Maritime experts from the US, Japan and Germany voiced worries at a panel hosted by the Atlantic Council in Washington last week that China is escalating its military pressure against Taiwan.
Sarah Kirchberger, a panelist from the Institute for Security Policy at Germany’s Kiel University, reportedly noted in response to a question that a senior Chinese naval officer had written, “We should do what Putin did in Crimea to Taiwan.”
The security concerns at the Friday conference follow a stern warning from Chinese President Xi Jinping last month that Taiwan will face the “punishment of history” if it makes any move toward separatism. A retired People’s Liberation Army general also said recently that Taiwan could be taken in three days if Beijing moved militarily against what it considers a renegade province.
Kirchberger and two other panelists – Tetsuo Kotani, a senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, and John Watts, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security – all agreed that China looks at Taiwan as Russia regarded Crimea, a key territory and a jumping-off point from which to assert its power in the Asia-Pacific region.
The panelists said that if China were to take over Taiwan, it would have direct access to the Western Pacific and would also be able to extend its influence in the East and South China Seas.
They further noted that China was stepping up its submarine presence in the East China Sea and use of aerial drones for intelligence collection purposes. Beijing is also said to be engaging in almost daily probes of Japan’s air defense networks.
Simulated cruise missile attacks on Japan
The flights reportedly include simulated cruise missile attacks on the Japanese mainland. The probing missions by Chinese planes are also said to be increasing the strain on Japanese fighters. This is raising a possibility that US Air Force planes from Okinawa will be called in to help with the intercepts.
Kirchberger didn’t identify the Chinese naval official who advocated a Crimea-like action against Taiwan. But Zhang Wenmu, a noted Chinese naval strategist, praised Russian President Vladimir Putin’s action against Ukraine in an essay published in late 2014. Zhang also asserted that China should follow Putin’s lead in adopting a similar muscular policy stance against the US.
President Donald Trump’s new national security adviser, John Bolton, is a strong opponent of the United States’ “One China” policy. A “very high-ranking” US State Department official is expected to visit Taiwan in June to officiate at the opening of the new compound of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), Washington’s de facto embassy in Taipei’s Neihu district, according to Liberty Times and the Taipei Times, which cited a Taiwanese government official.
Joel Rosenberg’s "The Last Jihad" is coming true. While at first I thought the Philippines would assume Israel’s part it seems there is a variation and Taiwan has assumed that part. The strategy is clear. China takes Taiwan and the Philippines is an easy target. No sweat, No thrill, and China would have a formidable first line of defense where it can also stage its initial offensive moves to take over the Micronesian Islands. That is if the US would allow it.
Lee Why, thank you for the intelligent well thought out comment!!
George Silversurfer If millions ended dead because China decided to invade a sovereign nation then the blood is on the Chinese’s hand.
You’re respect for people that are willing to die for their belief is deeply misguided because if that were the case then you must really admire the ISIS and other terrorist organizations.
That’s splitting some fine hairs. All the governments of the world recognize China as being an indivisible whole which the PRC governs, which makes the PRC the recognized government of all China, which includes Taiwan (this is, in fact, the "One-China" principle which all countries who have diplomatic relations with China need to recognize; technically even Taiwan still recognizes this as they haven’t officially recanted on this). Yet you claim these countries don’t take a stance on Taiwan sovereignty? Taiwan isn’t allowed to participate in major international organizations unless it is as "China’s Taipei." I simply cannot wrap my head around how countries can be ‘not taking a stance’ on the issue when they refuse to treat Taiwan as a country. As for my country, we don’t take definitive stances on anything, so that’s normal. We just say vague things in an attempt to keep everyone happy. Additionally, the U.S. selling arms to groups is no indication of sovereignty. They sell arms to innumerable groups which are not countries.
Lastly, the Taiwan constitution itself claims all of China. The pitch for being somehow independent of China would be much more credible if the Taiwanese government would at least stop claiming to be the legitimate government of all China. How can foreign governments recognize an independent Taiwan when the Taiwan government doesn’t recognize itself as separate from China? Even the 20 remaining countries which are bribed to recognize the Taiwan government don’t recognize it as being independent of China. In their view, it is simply the legitimate government of an indivisible China.
That’s part of China’s propaganda at play, which you’ve sadly fallen for. MOST major countries take no position in regards to Taiwan – what they recognise is that the People’s Republic of China is the rightful government of "China", and not the Republic of China aka Taiwan. If Taiwan "belongs" to China, do you really think the US would be selling major military weapons to Taiwan each year? Your own country Canada does not accept China’s interpretation of the "One China" principle either, and instead simply states that they "take note of" China’s position in regards to Taiwan. Hence why every time a new Canadian prime minister enters parliament, the Chinese ambassador is sent to try and get the Canadians to change the wording (which they’ve consistently declined to do so since the 70s.)
Am I the only person noticing that all these countries and, in fact, every major nation on Earth recognizes Taiwan as belonging to China? How can it be like Crimea when the entire world recognies Taiwan as a part of China? According to the international community this is purely a domestic dispute. A better parallel would be Kuwait attempting to break away from Iraq. But in this case, every major power recognizes Taiwan belongs to China.
Yi-Hsin Huang i personally have no problem, only respect, for people willing to die for their beliefs… but don’t expect others to fight for your cause. Taiwan will simply be used as bargaining leverage.. and if it ends up with millions of dead Asians, most likely mostly Taiwanese, Washington will take the bonus.
Yi-Hsin Huang
Hold an honest referendum then and permit real press freedom instead of propaganda campaigns by CIA sponsored media
Lee Why: Really? You don’t know your history, do you? For a long time, Taiwan claimed to be the legitimate government of China, hence the moniker Republic of China. The Taiwanese only dropped the name when it became evident that there was no way back. Now they are changing tact and denying they ever were part of China. Some even say they are not Chinese, behaving as if the Minnan and Hakka tongues originated in Taiwan. If Taiwanese really insist they are not Chinese or part of China, then renounce your surname and your ancestors. Return the Chinese imperial treasures in your museum to China. Also, drop the use of Chinese writing.
Stephen Wieprecht
That’s a possibility we shouldn’t rule that out should Beijing keeps pushing the USA hard enough.
So now the Chinese wumao no longer interested in taking on Caucasian names theae days? 😉
How about the US sells nukes to Taiwan?
China has no legitimate claims to Taiwan, think they will be able to convince the world that their illegal invasion of Taiwan is legitimate? No countries with an interest in the Asia-Pacific would allow this, least of all the US and Japan. Keep dreaming that pipe-dream Chinese peasants!
David Mak 1.4 billion Chinese can’t even vote for their own leaders, what makes you think they have any right to determine what goes on in an independent and sovereign neighbour like Taiwan? Go vote for who runs your Chinatowns first before meddling in the business of other countries!
Is Trump the biggest DUMB nuke or naked emperor to USA’s citizens?
Yi-Hsin Huang It is the 1.4 billion Chinese vote that Taiwan is part of China.
Its time for Taiwan to find a way to accommodate China’s interests. US knows it can’t do anything if China is to take any action to reclaim Taiwan. Would US be ready to go to war with against China over Taiwan? Nope.
Nukes
And if Taiwanese vote for independence then it is not Chinese business in any way!
If the Taiwanese hold a referendum and vote to reunite with their motherland China, it is not US business in any way. Ditto for Crimea!