Maritime experts from the US, Japan and Germany voiced worries at a panel hosted by the Atlantic Council in Washington last week that China is escalating its military pressure against Taiwan.
Sarah Kirchberger, a panelist from the Institute for Security Policy at Germany’s Kiel University, reportedly noted in response to a question that a senior Chinese naval officer had written, “We should do what Putin did in Crimea to Taiwan.”
The security concerns at the Friday conference follow a stern warning from Chinese President Xi Jinping last month that Taiwan will face the “punishment of history” if it makes any move toward separatism. A retired People’s Liberation Army general also said recently that Taiwan could be taken in three days if Beijing moved militarily against what it considers a renegade province.
Kirchberger and two other panelists – Tetsuo Kotani, a senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, and John Watts, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security – all agreed that China looks at Taiwan as Russia regarded Crimea, a key territory and a jumping-off point from which to assert its power in the Asia-Pacific region.
The panelists said that if China were to take over Taiwan, it would have direct access to the Western Pacific and would also be able to extend its influence in the East and South China Seas.
They further noted that China was stepping up its submarine presence in the East China Sea and use of aerial drones for intelligence collection purposes. Beijing is also said to be engaging in almost daily probes of Japan’s air defense networks.
Simulated cruise missile attacks on Japan
The flights reportedly include simulated cruise missile attacks on the Japanese mainland. The probing missions by Chinese planes are also said to be increasing the strain on Japanese fighters. This is raising a possibility that US Air Force planes from Okinawa will be called in to help with the intercepts.
Kirchberger didn’t identify the Chinese naval official who advocated a Crimea-like action against Taiwan. But Zhang Wenmu, a noted Chinese naval strategist, praised Russian President Vladimir Putin’s action against Ukraine in an essay published in late 2014. Zhang also asserted that China should follow Putin’s lead in adopting a similar muscular policy stance against the US.
President Donald Trump’s new national security adviser, John Bolton, is a strong opponent of the United States’ “One China” policy. A “very high-ranking” US State Department official is expected to visit Taiwan in June to officiate at the opening of the new compound of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), Washington’s de facto embassy in Taipei’s Neihu district, according to Liberty Times and the Taipei Times, which cited a Taiwanese government official.
If the Taiwanese hold a referendum and vote to reunite with their motherland China, it is not US business in any way. Ditto for Crimea!
And if Taiwanese vote for independence then it is not Chinese business in any way!
Nukes
Its time for Taiwan to find a way to accommodate China’s interests. US knows it can’t do anything if China is to take any action to reclaim Taiwan. Would US be ready to go to war with against China over Taiwan? Nope.
Yi-Hsin Huang It is the 1.4 billion Chinese vote that Taiwan is part of China.
Is Trump the biggest DUMB nuke or naked emperor to USA’s citizens?
David Mak 1.4 billion Chinese can’t even vote for their own leaders, what makes you think they have any right to determine what goes on in an independent and sovereign neighbour like Taiwan? Go vote for who runs your Chinatowns first before meddling in the business of other countries!
China has no legitimate claims to Taiwan, think they will be able to convince the world that their illegal invasion of Taiwan is legitimate? No countries with an interest in the Asia-Pacific would allow this, least of all the US and Japan. Keep dreaming that pipe-dream Chinese peasants!
How about the US sells nukes to Taiwan?
So now the Chinese wumao no longer interested in taking on Caucasian names theae days? 😉
Stephen Wieprecht
That’s a possibility we shouldn’t rule that out should Beijing keeps pushing the USA hard enough.
Lee Why: Really? You don’t know your history, do you? For a long time, Taiwan claimed to be the legitimate government of China, hence the moniker Republic of China. The Taiwanese only dropped the name when it became evident that there was no way back. Now they are changing tact and denying they ever were part of China. Some even say they are not Chinese, behaving as if the Minnan and Hakka tongues originated in Taiwan. If Taiwanese really insist they are not Chinese or part of China, then renounce your surname and your ancestors. Return the Chinese imperial treasures in your museum to China. Also, drop the use of Chinese writing.
Yi-Hsin Huang
Hold an honest referendum then and permit real press freedom instead of propaganda campaigns by CIA sponsored media
Yi-Hsin Huang i personally have no problem, only respect, for people willing to die for their beliefs… but don’t expect others to fight for your cause. Taiwan will simply be used as bargaining leverage.. and if it ends up with millions of dead Asians, most likely mostly Taiwanese, Washington will take the bonus.
Am I the only person noticing that all these countries and, in fact, every major nation on Earth recognizes Taiwan as belonging to China? How can it be like Crimea when the entire world recognies Taiwan as a part of China? According to the international community this is purely a domestic dispute. A better parallel would be Kuwait attempting to break away from Iraq. But in this case, every major power recognizes Taiwan belongs to China.
That’s part of China’s propaganda at play, which you’ve sadly fallen for. MOST major countries take no position in regards to Taiwan – what they recognise is that the People’s Republic of China is the rightful government of "China", and not the Republic of China aka Taiwan. If Taiwan "belongs" to China, do you really think the US would be selling major military weapons to Taiwan each year? Your own country Canada does not accept China’s interpretation of the "One China" principle either, and instead simply states that they "take note of" China’s position in regards to Taiwan. Hence why every time a new Canadian prime minister enters parliament, the Chinese ambassador is sent to try and get the Canadians to change the wording (which they’ve consistently declined to do so since the 70s.)
That’s splitting some fine hairs. All the governments of the world recognize China as being an indivisible whole which the PRC governs, which makes the PRC the recognized government of all China, which includes Taiwan (this is, in fact, the "One-China" principle which all countries who have diplomatic relations with China need to recognize; technically even Taiwan still recognizes this as they haven’t officially recanted on this). Yet you claim these countries don’t take a stance on Taiwan sovereignty? Taiwan isn’t allowed to participate in major international organizations unless it is as "China’s Taipei." I simply cannot wrap my head around how countries can be ‘not taking a stance’ on the issue when they refuse to treat Taiwan as a country. As for my country, we don’t take definitive stances on anything, so that’s normal. We just say vague things in an attempt to keep everyone happy. Additionally, the U.S. selling arms to groups is no indication of sovereignty. They sell arms to innumerable groups which are not countries.
Lastly, the Taiwan constitution itself claims all of China. The pitch for being somehow independent of China would be much more credible if the Taiwanese government would at least stop claiming to be the legitimate government of all China. How can foreign governments recognize an independent Taiwan when the Taiwan government doesn’t recognize itself as separate from China? Even the 20 remaining countries which are bribed to recognize the Taiwan government don’t recognize it as being independent of China. In their view, it is simply the legitimate government of an indivisible China.
George Silversurfer If millions ended dead because China decided to invade a sovereign nation then the blood is on the Chinese’s hand.
You’re respect for people that are willing to die for their belief is deeply misguided because if that were the case then you must really admire the ISIS and other terrorist organizations.
Lee Why, thank you for the intelligent well thought out comment!!
Joel Rosenberg’s "The Last Jihad" is coming true. While at first I thought the Philippines would assume Israel’s part it seems there is a variation and Taiwan has assumed that part. The strategy is clear. China takes Taiwan and the Philippines is an easy target. No sweat, No thrill, and China would have a formidable first line of defense where it can also stage its initial offensive moves to take over the Micronesian Islands. That is if the US would allow it.
taiwan is china state. anybody try interfere the answer is dead.
Yi-Hsin Huang u nailed it sir
If beijing did invade or still invading the whole the whole china sea, including the spratlys group of islands, why cant they do the same thing to taiwan, afterall china is insisting that taiwan is one of their provinces.
David Mak ..a president with GUTS
David Mak only Taiwanese should vote. They are the inhabitants of Taiwan.
LORD PLEASE SAVE US SAVE THE WORLD
Taiwan is not weak as crimea and is separated by hundreds of miles of sea not so easy to land hundreds of thousands of troops across
Would China ready to ginto war against America et al
A disgrace
Jason Jean, it’s not splitting hairs for the 23 million Taiwanese who consider themselves in no way, shape, or form to be a part of China; it’s a threat to their way of life.
Sounds about right. Let’s hope it never happens.
Jason Jean What countries recognize is the "One China" policy, not the "One China" principle. One states that the PRC is the rightful government of "China" as opposed to the ROC, the other one states that the PRC is the rightful government of China of which Taiwan is an indivisible part. If countries of the world do not recognize Taiwan as being an independent country, they certainly do not recognize it as being a part of China either – and at any rate, how do you claim that Taiwan is a province of China when Beijing itself has no jurisdiction over Taiwan? Who do the Taiwanese people pay tax to – Beijing or Taipei? Which flag flies over Taipei, the PRC or the ROC? Can the president of China enter Taiwan – yes or no? If Taiwan was a province of China, then why does the Chinese president talk about "reunification"? How do you even argue that countries take a stance on Taiwan when China doesn’t even effectively control Taiwan? Taiwan is barred from international organisations not because the countries of the world object, but because China objects. We all know that. Don’t pretend that this is some deliberate choice carried out by the world’s nations to ostracize Taiwan, if China was removed from the equation how do you think nations would subsequently view Taiwan? Still as a province of China? Additionally, you have completely missed the point about the US selling weapons to Taiwan, whether the Americans sell weapons to other groups that are not sovereign entities is completely irrelevant and not the point of discussion here. We are talking about Taiwan and Taiwan’s circumstances – if the Americans recognised Taiwan as simply a "province of China" would they still be selling advanced military weapons firstly, to an entity under the jurisdiction of the PRC keeping in mind that the Americans have a weapons embargo on China, and secondly, conducting such sales outside the jurisdiction of a nation’s central government? Which country do you know allows that?
Taiwan’s constitution is the ROC constitution back when the KMT controlled what is China today. FYI the Taiwanese government doesn’t lay claim to China anymore, the KMT supports eventual unification but for practical reasons gave up claims to mainland China back in the 90s and it is no longer an official part of their platform, likewise with their claim to Mongolia. And once again, the answer to all your questions about why Taiwan adheres to the ROC constitution and have not declared dejure independence is because of China – which have threatened invasion should dejure independence be declared, or if the ROC constitution be amended in any way that officially changes the ROC name and title. They might not recognize the existence of the ROC, yet they still want that "China" connection in the name. Most importantly, we Taiwanese consider ourselves an independent sovereign nation outside the control of China – we have to pragmatic to survive so changing our name and title is not as simple as you’re putting it.
And if Taiwanese vote to be independent, will China respect the vote?
There is no big Chinese Communist naval base in Taiwan but there is a big Russian base in Crimea, so there is already a Russian military presence in Crimea making it easier to it over..
Crimea has no armed forces to fight off Russiam takeover even if it doesn’t want the takeover but Taiwan has a big armed forces that will fight any Chinese attempted forceful takeove. Tiawan will definitely not fold over without a fight..
Crimea has no defense treaty with US but Taiwan does, and China will never be sure whether the US war go to war against it or not if it tries to take take Taiwan by force. I believe it is this links with the US that thus far has prevented a Chinese military takeover of Taiwan..
The people of Crimea wants to be a part of Russia but the majority Taiwanese do not want to be a part of China, they elected an anti-China president precisely because they hated the previous president too close and subservient to China.
Taiwan and China are separated by a wider sea but Crimea and Russia is separted by just a very narrow Kerch Straits over which Russia actually is alreaady building a bridge.whichi s almost complete to connect Russia with Crimea. Easie logistics for Russia in Crime, certainly not so for Chian in Taiwan..
Russia has 8000 nukes (US has 7000) and so the US has to tolerate Russia in Crimea, no point to risk a nuke war with Russia over Crimea, Russia the only country that can destroy the US over and over and over but China has only 250 nukes which will not deter US to go to war against China if push comes to shove.
Now, these are differences between Taiwan and Crimea.
David Mak u r a idiot. Chinese are not entitle 2 vote
Matthew James Fullen the last poll I saw a few years ago of the Taiwan population showed that the vast majority wished to not have independence from China and to maintain the status quo. So to claim that the whole population of Taiwan wishes to be independent or views themselves as independent from Taiwan is simply nonsense.
Lee Why China doesn’t control all international organizations. If the world had no problem with Taiwan independence or sovereignty than they would be allowed to represent themselves. This independence movement is brand new and polling shows that it is only supported by a minority of the population anyways. The Taiwanese government had every intension of one day invading mainland China until the 1990s.
Also, China and Taiwan are ridiculously intertwined at present as Taiwan has claims that it cannot possibly enforce on its own. I.e. islands throughout the Taiwan Strait and just off the Chinese mainland (which China would immediately take back upon Taiwan independence), your own 11-dash line, islands in the Spratly Islands, and the Japanese harass your ships when they try to go near the Diaoyu Islands just off your coast (what does it suggest when the Japanese can arbitrarily and unilaterally just claim islands of Taiwan’s coast and they can do nothing about it? When China has to defend Chinese territory because Taiwan can’t?). Even if Taiwan got its independence its claimed territory would shrink to only its main island as everyone else would take the rest of its territory as it is militarily one of the weakest players in the region. And don’t even get me started on how dependent Taiwan’s economy is on China.
Yes Taiwan has its own government and military. The U.S. does sell them antiquated weapons which are no threat to the Chinese military (the latest acquisition being rocket launchers from the 1960s). Again, the U.S. military selling its old and useless weapons for billions of dollars to a buyer doesn’t signal sovereignty, just gullibility. The U.S. has all but admitted that they only want to use Taiwan as an economic bargaining chip with China and the U.S.’s only military interest in Taiwan is to see them old weapons and to possibly build more military bases on Taiwan to contain China.
Yi-Hsin Huang unfortunately for the Taiwanese, the UN overwhelmingly recognize island of taiwan as part of China, never mind the 1.3b of Chinese. Maybe the Taiwanese, those who hasn’t fled overseas or gone to mainland for opportunities, lease the island from China say.. 99 years? it won’t affect people’s day to day lives and give plenty of time to seek alternatives. China itself might even sponsor a bill at UN recognizing taiwanese as not Chinese and a sovereign people, on leased land (celebrating Chinese new year is out, if nothing else.. too hypocritical). I do indeed respect people making their own choices, even terrorists.. but i did not i admire much less agree with them.Hopefully everything turns out well because it is sure a very volatile situation with lots of emotions.. ideal for exploitation by others.
in this real world,which side do you think need to put more effort to accomodate and understand the position of the other side….side with 30 million people or the side of 1.4 billion people.
It’s not like Crimea-if they do it they will face soon or later inside opposition,which means trouble,probably means a factor of instability for China itself,North and South.That’s not where all empires fail?See Soviet Union,Yugoslavia,Ireland,,Basks and now Catalonian. History moves steadily but more slower than we antecipa-te,the bigger the empires the more instable!
They can go to war with any country
Lee Why you are so brave just like the many Taiwanese who have moved overseas like Vancouver, in their war room basements.. urging those who remained in Taiwan to resist and fight to the last man..now that they themselves, their families and wealth are safe elsewhere. Walk the talk and go back to taiwan and enlist in the army.
Excess of everything is bad even it is agression.you can understand chinese agression as when a lion roars before a goat.china have border disputes with almost every neighbouring country.then why taiwan first,end disputes with russia first.russia also captured the chinese empire in 16th century which is east and central russia inpresent time.why doesn’t china acclaim?you can figure out china with just numbers.75 submarines,20 million army blah blah but having no experience of war..no technical edge and no guts.they are just copy cats and barking dogs.everyone knows barking dog sheldom bites.they will never go in war with US.
Gentlemen ! It is not about only Taiwan. As the report said: "if China were to take over Taiwan, it would have direct access to the Western Pacific and would also be able to extend its influence in the East and South China Seas". That means US and Japan enter the war, if Taiwan is invaded. It will probably be, the WW III, and the end of the mankind.
Give to God what belongs to God, give to Caesar what belongs to Caesar! Return to China what belongs to China. Possession of stolen property does not automatically bestow ownership! Or I am wrong?
Warmongering West is justifying war against China.
The choices is came from the people
of taiwan not the chinese!!
David Mak if Taiwan herself denied that taiwan is seperate and freedom land, how can china demand that they are china’s part? How much china paid to buy taiwan? Who sold taiwan to china?
Definitely, if US will just watch China invade Taiwan, I agree with PLA retired General, in 3 days it’s over. And US will just have to leave Asia Pacific region, let China own and control the West and East China sea and the area within the 9 dass line.
Lee Why. China is a big bully
Before the world ends time for usa will happen and I know the world will die happy.#usa is not strong as u think but the game is just still on its side
Lee Why …..1.4 B china pop, out of it are the 80M minority commies,CCP, so very powerful that they control the military and most businesses ,as a result ,they are all millionaires if not Billionaires. They do not want to yield power to the 1.32 B majority. Election in Mainland china were performed only by d 80M minority ccp to decide what and who is the next leader.
here in the philippines, we need to hope for a U S intervention in order to keep china at bay…elsewise….better learn to speak chinese…watch red dawn…possible scenario..it would be over in minutes….marshal la, chinese soldiers on every corner and no more fredom…sad
Matthew James Fullen if a population of people want independence but are too afraid of their colonizers or their fellow countrymen to fight for it, then they don’t really want it. The latest polling showed that about 65% of the Taiwanese population knows that their military wouldn’t stand a chance against the PLA, and that is an informed opinion as Taiwan has mandatory military service. Additionally, Taiwan is presently suffering from "brain-drain" as hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese citizens move to the Chinese mainland for more opportunities and a better life. There is already a population of over a million Taiwanese living in mainland China. So, to sum up, they know their military sucks, and for that reason they don’t want to declare independence, and they are moving to the Chinese mainland in droves. You don’t need to have lived in Taiwan to get your facts straight. Maybe you should do some research instead of avoiding my arguments.