China’s “Go West” strategy was brought into sharp focus at a forum in Shanghai last weekend. Billed as the Belt and Road Initiative: Towards Greater Cooperation between China and the Middle East, it highlighted key aspects of Beijing’s wider plan.
The New Silk Roads, or the Belt and Road Initiative, involve six key economic corridors, connecting Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and Europe. One, in particular, extends through the Middle East to North Africa. This is where the Belt and Road meets MENA or the Middle East and North Africa.
Of course, Beijing’s massive economic project goes way beyond merely exporting China’s excess production capacity. That is part of the plan, along with building selected industrial bases in MENA countries by using technical and production expertise from the world’s second-largest economy.
Again, this is will connect western China to the eastern Mediterranean. It will mean developing a corridor through projects such as the Red Med railway. There are also plans to expand ports, such as Oman’s Duqm, as well as substantial investment in Turkey.
A look at the numbers tells a significant part of the story. In 2010, China-Arab trade was worth US$145 billion. By 2014, it had reached $250 billion and rising. China is now the largest exporter to assorted MENA nations, while MENA accounts for 40% of Beijing’s oil imports.
The next stage surrounding energy will be the implementation of a maze of LNG, or liquefied natural gas, pipelines, power grids, power plants and even green projects, sprouting up across the new Silk Road corridors and transit routes.
According to the Asian Development Bank, the myriad of Belt and Road infrastructure projects for the next 15 years could hit a staggering $26 trillion. Other less grandiose figures come in at $8 trillion during the next two decades.
The ongoing internationalization of the yuan will be key in the process as will the role of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
Naturally, there will be challenges. Belt and Road Initiative projects will have to create local jobs, navigate complex public and private partnerships along with intractable geopolitical wobbles.
Enseng Ho, a professor from the Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore, is one of an army of researchers studying how historical links will play an important role in this new configuration.
An excellent example is the city of Yiwu in Zhejiang province. This has become a mecca for merchant pilgrims from Syria or east Africa and has profited the region, according to the Zhejiang provincial government.
In a wider Middle East context, Beijing’s aim is to harness, discipline and profit from what can be considered an Industrialization 2.0 process. The aim is to help oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf states, diversify away from crude.
There is also reconstruction projections elsewhere, with China deeply involved in the commercial renaissance of post-war Syria.
As well as investing in its own future energy security, Beijing is keen to put together other long-term strategic investments. Remixing the centuries-old Chinese trade connections with the Islamic world fits into the Globalization 2.0 concept President Xi Jinping rolled out at last year’s World Economic Forum in the Swiss ski resort of Davos.
But then, Beijing’s strategy is to avoid a geopolitical collision in the Middle East. Its aim is to: Make Trade, Not War.
From the United States’ point of view, the National Security Strategy document highlighted how China and Russia are trying to shape a new geopolitical environment in the region, which contrasts sharply from Washington’s aims and interests.
It pointed out that while Russia is trying to advance its position as the leading political and military power broker, China is pushing ahead with a “win, win” economic policy. In 2016, that was spelt out in Beijing’s first Arab Policy paper, with its emphasis on bilateral trade cooperation, joint development projects and military exchanges.
Since geopolitical wobbles are never far below the surface in the Middle East, China has even suggested it would be willing to act as a mediator between intractable rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Indeed, diplomacy is a key card for Beijing, according to Zhao Tingyang, a noted philosopher, at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
In his 2006 paper, entitled Rethinking Empire from a Chinese Concept “All-Under-Heaven”, Zhao argued that the country show follow a principle of harmony based loosely on the Confucian notion of “all under heaven” or Tianxia in Mandarin.
Confucius, one would imagine, would be pleased by the Belt and Road Initiative. You could call it: “Make Trade, Not War All Under Heaven.”
Yeah, I think the Chinese are going to be in for a rude awakening when they try to collect payment on a lot of these projects.
"America seems to crave war"
The #1 root cause for this is the US Constitution:
1) Domestically, the US President, thus the US military is severely restricted/limited by checks and balances from Legislature and Judicial branches.
2) Outside USA, the US President has unfettered/unrestrict power in all domains of:
2a) Unlimited Budget/Spending: the US military budget is the next top 5 or 6 countries combined. This doesn’t even include the dark budget for at least 12 secret/spy agencies + countless NGO, Radio Free Asai, etc.
2b) Unrestrict laws: There are no laws the US President need to follow, except to make treaties and official declaration of war with Congress approval. But these can be easily bypass: he can send US military and setup bases anywhere without Congress approval.
3b) No consequences: the US military setups up their own courts outside the country.
The omission from the US Constitution is purporseful as George Washington was severely hampered by the laws of the First Cnstitution: Article of Confederation. The Anti-Federalist, e.g. Samual Adams, etc, managed to restrict the unlimited power with Amendments, aka Bill of Rights. But these only affect domestic issues not foreign. BTW Washington first use of the US military after President was put down American citizens who refused to pay taxes which he wouldn’t be able to do so before.
Very ,very noble cause.middle east needs industrialization.IT HAS MONEY AND PEOPLE.
unfortunately governing class is totally in the hands of Western Colonial Powers.
They are still using the area to exploit it riches by WARS AND DECEITS.IT WILL TOUGH GOING FOR CHINESE TO BROKTHE MOLD.ALTHOUGH ARABS BELIEVE IN ALLAH BUT THEIR GODS LIVE IN WASHINGTON AND LONDON.
Maybe the nations involved in Silk Road development can get behind this project:
http://www.daviddarling.info/encyclopedia/A/Aral_Sea_refill.html
Cooperation, infrastructure development, connectivity… Washington won’t stand for such threats.
Luca Taramelli
Only temporarily. In the end Truth doeth triumph.
Socrates, Jesus, Mohammed, all triumphed on the average after 1-2 millennium.
Dear Syed Abbas, some time ago I read a book describing the transition struggle between Abbasids and Umayyads, and I found a proverb whose meaning seems lost today: " Those practicing logic end up in heresy "
Pepe….dear dear man…you are always right….like Carlucci….more flies caught by honey, more control by trade….once the tale of TIMBUKTU.
It is the difference between a symbiotic relationship and a parasitic one. The parasite eventually destroys its host – or the host breaks free. Either way, it’s not sustainable.
Have a look here folks:
灯塔国的黄昏 http://www.zdaox.com/p/459.html
Francis Chow I guess you need to look into the ideological genes of the US nation to understand why.
Pepe: I have followed your work for several years now, even back to the days when my job included "tracking" events with China. As such, the whole concept of the new Silk Road is fasinating. What is even more interesting is how the whole concept seems to be driven by the understanding by the Chinese government that keeping 1.5 BILLION citisens "happy" is going to take a hurculean effort.. Effort that will not rule out conflict if needed.
So was the longest Empire, the Kaliphate 632-1923. It divided the world into us and them trading blocks, and imposed Tariffs (Arabic word of Kaliphate origin).
China’s BRI to recreate the Silk Road is the best news the world has seen in 1,400 years when the 632 AD Kaliphate killed the old one.
While 2,400 years ago Socrates was felled by Athenian Demos (5% moneyed males), 1000 years later Mohammed routed his own Demos – big Business Umayyads, bankers banu Abbas, Tribe of Judah, all trade monopolists to found the secular Republic of Medina with to free trade.
But after Mohammed the Kaliphate over-turned all his Revolutions’s progressive gains – univarsalism to division, justice to law, peace to war, emancipation of women to enslavement, free trade to Tariffs (Arabic word).
The Kaliphate – a neocon enterprise of Sunni muscle and Judah money, for gore, glory, conquest, and colonialism, was worst calamity to befell the globe – for Muslims, Asia, Europe alike. Sitting smack in middle of East-West Silk Road, the Kaliphate restricted trade.
Crusades to free trade failed. 100 Famines in Europe around 1300AD starving Christians to half its population. After 1453 takeover of Constantinople Sunnis blocked trade altogether. Finally, Europeans managed to expel Sunnis and Jews from spain, and were now free to find new routes to Asia, and new lands too.
Today, the stars are lining in favour of world peace. Middle East, the key to unification of Asia, Europe, and Africa, is being ethinically cleansed of anti-trade Kaliphate lovers. The rising free trader Shia Crescent will guarantee the the trade passages are safe and secure.
Peace lovers of the world, Rejoice.
I read an interesting book once that basically said there are two kinds of Empires: empires of assimilation and empires of tribute. An empire of assimilation grows and and assimilates into itself. What is taken in becomes part of the whole. The Chinese Empire and the Inca Empire were basically assimilative. So was the Roman. The other kind of empire is the tribute empire. It conquers and demands tribute. Tge conquered territories becomes zones of exploitation and never become integrated fully as a part of the whole. The Aztec empire, British empire and American empire are tribute empires. Territories are conquered and made into vassal states, or zones of exploitation. Eventually the exploited resent the arrangement and seek modification of tge relationship.
But why is this so ? And can the USA remake itself into a peaceful empire through robotics and other technologies?
problem is usa and its dog will not eat
Yes Pepe. A welcome relief from the usual spin that OBOR is a nefarious plot by Beijing. It certainly is quite a spectacle to watch as China leads global development for the rest of the century, while the West stumbles down a path of a Green New Dark Ages. Deindustrialization and depopulation are the order of the day in the West. Still and all the authoritarian strain in the Chinese political order is dismaying and ultimately, may undermine a bold vision for the future.
Let’s hope that can be changed over time.
The Middle Kingdom continues to march forward. All of the China "HATERS" on Bloomberg and CNBC———–just keep on doubting———-this is the Chinese Century!!
Make trade is what the CCP China regime is good at.
Keep it going but let the currency rise, this will help the hard working people of China, through whom the rest of the world has benefitted through cheap consumer goods.
Forget nuclear, forget hating the USA, forget trying to intimidate small neighbours.
Be happy and mind your business and it will mind you.