President Hassan Rouhani will pay a three-day official visit to India on February 15. What stands out most is the timing – this visit comes at a juncture when tensions are cascading in Iran’s standoff with the US and Israel, with the White House hell-bent on bringing the Iranian regime to its knees. Without doubt, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invitation to Rouhani signifies strategic defiance of the US.
Washington may have sensed the message already. President Donald Trump telephoned Modi on February 9 for a tour d’horizon. In a rambling conversation, they exchanged views on issues as varied as North Korea, Afghanistan and the Maldives but Trump’s intention was to mark his territory. Modi’s office is yet to give the customary readout.
Just over a month ago, Trump unveiled his 2018 National Security Strategy, which projected Iran as a threat to the security of the US and its allies in the Middle East. Simply put, Delhi is openly dissenting – and signaling that India-Iran ties will be preserved and advanced, no matter the Iran policy of the US.
The expansion of co-operation with India provides Iran with strategic depth in regional politics, given the likelihood of the US imposing more sanctions. The highlight of Rouhani’s visit will be plans for Indian investments in infrastructure projects in Iran.
Iran now figures as the third biggest supplier of oil to India (after Saudi Arabia and Iraq). Iran’s oil exports to India surged to 20 million tonnes in the first nine months of the current financial year (April to December, 2017.) Energy cooperation will, therefore, be a major topic of discussion between Modi and Rouhani. India is 80% dependent on imports to meet its oil needs and India’s economy is growing at a high rate. India-Iran energy cooperation is like a marriage made in heaven.
Meanwhile, the entry of Russian oil companies to develop Iran’s gas fields opens a new vista of trilateral cooperation. Russia has voiced interest in constructing a gas pipeline from Iran to India. Rosneft, one of the Russian companies active in Iran, acquired an Indian private refiner (Essar Oil) in a US$13 billion deal last August. Rosneft’s Indian subsidiary has ambitious plans to invest to the tune of US$30 billion to develop business in the highly lucrative Indian retail market for refined petroleum products.
Russia has high stakes in three-way Russian-Iranian-Indian cooperation in the field of energy. Interestingly, Russia and Iran are also planning to switch to using national currencies in settlements by the end of 2018. The implications are far-reaching if India aligns with the momentum of a Russian-Iranian strategic axis.
India is already tapping a transportation route through Chabahar Port, in southeastern Iran, to access Afghanistan. Last month, New Delhi also signed the Ashgabat Agreement, a concord involving Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Oman and Iran that aims at developing yet another transportation network to enhance regional connectivity. Clearly, Iran figures in the Indian strategic calculus as a hub in regional connectivity. The criticality of Iran as a strategic partner also needs to be understood against the backdrop of India’s problematic relations with Pakistan and China.
The India-Iran mutual understanding has matured to a point that neither side is making demands on the other’s strategic autonomy. India is free to cherry-pick – it can maintain ties with Israel and petrodollar states in the Persian Gulf, some of which are on adversarial terms with Iran. Similarly, Iran’s strong ties with China and its self-interest in steering ties with Pakistan harmoniously do not raise hackles in Delhi.
Both Modi and Putin are highly nationalistic in their outlook but at the same time realistic about politics being, ultimately, the art of the possible
Afghanistan will be a major topic of discussion between Modi and Rouhani. Iran has lately become very vocal about the imperative need for the US to vacate the country. Trump’s Afghan strategy, on the other hand, confers on India pride of place as the US’ key partner. But then, the rhetoric is almost entirely Trump’s. India will be striving to blend with regional opinion, especially Russia’s and Iran’s, while making its own assessments of the situation in Afghanistan.
New Delhi has neatly sidestepped US overtures to keep India inside the American orbit. Meanwhile, the traditional Indian-Iranian convergence on Afghanistan, riveted on a shared interest in fighting terrorism and religious extremism, may well find traction during Rouhani’s visit. Specifically, the two countries are stakeholders in any serious regional initiative to reach a settlement in Afghanistan.
In the final analysis, however, Rouhani’s visit by far exceeds the definition of a bilateral event. In many ways it will signpost India’s foreign-policy trajectory. Modi has, to date, taken a “pro-American” tilt and held back on his natural instincts toward engaging China constructively. But the balance sheet presents a dismal picture.
Climbing on the bandwagon of the US’ Asia-Pacific strategy and pursuit of a hardline policy toward China (at the behest of an influential coalition of pro-American lobbyists within the Indian establishment) has run its course and proved to be a road to nowhere. No tangible gains have accrued to India through the excessive zeal to be the US’ “natural partner,” In fact, the effects of hardline policies toward China over the last three years have meant pushing India-China relations to the brink of war. The US has been the net winner.
Modi understands this. An early sign of his growing disillusionment with the US was visible in the body language he exhibited in his extended visit to St. Petersburg in June last year. Modi clocked several hours over three days formally and informally exchanging views with President Vladimir Putin on a one-to-one level. The Indian premier later described it as a “very productive” visit.
Curiously, Modi and Putin are strikingly similar personalities – completely self-made people who are strong-willed and proud of their achievements. Both are highly nationalistic in their outlook but at the same time realistic about politics being, ultimately, the art of the possible.
The signs of an incipient new trajectory in Indian foreign policy were there in mid-December when India cast its vote on the western resolution in the United Nations condemning Russia on human rights violations in Crimea and Sevastopol. India had the option to abstain, but instead it voted against the western resolution and expressed solidarity with Russia in what many are seeing as an emerging new Cold War.
What is unfolding is a delicate transition and the fact that Rouhani’s visit to India was kept under wraps until the penultimate hour underscores that Delhi is mindful of shark-infested waters. After all, easing oneself from the tight handshake of a US president who prides himself on being the consummate deal-maker in the service of America First is no small matter.
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Its the other way around. Modi recent foreign policy developments has foced the critic to concede.
Muslims of India are more patriotic than us Hindus ….when to it comes to our Sovereignty n Integrity ,Indian Muslims always stands forefront
After so much criticism of Mr. Modi, Mr. Bhadrakumar seems to have turned into a supporter in the last couple of pieces. And the headline writer gilds the lily. I keep wondering whether Mr. Bhadrakumar is trying to flatter Mr. Modi into following the policies he thinks best. I’d probably think them best, too, so I don’t mind. I always enjoy and learn from Mr. Bhadrakumar’s pieces.
Personally, I think India and China should be friends, not enemies. No big country can be trustworthy — they have to work for the good of their own people and state — but great countries can still work together, carefully.
Ram Anand Chage the name from China to India, then you have it right…
M.K. BHADRAKUMAR’s optimisim usually turn out to be not the case. Modi has no independent policy, but vote banks.
"The US and India are leading an effort to get Pakistan included in the grey list of Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an intergovernmental organisation which monitors cases of money laundering and terror financing across the globe, reported Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper."
Times of India article today.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/us-and-india-working-together-to-get-pakistan-included-in-fatfs-grey-list/articleshow/62903631.cms
No alliance is total. The US continues to deal with Pakistan, and that does not suit India. The UK vote against the US recently on Jerusalem. Even Castro maintained friendship with Franco to the surprise of the USSR. But it is the main trend that matters, and the Indian trend towards the USA is unmistakeable.
A couple of months ago American websites pointed to the growing relationship between America and India and a consequent isolation of Iran. I did not see it that way.
I pointed that Iran’s ‘soft power" extends into the subcontinent which help creat the Mughal Empire. That empire is the heritage of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, with Pakistan and India more connected to Iran due to that Empire. This is in addition to the amount of oil India and Pakistan get from Iran.
That Iran’s proud heritage includes belonging to the "Gunpowder Empires" which include the Mughal Empire (India/Pakistan/Bangladesh), The Safavid Empire (Iran) and the Ottoman Empire. Her rise as a nuclear power is natural process of this heritage.
To the West the Persian Empire has challenged Europe since the times of ancient Greece. A nation of 650 thousand square miles (larger than Alaska) with strategic points as in the straits of Hormuz and the Gulf, the Iranian theocracy is not going to be so easy to isolate…no matter how much Israel demands it. (no pun intended. Israel makes demands that America puts into policy)
The "anti Pakistan- pro India’ rhetoric by Trump sounded hollow mainly due to the CPEC with China and the rising Hindu militant nationalism in India which would not take a junior position to America…even with the relabling of the Pacific ocean to the "Indo Pacific Ocean"
But ultimately what is becoming clear is that when it comes to the Middle East Israel, and not the US, calls the shots.
Trump misses one important fact in his dealings with the rest of the world: other people aren’t nearly as stupid as he is, and so can see right through his malice. He forces everyone to appreciate exactly how manners and respect actually matter on all levels: private and political. US rashness and razzmatazz is past its sell by date, as are Thatcherism and Reaganite individualism. Trump is just a nasty hangover from their ugly, failed and socially debilitating ideologies ‘. Time to cuff the hands of ‘free market’ individualism good and proper. People have and must be accorded more value than objects or property, especially in the coming age of robots. Freedom ‘from’ is as important as freedom ‘to’, which cannot be allowed to include the freedom to exploit others. It’s basic politeness (not just ideology) that is lacking amomg our political and economic leaders and systems.
Phew! Mostly irrelevant, but I feel better ????
Modi seems to want to have a finger in every pie with a tempting 1 Billion ++ consumers. Modi’s challenges is to decrease the bureaucracy and to keep his election promise on dependable energy for everyone.
India has the best engineers in the world, so here can many high paying jobs be created. Tourism potential is huge, English skills excellent, and cooperation with China to manufacture and invent more green energy products is interesting ideas.
Well well well… Is Modi following "zig-zag Erdogan" ?
Nothing we can do, other than keeping a close look at them, wait and see.
India is charting its own course and it will not always be according to the gospel of Trump or the US. They have always been neutral. They should remain as such with only its interests to protect. They should continue improving bilateral relations with its neighbors or they will be left behind.
These 3 leaders can work for peace better than US % Israel.
What a tireless bullshitting Chinese whore this Bhadrakumar is.