Ever since Tsai Ing-Wen and her pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) assumed the leadership of Taiwan in 2016, Beijing has been on the offensive against any notion of independence. After Tsai refused to affirm the 1992 Consensus and the “one China” framework, Beijing has actively sought to isolate Taipei diplomatically and threatened its shores with its military. In 2017, Chinese military aircraft, including bombers and advanced fighter jets, repeatedly flew an “unprecedented” number of sorties close to Taiwanese air space, according to Taiwanese military officials. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) also sailed its aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, along the center line dividing the strait between China and Taiwan that same year.
Despite Tsai branding the DPP as a party of peace, it has a long history of favoring formal independence, as do other political forces on the island. In February, two former Taiwan presidents, Lee Teng-hui (former Nationalist or Kuomintang president) and Chen Shui-bian, (the first DPP president from 2000 to 2008), formally backed a campaign to hold a referendum on April 6, 2019 over Taiwan’s independence. The campaign was launched by Kuo Bei-hong, chairman of Formosa Television channel, who set the date to mark the 30th anniversary of the self-immolation of Deng Nan-jung, a Taiwan independence and democracy advocate.
For Beijing, the referendum proposal confirms their suspicion that Tsai is pushing for formal independence, though so far her government has not publicly come out in favor of the campaign. Chinese President Xi Jinping has been a vocal opponent of Taiwan’s independence, and seemingly links reunification of Taiwan with China’s Great Rejuvenation by 2050. In an unexpected address at the close of the National People’s Congress held earlier this month, Xi garnished his loudest applause by warning Taiwan that “All acts and tricks to split the motherland are doomed to failure and will be condemned by the people and punished by history.” His re-elected premier, Li Keqiang, had earlier warned Taipei against any “separatist schemes.”
Xi’s immediacy is in sharp contrast to Chairman Mao Zedong, who told Henry Kissinger in 1975 that China did not want Taiwan: “It’s better for it to be in your hands… A hundred years hence we will want it, and we are going to fight for it.” Deng Xiaoping was also notably patient, instructing the next leadership to: “Observe carefully; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.”
For his part, Jiang Zemin believed: “On the Taiwan issue the Shanghai Communique established a good formula.” Yet the new Chinese President-for-Life Xi Jinping appears to have run out of patience and is anxious to project the power he has carefully amassed.
Hong Kong-based political analyst Willy Lam goes further, believing the return of Taiwan is “Xi Jinping’s major ambition. He is obsessed by reunification because it will be his place in history, his claim to immortality.” Xi’s ambition is reaffirmed by Ian Easton of the 2049 Institute, who claims in his new book The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia that Xi told Communist Party leaders in 2012 of plans to invade Taiwan by 2020. Easton posits an invasion could happen before July 2021, marking the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
While the American public may have no appetite for another war or the return of the US armed forces to the island, Mike Pompeo, the new US secretary of state, a China hawk, could push for a forceful stand
Currently, referendums in Taiwan cannot be held based on issues of national sovereignty. Indeed, in 1979, it was a crime to advocate the total independence of Taiwan from China. However, if that were to change, a referendum over independence could possibly push Xi and his PLA toward a face-saving measure. While a full-scale invasion is unlikely, Xi could decide on a show of limited military force, to test the will and resolve of the Trump Administration and the American public under the Taiwan Relations Act.
While the American public may have no appetite for another war or the return of the US armed forces to the island, Mike Pompeo, the new US secretary of state, a China hawk, could push for a forceful stand. So too could John Bolton, the new national security adviser, who once recommended Washington’s recognition of Taiwan’s statehood.
On March 20, Beijing sailed its aircraft carrier into the Taiwan Strait. The sailing coincided with warnings issued to Taipei by Xi at the close of the National People’s Congress, and just days after the signing last week of the Taiwan Travel Act by Trump, recommending reciprocal visits by high-level American and Taiwanese government officials. The incursion drew the attention of Taiwanese defense forces, whose fighter jets and naval vessels shadowed the movements of the group, but so far there has been no reaction from the Trump Administration. For now, a potential referendum is almost a year away, but how the mercurial Trump, his hawkish national security adviser, and his ever-changing administration will react to immediate aggression from the mainland is unclear.
Peter what you don’t understand about Vietnamese scholars is their capacity to beat around the bush and wear their opponents down. I have seen them wear one another down and I think that is what the Vietnamese did during the American War in Vietnam. That to one side the analysis is not bad. The truth of the matter is that Pax Americana is on the decline and I still hark back to the debacle in late April 1975 when the US left with its tail between its legs.
As much as Taiwan deserves independence (as much or more than those granted around the world in the last 50 odd years), China would automatically stick it’s finger into any North-South Korea reproachment. This is the issue which keeps China and the US tied together. Approve Tiawanese independence and any illusion of cooperation on North Korea would be out the window for good. I am pretty sure this view will have been given to the US for many years.
China has drawn the red on Taiwan. Declare independence, and war it is. They drew the red line at the 38th parallel during the Korean conflict, but Americans thought they were bluffing, and, in any case, a pushover. And look what happened. And this was despite the fact that China was impoverished, with a poorly equipped military. Do Americans once again think they are bluffing?
Comrade we lost m’s of soldiers and it was the threat of Russia (going nuke) that stopped the US pushing us back all the way.
But Trump has torn up the rule book. Recognition of Taiwanese independence would be the end of the Party, either by humiliation, war and/or civil unrest.
It was also the Chinese tactic of human wave advances. That might have been okay back then when families were big and could manages losses, but what about with one child famiies? Are they going to be happy with the CCP if their one and only is killed? That would quickly bring civil unrest.
John Tee Be careful John, common sense will get you called a banana, etc by the Wumao.
Though I doubt they will be so brave when they are on the front line.
LOL silly article.
John Tee Using the bogus Tibetan ‘snow’ leopard separatist flag, eh? No surprise though. You hate China, that’s said it all.
Like all Yankee’s they promote WAR …any country that in their eye’s are a threat they try to destroy it ….TRUMP is no difference he will back any thing agaisnt China …as I will back he does visit Ur mother mr. Sands !!!
John Tee You need to read the Korea war in more detail and from independent sources. The common doctrine was that Chinese beat the Marines back through human waves, in other words, these are not real men but they swarmed our heroic soliders who had no chance. Fact is, the Chinese were tactically superior. They targetted the weak links in the UN front lines especially the non US forces. Once broken through, they forced all their troops through that hole to outflank the US Marines and surround them. The US also committed many tactical sins. One of them was extended lines without artillary support. Plus being arrogant that China would never intervene.
earn your money, wumao
Trump wants deals, including Taiwan independence issue. He received Tsai’s call before he stepped onto the the platform of full presidency. After that , he behaved like US presidents before him. The recent Taiwan Travel Act was sponsored by the pro Taiwan faction in congress, with affection and interests related to TW. Trump has signed the act , with the knowledge that the act would automatically passed after a legally allowed period, with or without Trump’s signature. In the establishment circle of Washington, pro and con TW independence people are roughly divided half to half. Some want to use the issue to drag down China, others do not want the issue harm American interests in China. But Trump would not care much for the establishments. His power source is on the white blue collars, those group do not support investing money on any war which bares no relation with American safety. So TW is part of his deals, he would expect China to buy their way out with him.
KS Chin
There was a program on National Geographic some years ago that displayed the total inepness of the American military leadership in the Korean War. What it boiled down to was the fact that MacArthur was out generaled by the Chinese generals and the US suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of the Chinese. The only thing that saved the day, and that was that the US had unfettered control of the skys over Korea. But in a nutshell the Americans pushed to the Yalu river along a single highway flanked by mountains. The Chinese let them come and infiltrated down along the mountains on both sides of the American forces. When MacArthurs forces reached the river the Chinese attacked along his rear and blocked retreat. Then the massacre of american troops began. In some ways it was like Operation Barbarousa in that many american soldiers froze to death and had no supply lines open to them.
Cannot the same thing be said of the Afghan, Vietnam and Iraq Wars which clearly illustrates the real weakness of the American Military and that is it`s leadership. In short American Generals are politicians not imaginative military strategists and leaders. Between wars they build up their hubris and courage and group think hemselves into believing that the next war will go just fine. Too bad this time they have their attentions set on China, Iran and Russia. Thats when the American people will get to experience the fate of Iraquis, Afghans and Vietnamese.
John Tee never under estimate china’s will and resolve. There is relative peace now adays. Isnt it what taiwan wants? Then why rock the boat? You never know what china can do.
To unite with Taiwan ,China shall discard its communist ideology from entire mainland. China shall adopt and implement Taiwanese ideology. This union will succeed on when china dismantle Polit beauru and destroy communist party all committees.
John Tee It’s simple racism and ethnocentralism. You can see that reflected in views about the Mongols. Until relatively recently, most Western military historians didn’t list the Mongols among the top 10 armies in history. They discounted Mongolian military prowess as human waves attacks, lacking any concept of strategy or tactics b/c there’s no possible way barbarians are capable of defeating parity or numerically superior occidents. This same mentality is often repeated by older military historians about the Chinese in the Korean War and even the Japanese in WWII reforced by with their banzai attacks.
Godwin Yu Lim: "There is relative peace now adays. Isnt it what taiwan wants? Then why rock the boat?"
What Taiwan wants become less significant when it comes to what Emperor of Chaos wants. Does it want peace or does it want chaos?
Did you also tell Nepal that? You know your northern neighbor is now run by a nominally communist coalition government, right?