Two things differentiate the downing of a Russian Su-25 ground-attack jet in the western province of Idlib on February 3 from the drone attacks on the Russian air base at Hmeimim a month earlier.
One, Russia could thwart the attack on January 5 by a wave of drone aircraft but singularly failed to anticipate the use of man-portable air defense systems by extremists operating in Idlib under Turkish watch. Russia lost an ace fighter pilot in the latter attack.
Two, Moscow sensed an American hand in the drone attack on January 5, but this time around Russia’s Tass news agency promptly highlighted an American denial on record. The Kremlin’s Dmitry Peskov made a point of cautioning against speculations “before one gets precise information as to how terrorists in Syria got that particular man-portable air defense system and other weapons that they have.”
Notably, however, an influential lawmaker – Dmitry Sablin, coordinator of the Russia-Syria parliamentary friendship group – went ahead to “speculate,” saying: “We have information that the MANPADS used to bring down our jet was brought into Syria from a neighboring country several days ago. Countries from whose territory weapons arrive, that are then used against Russian servicemen, must understand that this will not go unpunished.”
Idlib province is situated right on Syria’s border with Turkey. It is supposed to be a “sealed border” under strict surveillance by Turkish security agencies. If what Sablin alleged was based on factual information, Russian intelligence recently monitored the transfer of MANPADS from Turkey to extremists.
Curiously, the day after Sablin spoke, Turkey came out with a counter-allegation of its own, attributed to “security sources,” to the effect that the weaponry used in the attack against a Turkish army tank on February 3 by Kurds in Afrin “might have been a Russian-made 9M113 Konkurs” and that the “claim is being evaluated.” Five Turkish soldiers were killed in that attack.
Suffice to say, the air is thick with innuendos and dark hints that Russia and Turkey may have drawn each other’s blood on February 3, despite notionally being allies in Syria’s hybrid war.
In January, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reached out to President Vladimir Putin to clarify the situation. But over the latest incident, no such exchange has so far taken place, even though Erdogan is under obligation to initiate one – according to the understanding reached in talks in Astana last year following the Syrian ceasefire, Turkey is entrusted with setting up “observation posts” in Idlib to monitor the activities of extremist groups.
Meanwhile, on February 5, Putin sent an effusive message to Nicos Anastasiades congratulating him on his re-election as the President of the Republic of Cyprus. Putin’s message expressed confidence that the “constructive dialogue” and “joint work” by the two countries are in the mutual interests of both and “in keeping with efforts to improve stability and security in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean.” Cyprus’ relations with Turkey have been unfriendly ever since the Turkish invasion and occupation of the northern part of the country in 1974.
For Turkey, the knot is three-fold. Firstly, it cannot come to terms with the new reality that Russia (which has civilizational ties with Greece and Cyprus) has today become the dominant power in the Eastern Mediterranean. Secondly, it disapproves of ongoing Syrian military operations, supported by air power, to regain control of Idlib from opposition groups that have enjoyed Turkish support. And, above all, thirdly, Erdogan’s grand design to establish a permanent Turkish foothold in Syria (which was ruled by the Ottomans), will remain a pipedream so long as Russia underpins Syria’s unity and territorial integrity. Turkey has all along viewed Moscow’s links with the Kurds in Afrin suspiciously.
Erdogan is well aware that the US will see advantages in the developing situation to push its containment strategy against Iran more effectively in Syria and to isolate the Assad regime
Typically, therefore, Erdogan will now seek a modus vivendi with the US. Of course, it will be a dream come true for the US if the hairline crack in the Russian-Turkish axis in Syria widens and becomes a rift in the coming weeks. In their opposition to the establishment of Russian bases in Syria, Washington and Ankara are on the same page.
On the other hand, the Pentagon will expect Erdogan to give up his plans to launch any military operation to attack the Kurds in Manbij. The US simply cannot accede to the Turkish demand that it break its alliance with Syria’s Kurds. US Defence Secretary James Mattis hinted on Friday that talks are going on with Turkey to dissuade Erdogan from ordering an operation on Manbij.
For his part, Erdogan will seek a tradeoff with the Trump administration to create conditions for a broader rapprochement with the US. He is well aware that the US will see advantages in the developing situation to push its containment strategy against Iran more effectively in Syria and to isolate the Assad regime. Indeed, a rift in the Russian-Turkish axis in Syria opens an entirely new ball game in the country, one that enables the US to create new facts on the ground and negotiate harder on the terms of a future Syrian settlement. Israel is also a stakeholder here.
Erdogan all along hankered for an enhanced role for Turkey as the flag carrier in the West’s strategies in Syria, fancying himself to be the role model for the Muslim Middle East. But President Barack Obama was disinterested in any such dalliance with the mercurial Sultan in Ankara.
Things are very much in flux, though. Erdogan met Pope Francis on Monday. It was the first time in 59 years that a Turkish President had visited the Vatican.
"Assessment" is a meagre wishful thinking that didn’t hold water for 48 hours.
On several or many occasions, nations / armies besieging Israel fought amongst themselves, killed themselves in hundreds and thousands…..read the narrative from the Bible.
Today, all the nations surrounding Israel may be minding their businesses in Syria and Iraq, but be warned, that the magnetic field surrounding Jerusalem is propagated spiritually by the LION OF THE TRIBE OF JUDAH….as of old, unchanged.
The nations; whether minding their businesses around Israel are still affected by the Magnetic Field, therefore, Russia, Turkey, Hezbollah, Iran, must take note, that the FIGHT is not against Flesh & Blood.
The fight is against Heaven / Principalities / Powers of Darkness . So therefore all military plans must give room to the super natural.
Wrong speculations
I normally see a lot of merit in the author’s various analyses except when it comes to Turkey for reasons best known to him. At the end of the day we have to a) look after one’s own security and b)follow the money. In terms of security we know that the US has probably had a hand in trying to destabilise Turkey. Yes, the 2016 attempted coup, the arming of the Kurds and the "leaking of weapons to PKK in Turkey. Despite Turkey’s pleas the US continued its policy and then decided to create a 30,000 strong mainly Kurdish army (possibly to create a US/Israeli aligned "Kurdistan".
Then take into account the growing economic relationship between Turkey and Russia, the gas pipeline, The Turkey/Iran/ China OBOR link and Erdogan will be a fool to sacrifice all that with a preference for the US. Especially considering the US/Israeli history in the Middle East.
No, Sir, I believe your analysis lacks balance.
Well, I know one thing is for sure the US will do its utmost to complicate the issues. US must create havoc and try to win back Turkey as their allied, if not the US Global Strategies for EurAsia and the Middle East goes down the drain.
Sultan Erdogan dreams of a new Ottoman Empire still show up every night, so does Netanyahu dreams to bring his neighborhood back to the stone age. Israel will continue to bomb everything that looks like an Iranian tent in Syria. Russia must stop all these violations of Syrian Sovereignty, but that will not be easy. The Kurd issues must be resolved peacefully. The Kurds has been victimized so many times already. Balkanization will be a disaster, so other solutions must be looked into.
It is simply a fact that Erdogon is a slippery opportunist and cannot be trusted. If the US offers him a sweet enough deal, he will switch sides. It will be interesting to see what Washington offers.
OKAY, BUT STOP SHOUTING!!
“We have information that the MANPADS used to bring down our jet was brought into Syria from a neighboring country several days ago. Countries from whose territory weapons arrive, that are then used against Russian servicemen, must understand that this will not go unpunished.” Hmmm. . . Not Iran, not Lebanon, ???
it will be a dream come true for the US if the hairline crack in the Russian-Turkish axis in Syria widens and becomes a rift in the coming weeks.
Small man-portable weapons are creating tensions between US enemy Russia and US ally Turkey?.. . I smell CIA, which is capable of doing more than dreaming..
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NO ONE SEEMS TO UNDERSTAND ! THE REGIEM UNSPOKEN HERE IS ISRAEL.DONT THINK THEY WONT PLAY THIS LIKE A PIANO. THEY WILL PUSH ERDOGAN INTO NOT SOME DEAL THAT WILL MAKE A US /TRUKISH ALLIANCE BASED ON THEIR NATO RELATIONSHIP. THUS DRIVING A WEDGE IN THE RUSO-IRAN-HEZZBULLAH- SYRIA COALITION.
Speculations. Turkey could just proceed with the war against the Kurds and the Russian stays to prop up Assad’s regime while the US continuosly loses face. They all wait and see what happens next. That is it.
Once again the Sultan revealed his true colour, however I doubt if Putin will allow the situation to degenerate because he is a cold blooded pragmatist. His sight his transfixed on the end game and he knows a lot of flux like this would occur but with realistic understanding they needed to be overcome before reaching that end. Edorgan is a necessary evil which the Russia/Iran/ Syria axis will have to tolerate for now, to try and take on every opposition in Syria is a fools errand one that will play into the advantage of the US and enmeshed Russia in a quagmire, a lesson learnt in the theatre of Afghanistan, and the Sultan is neither a friend nor enemy of Russia in the Syria arena, he is simply watching out for Turkey’s.
However, this type of opportunistic politicking is highly dangerous in the long run as Ali Abdullah Salehi later found out to his ditrement and I believe the respite from regime change Edorgan enjoy borders on the infighting in Washington within the political elites and is just a stop gap measure. The day of reckoning still lies ahead and when it finally arrived who knows the price it may demand from the him.