A senior Taiwanese minister has declared that China would “pay a very very high price” if it invaded Taiwan. Chang Hsiao-Yueh, Taiwan’s mainland affairs minister, also called on the United States not to use the self-governed island as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China.
The comments come amid a flare-up in tensions over the possibility of the US restarting naval visits to ports in Taiwan. Chinese diplomat Li Kexin recently warned that the day American naval vessels arrive at the island’s southern port city of Kaohsiung would be the day that China’s People’s Liberation Army unifies Taiwan with military force.
Chang, however, urged Beijing to favor regional peace and stability over assertive behavior.
“I think that we have enough defense to safeguard Taiwan,” she said during a briefing for visiting foreign journalists in Taipei.
“If they invade Taiwan militarily they will pay a very very high price. And so far I believe that’s the last resort if all the other means [of unification] are failed then finally they will do that. But at this moment, because this government exercises extreme caution not to do anything that would be considered provocative, we do not think that they will do anything like that at this time.”
China has been expanding and modernizing its military in recent years, and experts have argued that Taiwan no longer has the technological edge. Beijing regards Taiwan as a wayward province that one day will return to its control. China’s president, Xi Jinping, used a speech to the 19th party congress in October to warn that Beijing had the capability “to defeat any form of Taiwan independence secession plot.”
“We will never allow any person, any organization, or any political party to split any part of the Chinese territory from China at any time or in any form,” Xi said then.
“There’s a carrot and stick policy towards Taiwan. That’s what we expect in the next five years,” Chang said
Commenting on the outlook for cross-Taiwan Strait relations after the party congress, Chang said she expected Beijing to continue to carry out military exercises to show its muscle and to pursue further efforts to isolate Taiwan in the international diplomatic arena. However, she also noted that the congress report did not talk about the use of force against Taiwan, nor did it set out a timetable for unification. Economic and cultural exchanges were also mentioned.
“It’s a mixed-use strategy; there’s a carrot and stick policy towards Taiwan. That’s what we expect in the next five years,” Chang said during the briefing held on 5 December.
Donald Trump broke with established protocol by accepting a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, during the presidential transition period in late 2016. Around that time, the US president-election also sought to invoke the “One China” policy as a potential bargaining chip to secure other concessions from Beijing. Since the 1970s, the US has acknowledged that Chinese people on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is one China and Taiwan is a part of China.
Trump said he did not understand why the US must be bound by the One China policy “unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade.” After his inauguration, however, the president settled back into established US protocols and agreed to Xi’s request to honor the One China policy.
‘Don’t discuss Taiwan with Xi’
Chang confirmed Taipei had lobbied the US ahead of Trump’s first official visit to Beijing last month not to raise the issue of Taiwan in talks with Xi.
“Basically we keep reminding them that Taiwan should not be used as a chip,” she said. The minister added that any concerns have been allayed: “From our calculation and from our analysis, we don’t think that the United States will use Taiwan as a bargaining chip when the US talks to China about economic and trade issues and North Korea issues.”
This week, the Trump administration reaffirmed the delicate balancing act between maintaining relations with China while supplying arms to Taiwan. “We will maintain our strong ties with Taiwan in accordance with our ‘One China’ policy, including our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide for Taiwan’s legitimate defense needs and deter coercion,” the newly released US national security strategy said.
US Navy to visit Taiwanese port?
But Congress’ recent decision to call on the president to consider allowing naval visits to Taiwanese ports sparked protests from China. The Taiwan-related provisions in the National Defense Authorization Act, which are non-binding, could “jeopardize the larger interests of China-US cooperation and cross-straits peace and stability,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said at a regular press briefing.
Li, a senior diplomat in China’s embassy in the US, went further in his language. He was reported as warning US officials that any port visits would trigger a Chinese move to unify Taiwan with force.
Beijing has long signaled its resolute opposition to such visits, said Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC.
“I highly doubt that the US Navy will make a port call to Taiwan,” she said in an email.
“The risks to Taiwan outweigh the benefits, in my view. There are many other ways that the US can demonstrate a commitment to Taiwan’s security should it choose to do so. China’s warning hasn’t been repeated by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman or anyone else. It may not be authoritative.”
Euan Graham, director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute in Australia, said he saw Li’s comment as “bluster” aimed at ensuring pushback from those who were more invested in US-China relations than US-Taiwan relations.
China has moved to strengthen its military capability in the past few years, including by buying the S-400 surface-to-air missile system from Russia.
Taiwan ‘can’t really compete’ with China
“In all of the key metrics I think Taiwan has clearly lost its competitive edge in military terms and the balance strongly favors China,” Graham said in a phone interview.
“Taiwan has historically relied on having a technical edge over China, partly because of its dependence on arms imports from the United States. That’s now totally reversed. So I think the sense in which Taiwan can rely on a conventional deterrent is much more questionable.
“I was in Taiwan six weeks ago and the sense I picked up there, even from serving or retired senior military was a recognition that Taiwan couldn’t really compete with China on a strictly symmetrical basis,” Graham said. The implication was that Taiwan needed to think differently about how it secured its defense and should also build up its own infrastructure and soft power “in ways that would make it more resilient across the board.”
Disclosure: The journalist participated in an international press tour of Taiwan as a guest of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
If n korea can have nukes …….?Taiwan needed to think differently about how it secured its defense….
If Taiwan weren’t a chip to the Americans, then what? A chop?
Taiwan has probably been nuclear for at least 3 years.
History repeats itself. No body thought China would fight in Korea. They were too weak militarily and would suffer greatly. That didnt stop them. If Taiwan thinks heavy casualties would be a deterrent, they must think again. That is not an issue at all to China.
KS Chin point makes the case for the need for nukes; sufficient nuclear weapons would take loses. not just lives lost but the inability to have a modern economy, so high hat China losevthe war even if they won the battle. If Einstein was correct about his prediction about the weapons used to fight WW 4, China’s ability to fight after this would be so greatly reduced that China, as the world knows it, would be no more.
Stephen Wieprecht By your reasoning, maybe Cuba, Venezuela and many other countries being bullied by the US should go nuke as well, to deter the threat of military action by the US seeking regime change.
China should announce a ‘One United States’ policy which states that there is only one United States but it is unresolved wether the United States is governed by Washington D.C. or the Confederacy. Then China should provide weapons to the Southern States which sought to break away from the Uniion so that they are able to defend themselves if Washington D.C. tries to assert itself militarily.
Koh Mun Hoong If they could, like n korea – I am sure they would. Actually, the reasoning also would apply to S Korea, Japan, Phillipines, Vietnam, ….. You are correct – if a smaller nation does not want to be bullied by a larger nation …….. you have made the case for anyone looking at tis from the Tawainese point of view.
Stephen Wieprecht I think they all can build the bomb.That is,including Iran and Syria. Same as Islamic State with the briefcase variety. As far as they are concerned,they are equally bullied.
Stephen Wieprecht a white non-college education claiming U of M SL. That is laughable with his logic.
It would be the people of Taiwan who would pay the highest price if it comes to war, but that doesn’t seem to factor in the empty boastings of this official.
Joe Wrong (spelling corrected) laughably, it is not an indictable offense….you must be a communist sympathizer or just a paid troll….either way, you WRONG WONG!
Stephen Wieprecht Now if US is confident that they can neutralise North Korea’s nukes, you dont think China wont think the same for Taiwan? Unlike North Korea however, China has many levers and intelligence over Taiwan and if a move towards nuclear weapons is detected, you can bet there will be some countermoves. Dont forget that a significant (if minority) Taiwanese/KMT are still thinking unification of China.
However heavy a price it may be that the taiwanese minister thinks China will pay, Taiwan’s will surely be much much bigger. And China will see this a BIG prize, not price. Okay.
Koh Mun Hoong I agree.
At the first sign of reunification, The DPP lead by TYW will be on flights to the US with their green card in hand. So, there will be no opposition and the military will hand over all their still operational F16’s.
China should respect Taiwanese people. Invasion & fighting is not the trend for educated people. Though China is posted as democratic nation but their operation is made by PLA which is a communist lead in ideology in ruling terms by the point of a gun. Xi is not the same with deng ciao Peng who is a peace loving communist. Xi is showing capitalism in disguise armed with communist war machines at the back.
Terrible thing to have a democracy on your doorstep! Obvious that Taiwan wants cordial relations- not simply to be assimilated.
Since both China and Taiwan are capitalist, I was wondering what is the difference? Hong Kong was given-up peacefully by UK, so why US is refusing to give-up Taiwan. But at the same time China is also not helping reunification of north and south Korea. I suppose these all these take time as monkeys evolve to become humans.
Well I don’t see people falling over themselves to move to autocratic states- nor do I see authoritarian nations make any contribution to solutions of poverty, health or aid. Don’t confuse the lunacy of Trump with the capacity of liberal states to make a contribution. Next time you fly, settle financial affairs, have a dealing that requires international law of the sea, use a satellite….it wasn’t your autocratic states that raised the bar. It might not be perfect…. it’s better than living on your knees- and it can’t be that bad- everyone wants to move to the west/or emulate the west. Good luck.
china shuld not afraid of taiwan or american as nobody is match against china army and arsenal so invade immd. taiwan and capture the island and kill all those nationalist so that a strong signal will go to bastard american and japanes and they wont dare to go against china, how long taiwan a tiny so called nation will challenge giant dragon? american has been taught a good lesson in vietnam and in korea in late 1950 and american economy has gone to dog, they are incompetent to fight overseas area so it is right time since russia is also backing china, right time to kill taiwanese and include in your heavenly kingdom ( tian mein ) this will also freighten india who is backing bhutan and tibet so that china can easily annex these countries including aksai china
"Chinese diplomat Li Kexin recently warned that the day American naval vessels arrive at the island’s southern port city of Kaohsiung would be the day that China’s People’s Liberation Army unifies Taiwan with military force."
That’s just empty posturing, I wish that US calls the bluff – I’m currently reading the "Gathering storm" by Churchill which is an extended warning about the calamitous consequences the world faced due to Britain and France not calling Hitler’s bluff. Eerie parallels.
If war flared up between Taiwan and China, will America step in to defend Taiwan ? If so how far will America go if it is is a protracted war lasting more than a few years? The answer is in the Vietnam War. By then Taiwan will have suffered considerable damage when America repeats the Vietnam War stance .
No one gives a ????What 張小????thinks,not even her own govt.her agency is a joke,no use at all;she must be trying to at least get noticed.i’m sure the PLA will have scrapped any invasion plans after this stern warning from a lame duck official who knows nothing of military affairs.
Andrew Salazar correct, there is a saying you cannot force a woman to say I love you. Same as China why issist Taiwanese to like them, they already live in peace in Taiwan. Donot rape Taiwan people just because of military power superiority. Feel the heart of Taiwanese that they donot like China even if they implement one China policy. It is tantamount to divorce in a relationship. Living in a point of a gun is a big NO to civilized world.
China should learn from crimea incident and use it military might.
This Taiwanese woman still doesn’t knows about warfare and strategies come and talks big. I think she should be a housewife and dont talk rublish
Cerys Davis good let everybody have nuclear bombs. That would be fun. None can threaten each other, not even Uncle Sam.
Sure enough, taiwan has enough capability to safeguard itself for a day or two
kinda like russia is already doing behind the scene?
Charles Cheng is also a pig using English name.
Koh Jek Siew Why? India is not trying to forcibly invade and take over sovereign nations like China is.
Not really. China better not dare mess with the US who will come to Taiwan’s assistance. Make no mistake. This is a redline for America.
You sound like a Commie troll.
@Suki Venkat
First, Taiwan is not US’s to give.
Second, the Taiwanese people dont want to be part of China. Sort of how Pakistan would never want to be part of India or Canada would never want to be part of USA.
Third, China is ruled by an iron dictatorship that suffocates all free speech which is hated by its own citizens. If there were free and fair elections, I doubt the CCP would win any seats. Why on earth would Taiwanese, citizens of a free democracy want to be a part of a corrupt nation like China? Answer. They dont, which is why they voted in a Taiwanese nationalist government.
@Juzer Abbas Pedhiwala F*ing troll, crawl back under that rock.
Koh Jek Siew Not in the 21st century my friend. Chinese emperors will realize there are red lines, and the Taiwan Strait is one of them.
I cant wait for China to try and pull a Pearl Harbor stunt on Guam. Please do it. And see what happens.
Rick Barrington University of Washington? What are you…janitor?
Alan Harold Dean Formosa colonised by Holland, Japan and others and an independant country? So after WW2 Taiwan was terra nullius or the victors return it to China ( at that time the Republic of China ). If it is terra nullius there is nobody to revert to and, Uncle Sam would have kept it as part of the USA. The latter implied that Taiwan is a part of China ( whatever the type of government ). So Taiwan is no way an independent country. It is only the rogue superpower who keep insisting they have extra-territorial rights to interfere in Taiwan affairs, and obstruct the unification of the Chinese nation.
Rick Barrington your comment is so confusing, i cant understand what exactly you wish to say. is it a bad comment or taunting remark?
dont even think of nuke capabilities against giant dragon or you will be soon decimated and if india wishes to use its arsenal, they will be turned into ashes and thus india stop medelling in bhutan or tibet as china has gained their ming dynasty position same as before opium war lodged by bastard british with the help of india, against china
What is the use of taiwan for US if the latter cant use the former as leverage against China? Trump just don’t have the diplomatic finesse to hide it.
I believe that Taiwan has nuclear capabilities to defend herself in case China decide to invade the Island, the difference is that Taiwan is not sounding trumpet that they have developed a nuclear weapon just like the north Korea and for the fact that China is behind the north Korea nuclear development directly or indirectly, China should not under estimate the Taiwanese
Tibet……Taiwan…….Hong Kong……..Even north of Laos now…..China Still Thinking about extension…..
KS Chin. you maybe right about the fact that big military loss in case of china taiwan war is not an issue but then there are other concern to consider like the differences with japan and the possible loss of disputed teritory with india