Michael Elleman, a US missile expert, has upgraded his assessment of a long-range missile fired by North Korea on Tuesday, saying that it is larger than first believed and may be capable of carrying decoys and other counter measures to thwart US missile defenses. The weapon could also be combat-ready as early as 2018, according to the analyst.
Elleman wrote in a Thursday post for 38 North, a website that covers North Korean affairs, that the Hwasong-15 launched on November 29 “could deliver a moderately-sized nuclear weapon to any city on the US mainland”, and is not a modified version of the earlier Hwasong-14 rocket. The analyst also believes the missile boasts a new steering mechanism that is more efficient and simpler than the methods used in North Korea’s other missiles.
Elleman, however, reiterated his previous view that further flight tests are needed to validate the Hwasong-15’s performance and confirm its ability to withstand the stresses of atmospheric re-entry.
“Additional flight tests should be performed to determine the missile’s reliability, establish its accuracy and verify the re-entry protection system,” Elleman wrote. But he added: “If low confidence in the missile’s reliability is acceptable, two or three test firings over the next four to six months may be all that is required before Kim Jong-un declares the Hwasong-15 combat ready.”
MIRV capable?
Others say that Pyongyang’s latest rocket could carry multiple warheads or MIRVs.
“I’m particularly troubled by the excess capability in this missile. It can go much further than it needs to. That suggests that it is designed to accommodate even heavier payloads than whatever it was tested with. The nosecone is huge,” Joshua Pollack, editor of the The Nonproliferation Review and a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, told Newsweek.
“These two observations suggest that they may already be thinking ahead to putting multiple warheads on a single missile,” Pollack added.
A South Korean missile expert reportedly gave a similar assessment. “North Korea seems to have designed the protection cover of the reentry vehicle in consideration of a possible multiple warhead system,” said Chang Young-keun, a missile expert at Korea Aerospace University in Goyang, Gyeonggi Province, told the country’s Yonhap news agency.
Killing our late beloved king Gadafi was easy and cheaper now North Korea is out with power and undesirable strength . If Trump is a real man, then he go to war with rocket man to prove his bravey and loyalty to people of America. This world does not and will never be rulled by the so called super powers. I hope African nations have learn a great deal of sence from death of the greatest late king. Arabs are hypocrites and Allah will punish them for their deeds. I pray that Allah will kill the hypocrites in Saudi, Ameen.
It will be prudent for USA to sit down, hold peace talks amd perhaps fulfill its obligations under the Agreed Framework signed on October 21, 1994 by U.S. Ambassador Robert Gallucci and DPRK Vice-minister Kang Sok-ju
Summary: Freeze of North Korean nuclear program, leading to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and initial Peace agreement between the United States and North Korea.
The main provisions of the agreement[were:
DPRK’s graphite-moderated 5MWe nuclear reactor, and the 50 MWe and 200 MWe reactors under construction, which could easily produce weapons grade plutonium, would be replaced with two 1000MW light water reactors (LWR) power plants by a target date of 2003.
Oil for heating and electricity production would be provided while DPRK’s reactors were shut down and construction halted, until completion of the first LWR power unit. The amount of oil was 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil per year.
The two sides would move toward full normalization of political and economic relations.
The U.S. would provide formal peace and national security assurances to the DPRK, against the threat or use of nuclear weapons by the U.S.
The DPRK would take steps to implement the 1992 Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula between South and North Korea.
The DPRK would remain a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
IAEA ad hoc and routine inspections would resume for facilities not subject to the freeze.
Existing spent nuclear fuel stocks would be stored and ultimately disposed of without reprocessing in the DPRK.
Before delivery of key LWR nuclear components, the DPRK would come into full compliance with its safeguards agreement with the IAEA.