The past month has seen significant activities in Nepal’s diplomatic sphere, starting from Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli’s state visit to India as well as Foreign Minister Pradeep Kumar Gyawali’s visit to China. To cap it off, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is due to arrive in Nepal on May 11. Oli’s visit to China is also on the horizon and a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Nepal some time this year cannot be discounted.
The Indian side left no stones unturned in according a very warm welcome to Oli, as New Delhi was keen to improve the strained relations he had with India in the aftermath of the economic blockade it imposed in 2015. Consequently the nationalist election campaign led by Oli resulted in the Left Alliance gaining a two-thirds majority in parliament.
India has realized by now that the use of coercive diplomacy severely dented bilateral relations. Therefore, India wants to revamp its image in Nepal, and Modi’s reciprocal visit within a month of Oli’s visit to India signals the urge and necessity to do so.
India has realized by now that the use of coercive diplomacy severely dented bilateral relations. Therefore, India wants to revamp its image in Nepal, and Modi’s reciprocal visit within a month of Oli’s visit to India signals the urge and necessity to do so
Historically, India has always had political and economic influence in Nepal. However, the recent Chinese overtures in Nepal are not much to India’s liking. The agreement made by Nepal with China to join its global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become a major concern for India as it would increase the Chinese role and influence in Nepal. Hence it would be fair to assume that Modi will be making every effort to woo Oli away from China.
Nepal’s foreign policy has traditionally been influenced by the geopolitical dynamics between India and China. Because of an open border and the ease of cross-border connectivity, Nepal is asymmetrically dependent on India for trade and economic activities. In contrast, the Himalayan terrain has posed difficulties in connectivity between Nepal and China. This scenario might change for the benefit of Nepal if the past agreements related to enhancing connectivity and transit with China are implemented.
The biggest question, however, is whether the Oli government will move ahead with implementing the accords or if India will give concessions to Oli in hopes of delaying the Chinese projects.
India would ideally want the second scenario to unfold, but it would be in the best interests of Nepal if it moved ahead with diversifying its connectivity and transit options.
During Gyawali’s recent China visit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed the creation of a trans-Himalayan network connecting China, Nepal and India. Furthermore, he emphasized the need for China and India to support Nepal’s development so that Nepal could serve as a bridge between China and India.
Wang’s remarks bear special geopolitical significance and must surely have not gone unnoticed in New Delhi. While Nepal has agreed to become part of the BRI, India is opposed to China’s project. Unless all three countries find a common ground, it will be difficult for the idea of trilateralism to take off.
Ties between China and India seem to be on the mend after the Doklam crisis with the informal meeting of Modi and Xi that took place recently in Wuhan, China. The camaraderie between the two leaders should be treated with cautious optimism, as the divergent strategic interests and territorial issues between the two countries outweigh the possibility of perceiving each other as true friends in the long run.
Unless India decides to join the China-led BRI, talks of a possible new world order will be premature. Nevertheless, the initiative should be appreciated, as both these nuclear neighbors have felt the need to cooperate with each other, which is essential for maintaining peace, stability and prosperity in the entire region.
The upcoming visit by Modi to Nepal can be analyzed from various angles. There is no doubt that the primary aim of his visit is to reassure that relations between Nepal and India are back to normal after the blockade, although India has never admitted that it had imposed any sort of blockade.
The landslide victory of the Left Alliance in the Nepalese elections necessitated that India suspend the policy of carrying the constitutional amendment agenda of the Madesh-based parties for the time being so as to improve its relations with the Oli government. In a symbolic gesture, Modi is being sympathetic to the Madesh-based parties by arriving first at Janakpur, the capital of the province and where these parties run the provincial government.
Considering the upcoming Indian parliamentary elections in 2019, Modi will try to project an image that portrays him as regaining Nepal’s faith as part of his “neighborhood first” policy. Projects related to the India-funded Arun III hydropower plant and rail connectivity up to Kathmandu are expected to gain fresh impetus after Modi’s visit in view of his country’s competing with similar Chinese projects.
Modi must be aware by now that nationalism is one of the core attributes of every Nepali citizen due to the proud fact that Nepal was never colonized in its history. The Indian blockade severely dented that sentiment and hit the daily lives of the Nepali people in utter disregard of the rights of landlocked countries as guaranteed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Nepal has reiterated on several occasions that any sort of activity against India will not be allowed to emanate from its soil. If Modi really wants to reinvigorate ties with Nepal, he needs to push the reset button and be more accommodating.
Efforts should be made to respect Nepal’s sovereignty in earnest and not engage in petty border encroachments or micromanagement of state affairs.
The Indian establishment’s mindset that advancement of ties between Nepal and China is directed against India is totally unfounded and biased, as Nepal has always sought cooperation with all and confrontation with none.
Oli came to power riding on a wave of nationalist sentiments and promising to diversify Nepal’s trade and transit options. Every country places importance on its national interests. Therefore, the national interest of Nepal would be best served if Oli kept his promise and expedited trade, transit and connectivity with China. Oli’s image in Nepal will suffer if he decides to abandon the goals he set earlier.
India should stop worrying about Nepal’s ties with China, as Indo-Nepalese ties are unique and time-tested because of deep geographical, historical, cultural and familial linkages.
Nepal would surely benefit if China and India maintained friendly relations with each other and assisted in Nepal’s quest for economic development after decades of political instability.
I think India should not object to the fact Nepal intends to have friendship or projects with any one. However, its Indian right , if any project cause security concern, then Indians are free to not participate it and probably seal the borders or force India to buy power from the projects. Its fair as Nepal is concerned with sovereignty issues , similarly same logic should be accorded to India. If Nepal tries to play India against China, then India should say to Nepal…since you feel happy with CHina..please go ahead…. Its simple as that. But the special relationship where Nepalese are allowed to work in India may unfortunately will be closed…..as there could be other concerns and special relationship will end….
SO my two paisa advice …being smart and cunning is good…if too cunning… then also its not assist. Its counter productive. Frankly Nepal is more Indian like and are brothers. But clapping is done by both the hands.
Nepal with dignity and passion will continue to develop in its pace . PM KP Oli will never underestimate the truth that Nepal was betrayed by Indian from years back and China finds its own interests in each commitment it makes for Nepal. Even if leader like Oli himslf surrenders with Modi ji : our people’s unity in diversity will keep us strong within. Give respect and take respect. We are still Nepalese who never lost faith in ourselves.
For unexplained reason, the author has chosen to be far too generous with India when he says that Nepal should not allow its territory to be used against Indian security interest. In fact, it has always been India that has posed security threats to Nepal, so much so that she even unabashedly hosted, aided and abetted the Nepali Maoists–who went on to slaughter 18,000 innocent fellow citizens– even as India officially called them terrorists with the ulterior intent of misleading world opinion. While India aspires to become a permanent member of the world’s highest peace making body, the UN Security Council, her destabilizing activities in Nepal taken together with LTTE in Sri Lanka and other RAW interventions in other neighboring counties, instead makes New Delhi the epicenter of terrorism in South Asia. Besides, Nepal should not complain about Indian atrocities too much, because she treats her own downtrodden no better. Lately, one Western write up, quoting Indian observers, said the country has two parts, one is the India of the tiny sliver of increasingly prosperous elites, and the other is the Bharat of the impoverished rural masses among whom thousands are forced to commit suicide every year. It is because of such neglect that one now hears a murmur about India’s South possibly opting to secede from the "Indian Union" at some point. Given such overwhelming negatives at work, this time around Nepalese are not going to be sway by Modijee’s sweet talks and un-kept promises. If he honestly wants to promote goodwill with Nepal, more than his so-called "surprise gifts" for Nepal, he should be doing two things unequivocally. Firstly, he must apologize for his brazen step of blockading earthquake devastated Nepal in 2015. Secondly, there is a small cabal of first generation Indian immigrant, self-declared "Bharatbadi" Madhesi politicians whom India has always been using as its Trojan horses in Nepal, so much so that they were even made to sit at the Raxaul border to mislead the world in the India’s blockade of their own country, Nepal. Modijee must tell them in no uncertain terms that India is no longer interested in them and that they must honestly go by the allegiance they had sworn when they had obtained Nepal’s citizenship somehow
Very well summarized, yet what holds in the future has to unfold with time….At present ,the atmosphere is optimistic ,but as you mention a true friendship has to be earned bby mutual respect. The only problem is trust and in this environment it is frankly fragile……
Dear Vk Jain, I am a Nepali citizen working in India, and have been a big beneficiary of what you call Nepalese can work in India. If you go by World Bank data, the situation is different. India and Nepal both enjoy that facility, and India has net benefit. Nepal is net employer when it comes to employing people from other side. Nepal has contributed to USD 5.3 B of remittance to India, and received USD 3.8 B. The very thought to consider that bilateral benefit has benefited Nepal and not benefitted India is shortsighted.
Bhupendra Khanal sir, your stastistics of 2 billion net benefit to India due to Nepal… I think you have not got the meaning of my message. Do you really think 2 billion makes a big difference to country like India or say full 5 billion? But I am sure job for you ( i am saying with due respect to you) and 3.8 billion makes a difference for Nepal. If Nepal can get that benefit from other countries, please go ahead..What I am alluding ( and you missed), that relationship needs to be good for people to work in another country.
By giving gaalis to India, it benefits no one. We have leftists , maoisits and other like them who regularly give gallis to their other motherland but they are still Indians. It is unacceptable for us if a country give gaali to us and still want its people to come to India without visa. It must end then and also other projects can create security risks. Like this author and many keep on harping of sovereign right of Nepal, and this is India’s sovereign right to allow or not allow any other people without visa. I think we don’t need to ask that to Nepal or Nepalese.
Also other countries should accept Nepalese people as well if they are true friends for all kinds of jobs and that should be without visa…. How many countries are willing to accept that like that for last 70 years India has done. I think no one and No one will… So Nepalese want to see dreams shown by others, please go ahead, but please demand your pound of flesh, and dont be naive.
Rohit Pandeya the poorness of Pakistan and Sri Lanka has common thread, the conflicts instigated by India. India is the cancer of the south Asia, who bring only disasters to its neighbors.