The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and other regional powers have, despite their best diplomatic efforts, wholly failed to tame China’s maritime ambitions in the South China Sea and beyond.
If anything, Beijing seems to have been emboldened by the apparent acquiescence of its smaller neighbors, which in recent years have wavered between inaction and faint resistance to China’s rising militarization of the contested maritime area.
But Beijing’s unilateral activities in the area, including a big build-up of artificial islands, have provoked a high-stakes debate in even friendly countries such as the Philippines, where the defense establishment is once again openly questioning the wisdom of the elected government’s seeming accommodation.
Under Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s chairmanship of Asean in 2017, the regional bloc maintained that the situation in the South China Sea was generally stable, meaning there was no need for confrontation or criticism of China’s activities, though Vietnam lobbied for a firmer collective response.
The Duterte administration insisted that the disputes are best resolved among claimant countries on a bilateral basis, discouraging intervention by external actors and the broader international community. Asean members the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei all have competing claims with China in the area.
Manila also refused to raise its own landmark arbitration award at The Hague against China, which nullified the legality of Beijing’s wide-reaching nine-dashed-line map claim over the area, in either its bilateral or multilateral engagements with relevant powers.
Asean also endorsed the negotiation of a legally-binding Code of Conduct (CoC), which has been underway for almost two decades, as the best way forward in managing the South China Sea disputes.
But just as Chinese and Asean nation diplomats negotiated the framework for common rules in the disputed waters, Beijing again changed the facts at sea.
Last year, China pressed ahead with expanding its artificially-built islands over contested land features by reclaiming an additional 290,000 square meters of territory. China also deployed advanced military assets to its claimed features, some replete with military runways, including radar systems and weapon storage facilities.
Experts believe that China is moving closer to establishing full-fledged naval and air bases in the Spratly and Paracel chains of islands as a potential prelude to the imposition of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the South China Sea, a crucial waterway for global trade.
China has not denied its unilateral reconfiguration of disputed areas and has proudly announced its expanding military footprint in the area, stating that the reclamation activities and deployment of new military assets were “reasonably” undertaken.
Under Duterte, the Philippines has sought better relations with the Asian powerhouse in hopes of finding a mutually acceptable and peaceful solution in the South China Sea.
In response to reports of China’s reclamation activities last year, Duterte’s presidential spokesperson Harry Roque maintained that the Philippine government is still “relying on China’s good faith”, since “China has committed not to embark on new reclamations” in the area, particularly over land features claimed by the Philippines.
Roque said that the Philippines prefers a “somehow legally binding” Code of Conduct as the “key to stability in the region.” But frustration is building in certain sectors of the government, particularly among the military’s top brass.
In contrast to the presidential palace’s statements, which have consistently tried to downplay or deny reports of China’s reclamation activities on Philippine-claimed land features, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has taken a more strident stance on the issue.
On January 8, Lorenzana announced that the Philippines will lodge a diplomatic protest if reports of Chinese reclamation activities on the Fiery Cross reef, which is also claimed by the Philippines, are verified.
“Our stand here is that we will register our protest through the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) because I know for a fact that the Chinese government said sometime ago that they are not going to militarize those reclaimed islands,” said Lorenza during a press briefing in Fort Magsaysay military base in Neuva Ecija.
“But if it is true that we can prove that they have been putting soldiers in there and even any weapons that would heighten their defensives there, that will be a violation of what they said,” he added.
The presidential palace, however, emphasized that filing a diplomatic complaint is “something that the Department of Foreign Affairs will have to address,” not the Department of Defense (DoD) or defense minister.
Yet, as in past, the Philippine defense establishment is openly prodding the government to take a tougher stance. Lorenzana has long been an advocate of measured engagement with China, welcoming dialogue with the powerhouse but from a position of strength and caution.
Throughout his tenure at the helm of the DoD, Lorenzana has consistently raised concerns over what he has viewed as suspicious Chinese activities in Philippine-claimed waters.
To strengthen the Philippines’ position, Lorenzana also announced that earlier plans for overhauling and upgrading the country’s facilities on Thitu Island in the Spratlys will push through early this year.
When asked about China’s opposition to the plan, the defense minister maintained that, “I don’t think they will protest,” since the Philippines’ “purpose there is peaceful.” He said the plan for revamping facilities on Thitu Island “will [certainly] push through.”
But much will also depend on what Philippine treaty ally America does in the coming months. From the US’ perspective, China poses a growing threat to freedom of navigation and overflight in one of the world’s most important sea-lanes.
According to US President Donald Trump’s newly-released National Security Strategy (NSS), China’s “efforts to build and militarize outposts in the South China Sea endanger the free flow of trade, threaten the sovereignty of other nations, and undermine regional stability.”
The strategic document also accused Beijing of “mount[ing] a rapid military modernization campaign designed to limit US access to the region and provide China a freer hand there” and “risks diminishing the sovereignty of many states in the Indo-Pacific.”
The problem, however, is that US is no longer widely seen as the preeminent power capable of and willing to undergird regional security and prosperity.
Regional states are anxiously watching whether the Trump administration will finally devise a coherent strategy for the South China Sea in its second year in office or remain distracted by other regional flash points and domestic skirmishes, leaving its allies and partners such as the Philippines at the mercy of China’s designs.
Since the attack of Marawi by American mercenaries (AKA ISIS fighters), the Filipino government fears another invasion by the same American mercenaries in case the Filipino government does not do the bidding of the USA. Philippines has lost its independence. It is now owned by USA.
This is a red herring. The reports on Fiery Cross has been proven wrong but its typical of such articles that they float straw man and proceed to base all further speculation and actions on a dubious source. This Defense Secretary is obviously schooled in US positions and is prepared to push the envelope. But like in all democratic countries, he will toe the line or get sacked just as in Trump govt.
The Philippine military “big brass” often has US education and good relations to the US military. No doubt there is tempting US “retirement packages” ready to be offered to Filipino generals, if the timing is right for a coup. President Duterte is very popular, both in the Philippines and seen as a great Asian leader unafraid to speak his mind to the US President and the Pope in Rome.
I think and hope, President Duterte will serve his entire term. Unfortunate there has been these US regime change plans, and the backstabbing from a few unpatriotic Senators. Despite the regime change plans and backstabbing Senators, President Duterte’s relentless work to solve the Philippines challenges is going full steam ahead.
the chinese are not going to militarize those reclaimed islands, untill usa harass them day and night with warships so china have no choice but the setup self defence AKA militarise those island. if usa but out from interfering in SCS . china would not force to waste a lot of resources to protect those island
Philippines will face a larger aggression from China, if they don’t resist China militarising the artificial island now! China will never accept the multilateral rules or code of conduct! Only way out is work with the like minded group of countries such as Vietnam, Japan & Australia and reverse the Chinese hegemonic ambitions in SCS.
I see CIA fingers all over this. As I said elsewhere, Duterte is dead meat for his being of an irritant on CIA’s behind… Someone is going to put some Prep-H on this guy and, it’s likely going to be someone from his own military apparatus, a coupe de tat, something I’m sure CIA is already hard at putting together…
Thiru Ravi, you Filipinos should challenge China with the breadth of territorial waters. Universally the territorial waters of every country is 12 nautical mile wide. If China’s claim were allowed to stand, then China’s territorial waters would be almost 1,000 NM wide. You ask the world community, not only the US alone, can any country be allowed to own such a wide swatch of the sea?
Wood Wu International Tribunal concluded that there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within the ‘nine-dash line’ and upheld Philippines right. Please keep yourself abreast with the world news! Chinas revisionist policies are going to be its downfall!
The Philippines has already seen China steal its territory, yet they are inviting them to survey Benham Rise. Where is the logic in that? France offered to do the job, and I think everyone can agree they are more trustworthy than China.Inviting the thief back to look at more of what you own is plain stupid.
China’s plan is to expel the US from the Philippines to complete its 2nd Island Ring plan. More ridiculous claims and demonstrations against the US in the Philippines will happen, all purporting to come from individuals or "the people", but all masterminded and in the case of politicians, paid for by Beijing. Its in the plan, your silly posts are to be expected. Same 5th column netowrk seen in Australia and the US and in the UK.
In what way wrong? You surely have seen the images and satallite photographs?
Duterte is massively popular inside the Phil. The Philippines will decide who they want to govern, but what they must not have is a China stooge who will turn the country into a vassal state of Beijing, like Laos and Cambodia. The people deserve better than that.
The UNCLOS ruling was made by the worlds best and formost maritime judges. None were American. One judge stepped down because his wife was Filipino. The world was watching. You could not possibly get a better legal panel on earth! Any idea that somehow the ruling is "discredited" shows the lack on knowledge displayed by the writer, robotically towing the official Chinese line. China did not participate because it knew it had no historical evidence to back the claim that could stand scrutiny in front of legal experts. Add, that the 9-dash was only thought up in the late 1940s by the Nationalists trying to claim anything from the Communiists, and in the 1930s, China publicaly told the world it had "no interest in anything south of Triton Island". That is Chinas problem.
I remember the first construction, when the Chinese issued a statement saying they were "fishmens shelters". Actually they were accomodation for workers to begin making the first island. China has lied from day one, and so cannot be trusted over anything. It is the bully on the Asian street corner, robbing people walking by if they have anything of use. The latest victim is little Bhutan, where China wants to steal a valley to give access to northern India. Why construct a road to nowhwere? Bhutan has already said no, yet China didnt take any notice and moved in. Typical actions from the regional bully.
Its a shame the Philippines does not stand up to China like Indonesia has done, sinking illegal fishing boats etc. Yet that hasnt stopped Chinese investment in the country. China will have some respect for that coutnry and stop sending boats there, unlike the Phil, where if feels as if it can do what it pleases because the Duterte thinks he is a friend.
I also think you are right, but nothing to do with the CIA. More to do with stepping on the toes of the ruling classes. Hurting their drug operations (China well involved with that too), stopping taking trips abroad at government expence and trying to stop some of the corruption. That last is always dangerous as many like it just the way it has always been. They will not take kindly to any politician trying to stop their revenue streams. Easy enough in the Phil to put a contract out on somebody they dont like, it happens regularly.
Wood Wu . The problem for Asian states is that their militaries were generally, nothing more than armed police or basic military in few numbers. The area has been peacefull for many of these states for a long time, so arms investments were never on the priority list. Now China has changed all that, threatening some of them, so they are all now buying arms as fast as their economies will allow. But it takes years of training to bring in new vessels and put them to good use. China has been building its military for years now and with its previous inward looking policy, nobody took much notice. Now Xi has changed all that, he has a large force at his disposal many Asian states have no hope of matching it. It will take 10 years at least for some of these countries to have a meaningful military. And that is all money that would be better spent on hospitals, roads and schools. But such is the threat, it is making them all change the priorites.
2017 satallite image of Feiry Cross missile facilities.
we all know usa dogs is well paid and is everywhere , those maggots
with with asia pivot china would not seize those island, without USA Freedom navigation those island will not be militarized, thaks to usa a lots
yeas the most lazy and sickman of asean, turning its women into GIs prostitutes. sad oppressed people that think they are the best when whiteman pat their backs
Whey USA didn’t join UNCLO?
John Tee PCA is a paid tribunal , not even a law court. soo funny LOL
saves it, pinoy will just bark, noo nned to answer usa mutts
Mark Niio loser
mean while go rape your women on your FUN bUS
where do poor lazy pinoy go money to pay france, don’t pay overprice item. its philippines hard earn money mostly from your wives and daughter serving GIs at bar and brothel across the country while you are paying card sipping beeer at home
Rfc Mys Nothing constructive to add to this thread? Oh yes, that is whey you are working at RFC Fast Food.
Rfc Mys Do you get a cheap thrill sending posts like this? Do it give you a stiffy to be so daring to talk like an idiot?
yes i agree
Perry Kamath i don’t think because of that
i think because of THE WEST is the one that makes thing always difficult to handle
they criticize SE and yet never give solution
Alex Wijaya yes, i agree with u