tokyo recognizes that Japan’s first line of defense is Taiwan? The Japan Self-Defense Forces are professional, well equipped and formidable – particularly the Japanese navy with its submarine and anti-submarine warfare units.
The combined blue-water capabilities of Washington and Tokyo means that to recover Taiwan, Beijing might face the loss of its “string of pearls” – its far-flung overseas bases.
While Cambodia, Russia, Iran and North Korea won’t complain about an attack on Taiwan, other countries will. Even those who have overlooked much in exchange for Chinese money – including the European Union – just might be galvanized against the PRC, out of principle, embarrassment or fear.
And though it is often a fact of domestic politics that nations rally around leaders once the shooting starts, as casualties, hardships and expenses mount, the Chinese public and Xi’s rivals might blame “Xi Jinping Thought” for their problems.
Economic vulnerabilities
Beyond the butchers’ bill of dead sons and fathers, the Chinese economy will be hammered. Today’s US-PRC “trade war” might result in trade reductions; attack Taiwan, and China’s global trade will lurch to a near halt. The PRC’s Belt and Road project and its Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will be on hold for a long, long while.
Chinese companies that can produce without US components and technology will be making products nobody will buy. Further stifling trade, shipping insurance rates will skyrocket – assuming anyone offers coverage – as Lloyds of London causes as much harm to the Chinese merchant fleet as the US Air Force.
China will be cut out of the US dollar system. For Americans, the allure of cheap Chinese goods at Walmart will fade, and even Wall Street bankers will realize they are, after all, flag-flying Americans. Chinese researchers will be sent home, joint ventures halted, foreign investments curtailed.
Beijing’s firms will be left to do business with such economic powerhouses as North Korea, Myanmar, Cambodia and Russia; even the Russians will probably strike hard bargains if they sense that China is in trouble.
Taiwan is not Tiananmen
Xi shouldn’t count on China’s treatment of Taiwan being forgotten. True, the world got over the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre soon enough. Why so? There was global optimism and relief in the 1980s as China pivoted away from the blood-soaked lunacy of the Mao Zedong era. Wishful thinking helped many Westerners – including US president George H W Bush – excuse the Tiananmen massacre as a one-time “mistake,” a blip on the path toward a better future.
There were confident expectations that China’s integration into the global economy would lead to political loosening. That did not happen. China squandered much international goodwill and created adversaries where none had existed.
If China chose to attack Taiwan – free, democratic, and for all practical purposes independent – the response of most of the world would be different and long-lasting. It would risk undoing decades of progress, ruining China financially and reputationally. There would be catastrophic ripple effects worldwide.
It’s now President Xi’s choice. He could try to make China the kind of place Taiwan might want to become part of, rather than waving a big stick whenever local politicians start talking independence.
And looking on the bright side, it’s historically rare to have a newly powerful country like China, in which successful people, even at the top, scheme to place their wealth, and ideally a family member or two, in a nation – and/or its allies – against which war is contemplated.
This odd fact alone ought to militate against striking Taiwan and risking a fight with the Americans.
Unfortunately, authoritarian regimes don’t always behave rationally. It’s all about power and keeping it. Playing to historic resentments and lashing outward unifies and distracts from domestic problems. It’s easy to believe a short, sharp war will stun other countries and present them with a fait accompli they’ll have to live with.
Many Westerners fret over anything that might provoke Beijing. But Beijing makes its own decisions. To help Xi get the calculation right, the strategy should be: No appeasement. Help Taiwan defend itself. Make it clear that the freedoms Taiwan represents are core interests of the US and the free world, worth fighting for.
Xi and his party are celebrating Karl Marx’ 200th birthday. They might also consider another German (actually, Austrian) political figure. He tried to recover “lost territories” and rejuvenate his country. Instead, he brought another European concept, Götterdämmerung, upon himself, his nation, and much of the world.
Your call, President Xi.
China is ruled by CCP and the PLA is accouintable to it, not the Chinese people. CCP is the government! It is here in the present but in spirit it is still in the past, the Imperial China of old. It exhibit a different name but is very much the same nature as the old. China is looking back to its past glorious Imperial rule and aim to bring back when China rules the world as the single super power. The world is a different place now, but it does not matter to them. China always kept refering back to that chapter in their recent history when they were humillated by the world powers, invaded and subjugated into submission. They want retributions. The present world organizations and institutions does not matter and they will use and recognize them if it is to their advantage but ignore them to if it hinders their ultimate objectives. That makes today’s China very dangerous as it aims revenge and world domination although they will no less deny that until it becomes irreversible. It is dangerous as it is racist. They always pride themselves of being civilized ahead of the rest of humanity, when they say we were all still cave and tree dwelling primitives (monkeys).
Chinese should stop trying to coerce others to bend to it’s will. Already, Tibet, Xinjiang and Hong Kong are unhappy under Chinese rule. Taking Taiwan by force would only add to their problems. And wars do not always go the way that the attackers hope. American war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Russia’s war in Afghanistan and Chinese war with Vietnam are all good enough examples.
Chan Kuo-min Joe Chan: I’m not here to argue nor take side, the only reality I see here is western nation trying to spread their influence far away from their shore using any willing tools within a community or family to achieve that. Otherwise what stops two brothers from finding compromise and live together instead of borrowing foreign ideology that threatens to bring death and destruction to each other while the hands behind the ideology and the threat is far away. Like I v said we Africans are suffering today because of similar mistakes willing tools permitted in the past. We are suffering from decades of wars, corruption and bad leadership orchestrated by the west yet the west is growing everyday. To cut my long story short, China and Taiwan are brothers, Chinese and Neaibours, nothing by any means relates them to Americans but Chinese, then why will chinese fight each other over Americans while America will not feel any pain at all if both fights each other. A word is enough for a wise and I feel president XI and who ever is in charge in Taiwan can all soften their stance and work something out.
Afolabi Oluwaseun Deji, Stay out of your "ivory tower", and search for more new realities. Don’t be just a troll and flunkey of any authoritarian countries.
Chan Kuo-min Joe Chan I wish Japs annexed China badly should continue so that there is no bully in the town….
How many Chinese are there in usa,and other part of western countries kick them off before they create a bigger problem.
Though I frawn at wars and any military intervention as a means to resolve any issue, however it is very shameful and hypocritical the way journalist with western oriented propaganda writes article to dillegitimise other nation from taking appropriate measures to encourage national unity, prevent internal crisis and act against dissident actions within their own country. Yet this same sets of journalist cheers and write every articles to support unjust America’s military intervention and western support for unjust military aggression on other sovereign nations.
It is enough to say journalist are part and guilty of all the war crime committed by Americans and their allies.
..possibly will desolve the 9dash line and ruin all the reclaimed islands! ASEAN to include India & Japan will possibly form an allied forces.. Xi your option prevails to attack Taiwan.
Excellent article wars never end well or go as planned.
Good read…
No need to invade unless china needs a war to distract its people in a crisis.china can make life v hard for taiwan economically;it hasn’t even tried so far.when it does,Taiwan will suffer.already the tsai government is losing support fast.maybe they will steal a second term like in 2004? In two years though i think voters will have had enough of the incompetent Dpp
John Holies Anumba, Plus Japan, S.Korea and India at least.
no they aren’t. much too theoretical young man.
A Vietnamese and at the same time a China’s brownnoser/bootlicker/spokesman ? A bizarre combination.
Your ignorance about Taiwan so blatant, you need to read more.
Part of which China for centries? different China dynasty is like different country, even ruling by different races. How can PRC shamelessly claim Machurian’s Qing Empire territoy? They fought for it.
why is this guy still on Asia times payroll? clearly he is just a neocon propagandist.
Does the US allow Hawaii claim to be independent given the fact the US annexed Hawaii in 1989 after a U.S. military-backed coup deposed Queen Liliuokalani in 1893? In contrast, Taiwan has been a part of china for centuries, so the US involment in the Taiwan is a foreign inteference in China domestic issue.
"And there is the added morale heft Taipei can leverage: Free people fighting for their lives."
That, alone, shows the lack of understanding about Taiwan situation. The rest of the article is just exaggeration, fearmongering and bluffing.
China is not about to attack Taiwan in a whim. It’s been sending warnings, increasingly stern ones, that Taiwan and its supporters do not cross the redlines, or face the consequences.
A very good article.
It’s a price China is prepared to pay. Is US ready to keep paying to defence Taiwan. China will not stop until it has Taiwan, as many rounds of conflicts as it may take.