The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman dropped a bombshell in the course of a weekend interview with Time magazine that Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad is not going to be ousted from power. He said, “Bashar is staying. But I believe Bashar’s interest is not to let the Iranians do whatever they want to do.”
This remark by the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia is a stunning reversal of Riyadh’s policies in Syria hinged on “regime change” in Damascus. One can call it an admission of defeat. But then, there is always the tantalizing possibility of sub-plots in politics and this could be one such situation of sub-plots gaining ascendance.
MBS, 32, remains an enigma wrapped in mystery. Some say he’s a great reformer while others call him an impetuous practitioner of coercive politics. Indeed, the two personality traits needn’t be contradictory necessarily, as history shows.
What cannot be overlooked is that MBS belongs to a new generation, which is acutely conscious of the Kingdom acquiring the skills of “soft power”. Soft power traditionally meant money power in the Saudi political lexicon. But things are changing.
Bid to win friends and influence
No Saudi ruler ever before launched such a media blitzkrieg as a curtain raiser to visits to the UK and the US. The Saudi public diplomacy used to be brash, but today there is an earnest attempt to win friends and influence people. And these are early days for MBS’s rule.
Put differently, Saudi diplomacy is transitioning. Thus, while on a visit to the US, MBS announces on the one hand that Saudi Arabia and Russia (read MBS and Vladimir Putin) – have agreed on a long-term energy alliance, while on the other hand, effectively signaling that he is ready to do business with Bashar.
Evidently, MBS is thinking through the Saudi predicament. Stable, high oil prices are achievable only with Russia’s cooperation and such a convergence simply doesn’t exist with the US – although the petrodollar is the life-blood of the American economy and US-led international financial system.
MBS has just announced that the curtain is coming down on the 70-year-old “oil-for-security” pact between Saudi Arabia and the US agreed upon by Franklin Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz, founder of the Saudi Kingdom, in 1946 on the banks of the Nile.
Curiously, in a journey that took a quarter of a century, China chose just this past week to open its own oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in contracts that will be denominated in yuan rather than US dollars, and where a futures contract is based on a basket of medium and heavy crudes that closely resembles grades that China imports in significant volumes from Saudi Arabia and Russia. The cacophony over the Skripal spy case should not detract the profound strategic implications of the Saudi-Russian oil alliance that MBS announced.
Saudis at odds with Trump on Syria
Again, MBS chose to speak of the dramatic shift in the Saudi policy toward Syria while he is still on American soil. Importantly, he spoke soon after meeting President Donald Trump in the White House on March 20 and discussing Syria with Defence Secretary James Mattis.
Even more importantly, MBS’s interview with Time followed just hours after Trump told a cheering crowd in Richfield, Ohio on Thursday, “We’re coming out of Syria very soon. Let the other people take care of it now, very soon. Very soon, we’re coming out.”
MBS, nonetheless, disagrees: “We believe American troops should stay for at least the mid-term, if not the long-term.” He told Time that the American troop presence inside Syria was the last effort stopping Iran from continuing to expand influence with regional allies, besides allowing Washington to have a say in Syria’s future.
But how far his sage advice will influence Trump is in serious doubt. In fact, after Trump spoke, news trickled in that two US military personnel were killed and five others wounded in the northeastern Syrian town of Manjib in a bomb attack on Thursday. On Friday, the White House provided an official transcript of Trump’s getting out “very-soon” remarks in Ohio.
On Saturday, reports appeared that Trump has separately ordered this week a hold on more than $200 million in recovery funds for Syria earmarked for basic infrastructure projects, such as restoring power and water and rebuilding roads, demanding more information on how the money would be used and also seeking that other countries step up to the plate and pay more.
CBS News reported that the decision was relayed to the State Department on Friday in a call that White House chief of staff John Kelly made to Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan. To be sure, MBS is astute enough to know that recent changes in the State Department and White House National Security Council significantly enables Trump to force his will on the Administration’s Syria policies.
MBS is reportedly set to visit Baghdad and Najaf very soon. A Saudi consulate may open in Najaf, the holy center of (Iraqi) Shi’ism. Following Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s two visits to Saudi Arabia last year, the rapprochement between the two countries rapidly gained traction, especially in the economic field.
Similarly, MBS prefers to put Saudi money where the mouth is – in Damascus – rather than fund the Pentagon commanders’ fanciful infrastructure projects in power and water or rebuilding roads on a remote patch of land in the middle of nowhere along the western banks of the Euphrates.
MBS sees that the “regime change” agenda in Syria has exhausted itself. Make no mistake, he hinted at doing business with Bashar. After all, Bashar is no stranger to the Saudi royals.
With Assad not going away anytime soon, SA has nothing to lose to at least try exploiting current Syrian/Iran supposedly clash of interests. A really bold move for MBS would be to start accepting yuan for oil export to China.. but that would be the red line that triggers a coup to replace him.
Unless you intend to be consistent, stop saying MBS. Use his name. Or you could start writing FFD, VBH, BBK and so forth. Or explain your exception. MBS is no FDR, MLK, of JFK. He is 32 year old Mohammad bin Salman, a young male without any true distinction. CBS, NBC, and ABC are all OKK.
how about just BS
The US and the west should stop their regime change experiment in Syria. It will only bring further suffering to the Syrians. Engage Assad’s government to initiate reforms peacefully and ensure the peace and stability of the region.
George Silversurfer That’s the spirit! Politically, and to my own heart. But for the basic orthography? How will we know the (Crown) Prince from the (rest of us) Pauper? Unfortunately or fortunately there are, indeed, other ways. LM.
How has ‘overthrow’ so easily become ‘regime change’? Would ‘governemt change’ even work at all? Oh, I see, it’s good to change a regime but not a government. That would be an overthrow. Is it "you are what you eat" or "you are how you speak."? Somebody(s) trying to load the vocabulary dice. It’s
working.
Yes, the head choppers were planning to bring reforms and democracy to Syria. How dare Bashar a British educated Opthamalogist and a sophisticated wife dares to stand up to uneducated, Wahabist head chopper?…or may I even dare to say Orange head moron with one finger on Nukes ready to destroy the world? Thank God to Iran and Russia for standind up and being the voice of reason!! We truly live in an insane world.
Yes, there is violence in USA but there is also democracy!!…lets not forget that. Women do get raped, people do get shot however Women can also run for president, they can protest, they can drive a car and have all types of rights….Saudi Arabia has none of that. You are delusional if you think an inexperience, head chopper from 6th century who runs a more repressive regime than N. Korea can bring reform? Have you ever lived in Saudi Arabia? You really have no clue!!!…Let me put it this way to you….You as a man, would get raped, lashed or beheaded jail if you dare to make a move on any woman in Saudi Arabia!!…you talk about Saudi Arabia, as if it was Norway!!!
The caption of the picture should say "Master of BS (orange clown) along with mini me (More Bull Sheikh)….or as we say in the West, "Dumb & Dumber". Two Rich, spoiled uneducated, unelected (one lost the majority and the young sheikh never had the majority vote) so called leaders.
If KSA has all these young people ready and willing to work, why do they import bhumis and SE Asians to do the menial work and exPats to do the intelligent work ?
"Of course , MBS has bumbled in few foreign policy matters"
I assume you are speaking of the young man in charge of the cholera and mass starvation in Yemen? Yes, he is a real progessive if progress means creating hell on earth. Trump could use another guy like that–the women and war thing could mean significant bonding.
In simple words MBS explained the priority to Trump. Stop Tehran everything and everyone else may be acceptable
The Saouds do not like American mercenaries revolting …
Assad is the Butcher of his people that had even used Chen weapons to further his aim in containing Syrians opposing his rule. To accept his kind of rule is a mockery of justice. He should be charged for inhuman cruelty leading to hundreds of thousands in killing his own people.
Is Saudi Arabia a superpower that decides who be the leaders of other countries? Last time they tried to decide who ruled Lebanon but failed, Lebanese rallied against the Saudi interference in their country. The Saudi are still at war in Yemen to decide who rule Yemen. And now they’re talking as if who gets to rule Syria is decided in Riyadh. Who are these Saudi? What’s next? To decided who should rule in Malaysia, Indonesia, Maldives and Pakistan.
MBS=More Bullshit, better than BS
This is an open and straight forward comment on syria
Yes, you’re right there, just add a brave and daring opthalmologist
For Saudis to have nuclear strategy is as if teaching a child to learn ABC
What reforms?, why dont the US and NATO countries reform their own countries from the iron grip of the jew zionists, that is the reform that is sorely needeed, they are in no position to demand reform from anybody!
My dear friend, hope you are not blind or bias. Seeing Basher getting stronger with Russian support, SA is now worried about the way to save their ass. They are talking soft so that Assad does not influence the anti royals to revolt and start a civil war within SA. Hope it is coming too quickly to them than they expected.
Wow this Crown Prince Salman is trying to tangle things up again . Asad Government killed lots of his own citizens . Saudi’s wants Asad in power so that he can help attack Iran ????????, politics is a dangerous game . US , Russia or China don’t have any say in this mess .
Barry Graham you’re right! West is the cause of war andchaos in the middle east. Because of their GREED for G.O.D- Gold,Oil ,Drugs… They killed Gadaffi because of rich abundant Libyan Gold… They bomb Iraq for Oil.. they invade Afghanistan for Drugs. Heroine Poppies/Opium field.Which is presently guarded by the US Marines troops..
Ahson Af
James Agapios was the queen of England elected?
Weng D Arroyo BS infeed!
Saif Sumon agree and you’re right
If Bashar trusts that turd then he is a fool.
What reforms the west and USA is talking about,I sujjest them to reform their countries and their polices do justice to their own citizens who lack shelter jobs and are frustrated with the double standards and Hypocrisy, It is high time western powers should not bother the other world let them run their affairs and countries like they want in Middle East and Asia, Better west look after their own home rather poking nose in others living, Thank u,