Rumors have swirled on both sides of the Taiwan Strait since the beginning of last year that Chinese President Xi Jinping was mulling taking back the wayward, self-ruling island of Taiwan in one fell swoop amid growing militancy among the Chinese masses.
Some have gone so far as to suggest that by the early 2020s the two sides would be in a state of belligerence as Xi, unlike his predecessors, has no scruples against waging a full-blown war to recapture what Beijing considers a renegade province.
They say that the year 2022, the end of Xi’s second tenure as the general secretary of the Communist Party of China, would be the deadline for him to exert his unrestrained powers to redeem the glory of the Middle Kingdom, after Xi has made “China dream” and “great revitalization” the tag lines of his rule.
“Xi’s grand visions will become empty platitudes if he fails to take back Taiwan before his second term ends, and in that case his ‘China dream’ will become a pipe dream, and he is fully aware of that,” said one analyst.
No one will doubt that China’s Central Military Commission and the People’s Liberation Army have in place a host of all-encompassing combat plans of tactics and deployment to suit all war scenarios, as well as stratagems to deter or fend off intervention by the US or Japan.
The Chinese military must have been updating these plans from time to time to reflect changes in geopolitics and Taiwan’s own defenses, for Xi to choose from should he feel that the time is ripe for a once-and-for-all, momentous action to tame and reclaim the island.
Meanwhile, Beijing has also been on a spree of building or inaugurating aircraft carriers, missiles, corvettes, destroyers, amphibious battleships and stealth fighters, fueling further speculation over whether Taiwan stands a chance when Xi, armed with the will of the rank and file, is girding for a new Chinese civil war.
While many observers believe Xi is readying the military and the nation for a showdown, a bid that will decide how he will go down in history, veteran military commentator Andrei Chang noted in the Kanwa Defense Review that the PLA’s big guns and ships may be for show to make Washington and Tokyo think twice before stepping in, and a trigger doesn’t have to be pulled now that Xi has a slew of non-military options at his disposal.
The Hong Kong-based current-affairs monthly SuperMedia also reported that among the many diplomatic and economic means to subjugate the island is issuing Taiwan Special Administrative Region passports and granting hukou (Chinese household registration) and permanent residency to the 2 million Taiwanese already residing in mainland China.
Previous reports also suggest that the PLA’s first overseas base, which sits right on the Horn of Africa in Djibouti, is aimed at Taiwan, since the resource-scarce island relies substantially on the narrow waterway linking the Suez Canal and the Arabian Sea for oil imports from the Middle East as well as trade with Europe. From the Djibouti base PLA troops could intercept tankers ferrying oil to Taiwan and seal off the island’s trade artery in no time.
Beijing’s frenzied investment and acquisitions targeting stakes in mines, oilfields and energy firms in the Belt and Road countries could also jeopardize Taiwan’s economic security should Beijing decree an embargo of crude oil and other natural resources, according to Chang.
The raft of economic, trade, financial and logistical measures short of a shooting war to contain Taiwan won’t provide an opening for Washington to weight in, yet given time, they could work to coerce Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen into coming to terms with Xi and accepting whatever he has in store for a treaty to create a future Taiwan Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China.
Xi’s platitudes would look even more empty if he started a war and lost it. Taiwan might be part of China, but it is 180 kilometres from the mainland, more than five times the width of the English Channel. Any expedition from the People’s Republic to Taiwan would be an overseas invasion, more like the invasion of Sicily than the D-Day landing. An amphibious landing is the most difficult of all military operations. It’s not an undertaking for a country with little to no experience in amphibious warfare.
Nan Zhang When people are abused – it is EVERYONE’S business.
Well, from the outside it sounds like an anti-commie vent, but for the 23 million citizens of Taiwan, it’s a very real, very scary thing. They’ve worked hard to build their way of life, and fewer and fewer people here want to give that up.
This is a foolish comment article about the issue of two countries across the Taiwan Strait. Not only naive, but also dumb! Taiwan is a free and demoractic country. If the Chinese regime boycott the oil supply for Taiwan, US, EU and Japan will exert their oil tankers to supply oil to Taiwan likewise. Does Chinese army dare to detain their oil
tankers in the public sea? Furthermore, the so-called 2 milliom Taiwanese are just making a living in China for money. Can you assure that these 2 million Taiwanese don’t leave for Southeast Asia for pursuing lower cost of producing? What a stupid journalist!
This article is rubbish. Not going to happen. Totally discounts American long standing commitment to Taiwan.
The US is hell bent on preventing China in gaining unimpeded access to the Pacific. It will be difficult for the Americans to monitor Chinese nuclear subs if it happens. Taiwan will be ideal for a submarine base.
You must be dreaming,pls read some histry bro because you are way out in history.
Pat Patterson
Pat Patterson, still, its none of your business.
Taiwan must bring into consideration that the US, as a nation itself not a free nation and its monetary system made her own people slaves, before going against the hope of the Chinese people. One China policy must be honoured and executed through a peaceful and respectful negotiation, never even contemplate for going to go for war option.
Mon Mah Wow – you must have an excellet VPN. Or perhaps… you don’t need one…. I suspect the latter.
I can think of very few countries in history that has achieved independence without bloodshed. The problem for Taiwan is that very few of the 23 million people on the island have the stomach, capability or intellect for protract war with a greater power.
Taiwan will end up being absorbed into the Chinese diaspora. Just a matter of time.