U.S. judge blocks Trump administration’s ban on new TikTok downloads
It is difficult to point to a recent picture of South Korean President Moon Jae-in in which he is not beaming.
This should not be surprising. Be it hosting an A-list North Korean delegation to the Winter Games, successfully navigating perilous diplomatic waters between China, Japan and the US, or benefitting from a domestic opposition that is in utter disarray, the sun is shining upon Moon.
The liberal politician, a former special forces soldier, ex-human rights lawyer and key aide to the late liberal president Roh Moo-hyun, assumed office after his second presidential bid in May 2017, when he won the snap election called following the impeachment of conservative rival Park Geun-hye (currently on trial and in detention) in March of that year.
Bright outlook for Moon
Moon is a masterly people politician who never tires of taking selfies with fans. His popularity has taken two minor dents this year after his government’s moves to ban Bitcoin trading and promote an inter-Korean women’s ice hockey team proved unpopular among youngsters. But his support base remains massive.
“Right now his popularity is at one of the all-time highest for a South Korean president – over 60% support is unprecedented,” said James Kim, a research fellow who studies public opinion at the Asan Institute. “Things are looking good for him.”
He is the master of the political landscape. His Democratic Party has 121 seats in the 300-seat National Assembly, while the conservative opposition is close behind, with 117 seats. But the conservatives, since Park’s ouster, have been in disarray and are facing a leadership issue, which is not expected to be resolved until later this year.
The only plebiscite this year – in July – is local elections, which cannot dent his power on national policy-making power. On the streets, anti-Moon demonstrators – the predominantly elderly “flag protesters” – are winning little traction. “There are ongoing protests against what he is trying to do, but they are a minority voice and are not getting articulated in the media or the National Assembly,” said Mike Breen, author of ‘The New Koreans.’ “They are Christian/conservative/anti-North Korean/pro-Park Geun-hye, so are not really denting Moon’s popularity.”
Korea’s government appoints the heads of terrestrial broadcasters, so Moon may confidently anticipate positive TV coverage. The privately-owned conservative print media lost much of its reader base last year when it turned against Park. While right-wing dailies are sniping at some of Moon’s key policies – notably, his moves to reign in the power abuse of conglomerates and promotion of a minimum wage – they are critics only. “None of them are proposing alternatives,” Asan’s Kim said. “It is not constructive.”
This lack of effective political opposition, combined with ineffectual protests and media criticism, grants Moon a clear political run in which to push through his agenda, until National Assembly elections in 2020.
A balancing act on all fronts
While he currently enjoys an unusual lack of opposition at home, Moon’s delicate maneuverings between powerful conflicting interests overseas have been adroit.
Moon has kept key ally the United States on-side by retaining a missile defense system installed in South Korea on the orders of his predecessor. This system infuriated China, which sees it as a threat to itself. At a summit with Chinese President Xi Jin-ping in December, Moon convinced a reluctant Beijing to reverse many of its earlier (unofficial) sanctions against Korean companies and sectors.
He has shown equal delicacy in defusing the “comfort woman” issue, which has long bedeviled relations with Tokyo. He has assuaged domestic opinion by publicly meeting and sympathizing with ex-comfort women and their supporters while demanding further apologies from Japan. But on the diplomatic front, he has not reversed a landmark 2015 agreement between the two capitals, disappointing civic groups who have been championing the issue, embarrassing and angering Tokyo.
A firm anti-nuclear politician, Moon has endorsed strong sanctions and upgraded Korea-US military drills against North Korea while calling for it to denuclearize. But Moon has also been firm that there must be no war in Korea, and has been consistently held out for talks with Pyongyang.
That consistency was rewarded at the Winter Games, when the highest-powered North Korean delegation ever came South. Included in it, was Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, the first member of North Korea’s ruling dynasty to visit Seoul in the divided peninsula’s history. There had been high hopes in the South that she would convey a letter from her brother inviting Moon to summit there. That message was, indeed, delivered.
Although many South Koreans were irked at Seoul’s insistence on an inter-Korean women’s ice hockey team – which lost 8-0 in their first match, against Switzerland – the optics of IOC President Thomas Bach, Moon and Kim sitting together in the stands were powerful. Excited rumors are already spreading online that the joint team may be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize.
Challenges in Pyongyang, perils in Seoul
Moon should enjoy his time in the sun; his next steps need to be even more adroit than his previous ones.
To the surprise of many, US President Donald Trump fully endorsed Moon’s engagement with Pyongyang, putting the South Korean president in the unusual position of leading the American president.
While US Vice President Mike Pence undiplomatically declined to speak to, or even acknowledge the North Koreans during his visit to the Winter Games (snubs the North Koreans returned), he has since made an apparent about-face. The Washington Post, on February 11, reported a conversation with Pence on Air Force Two during his return to the US. Pence said he and Moon had agreed on an engagement plan with Pyongyang, with first Seoul, then potentially Washington, entering direct talks with the regime.
Even so, Moon’s biggest task still lies ahead. Establishing contact with the Kim regime is easier than negotiating with it, particularly as Pyongyang has said it will never abandon its nuclear arms. “Moon is under no illusions on the centrality of the nuclear issue, he is not going to come back from Pyongyang waving a piece of paper about business deals,” said author Breen. “If the North does not want to talk about it, he may not even go.”
This means Moon’s success – and legacy – may be beholden to the leader north of the DMZ.
“What will happen after the Games will determine whether Moon has achieved success or not, and the ball is in Kim Jong-un’s court,” said Kim Byung-joo of the Korea Development Institute. “If North Korea comes out with a bit of a forthcoming posture, Moon’s visit to Pyongyang could materialize.”
To enable a visit to Pyongyang, Moon may have to convince the Americans to scale back or delay annual spring military drills – something the US side, pursuing a policy of “maximum pressure,” is reluctant to do. This could place Moon in a tricky position. “He could veto things or restrict access to bases if he wanted to,” said Daniel Pinkston, an international relations expert at Duke University. “But it would seem pretty difficult and could cause frictions, unless it is a mutual decision.”
Further down the line, and regardless of how well he manages inter-Korean and Korea-American relations, Moon is facing a potentially even more menacing dynamic domestically: The dire record of all previous South Korean presidents in their late-office and/or post-office terms. Since the establishment of the republic in 1948, one has been exiled in disgrace, one assassinated, one sentenced to death, three have seen family members jailed, one has committed suicide and one has been impeached.
“The South Korean president has too much power, so too much is expected of him, which means that, after about a year, people start to be disappointed, then you get the inevitable scandals involving aides and family members,” warned Breen. “I don’t think he will escape this pattern.”
It is technically incorrect to claim that DPRK never put its nuclear program the negotiating table. It did, several times, of course on the understandable condition that the US guarantees its security. Moon is really a very smart man but has a difficult job. His efforts will come to naught if the US is not convinced that its concessions to DPRK have comparable returns.
South Korea is now submerged by a wave of nationalism, a wave of unification of Korea, under the nuclear umbrella of North Korea. Whether USA likes it or not, whether USA accepts it or not, North Korea USA nuclear power with ICBMs that can strike any city in USA. North Korea will never give up its nukes under any circumstances. And the South Koreans, too,would not wish their North Korean brothers, sisters and cousins to give up their nukes, because the North Korean nuclear arsenal protects the South Koreans against the American invaders and murderers. Whatever the Americans may say, American soldiers are militarily occupying South Korea and USA holds South Korea hostage. Most of the time, it is the Americans who declare that South Korea is their ally, but South Korea rarely, indeed never, declared that the Americans are their allies. Under the protection of the nuclear arsenal of North zkoreans, South Korea is slowly coming out of its shell to challenge the American authority, first by insisting on its right to speak freely instead of letting the Americans speaking of its behalf, then on its right to conduct its foreign policy particularly in its relation with its brother in the north, and finally to demand the removal of all American soldiers out of Korea.
After the NK nuclear force has reached operational stage – which could be very soon – NK may perfectly afford freezing any nuclear and ICBM tests, and wait to see if the world gets used to NK having nuclear weapons. Without tests there will be little room for further sanctions, and those in force may slowly be forgotten. I believe SK could live with that…
" Excited rumors are already spreading online that the joint team may be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize."
I wouldn’t be so excited, rather scared by a Nobel Peace Prize, given the names in the NPP list… Wouldn’t Kissinger’s and Obama’s names be enough to make any sensible person or entity disgusted, risking to be in that list ?
George you are right; now in Asia only one country is left to come to its senses: Japan. Forget about Australia or India, they mean nothing, other than troubles.
If Japan will understand – very quickly – where history is heading, then we might all feel a bit easier.
The successful nuclear program is the sole reason North Korea still exists and not only that, but was able to push South Korea to the negotiation table. Therefore, its continuation is obviously non-negotiable by definition (it evens make economic sense, since assymetric warfare equals automation of the armed forces, which frees human resources to other sectors of the economy. So the North can give itself the luxury of lowering the number of soldiers).
But Moon Jae-in’s heart is in the correct place, i.e. he wants his country to live. His peaceful approach is making the USA nervous. If I were him, I would be cautious with regime change or even assassination attempts by the right-wing faction of his own country (including the high command of his armed forces, elite forces and intelligence agency).
Have no fear for the life of Moon Jae In or the fate of South Korea. Moon Jae In and South Korea are under the protection of North Korea. The Americans can no longer harm Moon Jae In or South Korea. This is the promise that North Korea has given to Moon Jae In and to South Korea in general. The nuclear arsenal and the ICBMs of North Korea not only protect North Korea but also radiate its power to South Korea and even to Japan.
I do not think that the Korean hockey team, or any other Korean for that matter, is interested with the Nobel Peace Prize. They are more interested in kicking out the American soldiers out of their country and to reunify their country after 70 years of separation due to invasion by American invaders, murderers and rapists.
Pence’s shameful behavior was on full display as he actively worked to sabotage the efforts by Koreans on both sides to move towards a more normal relationship. In the middle of this feelgood moment, he even sent Abe to pressure Moon to commit to starting the military drills right after the end of the Olympics. Contrast this behavior with the strong support Moon has received from China.
The US benefits from tension on the Korean peninsula as it creates a pretext to continue its virtual occupation of South Korea for its geopolitical purposes. If peace breaks out, the need for the US to continue its occupation disappears.
As to demands that the North give up its nuclear weapons, why would it? Iraq and Libya both ended their weapons programs, presumably in exchange for verbal assurances that they would be rewarded by friendly relations with the US. That did not end well. Iran agreed to destroy any infrastructure necessary for any nuclear weapons program in exchange for normal relations with the West. Guess what? The US refuses to end sanctions, adds more, and is maneuvering to convince Britain, France, and Germany to help wreck the agreement!
Oh, and let us not forget that NK DID agree to end its weapons program, and took steps in that direction, in exchange for a US commitment to a broad program of normal economic and political relations. The US sabotaged this too.
Does this kind of shameful record inspire confidence in Pyongyang? How could ANY responsible leader trust that unilateral disarmament is the way to peace with the United States?
Michael Chan all you talk about is NKorea will protect SK, who will protect SK from NK and China. Look at what China is doing to Tibet and Tibetian Culture. Maybe you are too young when the Cultural Revolution happened or ignorant about the massacre of your own citizen students in Tiananmen Square.
Sam Genokapi,
South Koreans and North Koreans are brothers, sisters and cousins. The South Koreans have no fear of their brothers in the North. In fact, the South Koreans long to be united with their brothers in the North. China too is not a threat to the South Koreans. The murderous Americans make you believe that NK and China are a threat to one and all, when in fact the Americans are the the aggressors, the invaders and the murderers. USA has been keeping South Korea and Japan hostages while at the same time claiming that they, the Americans, are protecting Japan and South Korea, like the mafia always claim that they protect their victims. But now that North Korea is a nuclear power, it can protect not only itself but also South Korea and even Japan from the murderous hand of the USA. The accession of North Korea to the status of a nuclear power is a tectonic shift in the political picture of East Asia, and even Asia. Slowly, USA will drift away from Asia.
Hahaha, so says the typical brainwashed yankee on their usual and predictable diatribe about tibet which is all wrong and distorted from true facts.
Kim Jung Un must be really stupid if he gives up North Korea’s weapons program. It is the only reason he is still alive. Whatbis the point if the negitiation when younknow nothing will happen considering that you are asking for the impossible. The US should scale down its demands and not ask the other something it cannot give.
This is why you should never allow MA-holders to cover foreign policy. North Koreans are far smarter to handle these so-called journalists.
In South Korea, there are few people who claim for nuclear armament. However, such minority view is totally ignored inside Korea because it is simply absurd. First, the current NPT system will also not allow South Korea to develop nuclear weapon while it maintains its open economy. Second, South Korean economy is heavily dependent on international trade, and it wants to maintain the region as stable as possible. If South Korea has nuclear weapon (or even after unification), Japan and Taiwan will also claim for nuclear armament. This scenario has nothing to help South Korea. Nationalism? Hmm… when I watch Korean media, I sense that only half of people are excited about the visit of North Korean team.. President’ Moon’s approval rating declined significantly by his decision to make the joint hockey team.
As I understand it, a major reason some people, most young, resisted the idea of a joint hockey team was that that would take away the chances of playing from South Korean athletes. The idea was clearly political, to promote the spirit of reconciliation. Considering the alternatives, the price is well worth it.
An otherwise well-written and cleverly titled article ends with an unfair judgement and eerie prediction–South Korean president has "too much" power and Prez Moon "will (not be able to) escape family-related scandals? Is that your or Breen’s wishful thinking? Please don’t quote such ill-informed and downright mean fake specialist. Prez. Moon is the one who wants to establish "Gongsucheo" which is a crime-investigation agency for high-ranking public officials (that include the president him/herself).
Thanks