Maritime experts from the US, Japan and Germany voiced worries at a panel hosted by the Atlantic Council in Washington last week that China is escalating its military pressure against Taiwan.
Sarah Kirchberger, a panelist from the Institute for Security Policy at Germany’s Kiel University, reportedly noted in response to a question that a senior Chinese naval officer had written, “We should do what Putin did in Crimea to Taiwan.”
The security concerns at the Friday conference follow a stern warning from Chinese President Xi Jinping last month that Taiwan will face the “punishment of history” if it makes any move toward separatism. A retired People’s Liberation Army general also said recently that Taiwan could be taken in three days if Beijing moved militarily against what it considers a renegade province.
Kirchberger and two other panelists – Tetsuo Kotani, a senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, and John Watts, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security – all agreed that China looks at Taiwan as Russia regarded Crimea, a key territory and a jumping-off point from which to assert its power in the Asia-Pacific region.
The panelists said that if China were to take over Taiwan, it would have direct access to the Western Pacific and would also be able to extend its influence in the East and South China Seas.
They further noted that China was stepping up its submarine presence in the East China Sea and use of aerial drones for intelligence collection purposes. Beijing is also said to be engaging in almost daily probes of Japan’s air defense networks.
Simulated cruise missile attacks on Japan
The flights reportedly include simulated cruise missile attacks on the Japanese mainland. The probing missions by Chinese planes are also said to be increasing the strain on Japanese fighters. This is raising a possibility that US Air Force planes from Okinawa will be called in to help with the intercepts.
Kirchberger didn’t identify the Chinese naval official who advocated a Crimea-like action against Taiwan. But Zhang Wenmu, a noted Chinese naval strategist, praised Russian President Vladimir Putin’s action against Ukraine in an essay published in late 2014. Zhang also asserted that China should follow Putin’s lead in adopting a similar muscular policy stance against the US.
President Donald Trump’s new national security adviser, John Bolton, is a strong opponent of the United States’ “One China” policy. A “very high-ranking” US State Department official is expected to visit Taiwan in June to officiate at the opening of the new compound of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), Washington’s de facto embassy in Taipei’s Neihu district, according to Liberty Times and the Taipei Times, which cited a Taiwanese government official.
It’s not like Crimea-if they do it they will face soon or later inside opposition,which means trouble,probably means a factor of instability for China itself,North and South.That’s not where all empires fail?See Soviet Union,Yugoslavia,Ireland,,Basks and now Catalonian. History moves steadily but more slower than we antecipa-te,the bigger the empires the more instable!
in this real world,which side do you think need to put more effort to accomodate and understand the position of the other side….side with 30 million people or the side of 1.4 billion people.
Yi-Hsin Huang unfortunately for the Taiwanese, the UN overwhelmingly recognize island of taiwan as part of China, never mind the 1.3b of Chinese. Maybe the Taiwanese, those who hasn’t fled overseas or gone to mainland for opportunities, lease the island from China say.. 99 years? it won’t affect people’s day to day lives and give plenty of time to seek alternatives. China itself might even sponsor a bill at UN recognizing taiwanese as not Chinese and a sovereign people, on leased land (celebrating Chinese new year is out, if nothing else.. too hypocritical). I do indeed respect people making their own choices, even terrorists.. but i did not i admire much less agree with them.Hopefully everything turns out well because it is sure a very volatile situation with lots of emotions.. ideal for exploitation by others.
Lee Why China doesn’t control all international organizations. If the world had no problem with Taiwan independence or sovereignty than they would be allowed to represent themselves. This independence movement is brand new and polling shows that it is only supported by a minority of the population anyways. The Taiwanese government had every intension of one day invading mainland China until the 1990s.
Also, China and Taiwan are ridiculously intertwined at present as Taiwan has claims that it cannot possibly enforce on its own. I.e. islands throughout the Taiwan Strait and just off the Chinese mainland (which China would immediately take back upon Taiwan independence), your own 11-dash line, islands in the Spratly Islands, and the Japanese harass your ships when they try to go near the Diaoyu Islands just off your coast (what does it suggest when the Japanese can arbitrarily and unilaterally just claim islands of Taiwan’s coast and they can do nothing about it? When China has to defend Chinese territory because Taiwan can’t?). Even if Taiwan got its independence its claimed territory would shrink to only its main island as everyone else would take the rest of its territory as it is militarily one of the weakest players in the region. And don’t even get me started on how dependent Taiwan’s economy is on China.
Yes Taiwan has its own government and military. The U.S. does sell them antiquated weapons which are no threat to the Chinese military (the latest acquisition being rocket launchers from the 1960s). Again, the U.S. military selling its old and useless weapons for billions of dollars to a buyer doesn’t signal sovereignty, just gullibility. The U.S. has all but admitted that they only want to use Taiwan as an economic bargaining chip with China and the U.S.’s only military interest in Taiwan is to see them old weapons and to possibly build more military bases on Taiwan to contain China.
Matthew James Fullen the last poll I saw a few years ago of the Taiwan population showed that the vast majority wished to not have independence from China and to maintain the status quo. So to claim that the whole population of Taiwan wishes to be independent or views themselves as independent from Taiwan is simply nonsense.
David Mak u r a idiot. Chinese are not entitle 2 vote
There is no big Chinese Communist naval base in Taiwan but there is a big Russian base in Crimea, so there is already a Russian military presence in Crimea making it easier to it over..
Crimea has no armed forces to fight off Russiam takeover even if it doesn’t want the takeover but Taiwan has a big armed forces that will fight any Chinese attempted forceful takeove. Tiawan will definitely not fold over without a fight..
Crimea has no defense treaty with US but Taiwan does, and China will never be sure whether the US war go to war against it or not if it tries to take take Taiwan by force. I believe it is this links with the US that thus far has prevented a Chinese military takeover of Taiwan..
The people of Crimea wants to be a part of Russia but the majority Taiwanese do not want to be a part of China, they elected an anti-China president precisely because they hated the previous president too close and subservient to China.
Taiwan and China are separated by a wider sea but Crimea and Russia is separted by just a very narrow Kerch Straits over which Russia actually is alreaady building a bridge.whichi s almost complete to connect Russia with Crimea. Easie logistics for Russia in Crime, certainly not so for Chian in Taiwan..
Russia has 8000 nukes (US has 7000) and so the US has to tolerate Russia in Crimea, no point to risk a nuke war with Russia over Crimea, Russia the only country that can destroy the US over and over and over but China has only 250 nukes which will not deter US to go to war against China if push comes to shove.
Now, these are differences between Taiwan and Crimea.
And if Taiwanese vote to be independent, will China respect the vote?
Jason Jean What countries recognize is the "One China" policy, not the "One China" principle. One states that the PRC is the rightful government of "China" as opposed to the ROC, the other one states that the PRC is the rightful government of China of which Taiwan is an indivisible part. If countries of the world do not recognize Taiwan as being an independent country, they certainly do not recognize it as being a part of China either – and at any rate, how do you claim that Taiwan is a province of China when Beijing itself has no jurisdiction over Taiwan? Who do the Taiwanese people pay tax to – Beijing or Taipei? Which flag flies over Taipei, the PRC or the ROC? Can the president of China enter Taiwan – yes or no? If Taiwan was a province of China, then why does the Chinese president talk about "reunification"? How do you even argue that countries take a stance on Taiwan when China doesn’t even effectively control Taiwan? Taiwan is barred from international organisations not because the countries of the world object, but because China objects. We all know that. Don’t pretend that this is some deliberate choice carried out by the world’s nations to ostracize Taiwan, if China was removed from the equation how do you think nations would subsequently view Taiwan? Still as a province of China? Additionally, you have completely missed the point about the US selling weapons to Taiwan, whether the Americans sell weapons to other groups that are not sovereign entities is completely irrelevant and not the point of discussion here. We are talking about Taiwan and Taiwan’s circumstances – if the Americans recognised Taiwan as simply a "province of China" would they still be selling advanced military weapons firstly, to an entity under the jurisdiction of the PRC keeping in mind that the Americans have a weapons embargo on China, and secondly, conducting such sales outside the jurisdiction of a nation’s central government? Which country do you know allows that?
Taiwan’s constitution is the ROC constitution back when the KMT controlled what is China today. FYI the Taiwanese government doesn’t lay claim to China anymore, the KMT supports eventual unification but for practical reasons gave up claims to mainland China back in the 90s and it is no longer an official part of their platform, likewise with their claim to Mongolia. And once again, the answer to all your questions about why Taiwan adheres to the ROC constitution and have not declared dejure independence is because of China – which have threatened invasion should dejure independence be declared, or if the ROC constitution be amended in any way that officially changes the ROC name and title. They might not recognize the existence of the ROC, yet they still want that "China" connection in the name. Most importantly, we Taiwanese consider ourselves an independent sovereign nation outside the control of China – we have to pragmatic to survive so changing our name and title is not as simple as you’re putting it.
Sounds about right. Let’s hope it never happens.
Jason Jean, it’s not splitting hairs for the 23 million Taiwanese who consider themselves in no way, shape, or form to be a part of China; it’s a threat to their way of life.
A disgrace
Would China ready to ginto war against America et al
Taiwan is not weak as crimea and is separated by hundreds of miles of sea not so easy to land hundreds of thousands of troops across
LORD PLEASE SAVE US SAVE THE WORLD
David Mak only Taiwanese should vote. They are the inhabitants of Taiwan.
David Mak ..a president with GUTS
If beijing did invade or still invading the whole the whole china sea, including the spratlys group of islands, why cant they do the same thing to taiwan, afterall china is insisting that taiwan is one of their provinces.
Yi-Hsin Huang u nailed it sir
taiwan is china state. anybody try interfere the answer is dead.