Morbid curiosity draw attention to the real-life Game of Thrones now playing out in Saudi Arabia, but the stories of intrigue among the Bedouin clans who control the kingdom are less interesting than the changes in the regional chessboard. Some of the facts are known, while others only can be inferred. The ascent of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman – with the assistance of the United States and the approval of China – occurs in the context of an effort to restore the regional balance of power, following 15 years of instability due to America’s sponsorship of Shi’ite rule in Iraq.
Saddam Hussein’s Sunni government balanced Shi’ite Iran. When the George W. Bush administration overthrew him and imposed majority, that is, sectarian Shi’ite rule in Iraq, the disenfranchised Sunni minority supported non-state actors, namely al-Qaeda and its offshoot ISIS. The regional power balance shifted drastically in favor of Iran, and the Obama administration’s jerry-rigged nuclear deal with the Iran gave it additional power.
The Petraeus “surge” briefly interrupted the Sunni insurgency by putting large numbers of Sunni fighters on the American payroll, but only prepared a more ferocious insurgency in the future, as I warned in 2010. The Sunni powers in the region, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, both funded Sunni terrorists to counter Iran’s enhanced influence in the region. Assured of hegemony in Iraq, Iran intervened in Syria with its own Revolutionary Guards and thousands of Shi’ite mercenaries from Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The Sunni insurgency metastasized into ISIS and became a grave threat to stability in and outside the region. Thousands of foreign terrorists from Russia’s Caucasus and China’s Uyghur-majority Xinxiang province fought for ISIS in Syria and elsewhere and returned home to wreak havoc. Nine-tenths of Russia’s large Muslim population and virtually all of China’s are Sunni. Moscow and Beijing view their radicalization as a grave threat. Russia’s intervention in Syria and its alliance-of-convenience with Iran had several motives, but an important one was fear of reflow of ISIS-trained terrorists to Russia.
Russia, to be sure, wants to restore its status as a world power; the Saudi royal family supports an expansionist brand of Salafist Islam; the Turks imagine themselves the founders of a new caliphate; and Iran wants to establish Shi’ite hegemony. All of these attitudes are relevant, to be sure, but America’s willful destruction of the Sunni-Shi’ite balance of power in the region drew all of these players into a permanent regional war. Whatever the ambitions and illusions of regional players, America’s strategic bumbling in Iraq compelled them to act as they did out of raison d’etat.
The Trump administration now has the sorry task of repairing the mess left by George W. Bush and Barack Obama.
After tipping the balance of power towards the Shi’ites, the United States now wants to restore the balance of power by reinforcing Saudi Arabia. So do Moscow and Beijing. If Prince Mohammad bin Salman didn’t exist, Washington would have to invent him. Saudi backing for “non-state actors,” namely terrorists, came in response to the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the subsequent Sunni insurgencies in Iraq and Syria, but the world’s sufferance for such support had reached a limit. Just as important, the kingdom would run out of money without a drastic reform. As I wrote two years ago, the kingdom’s vast subsidies for an idle population would drain the its treasury within five years. The number of pigs at the trough had to be reduced to keep the kingdom solvent, and that was a primary motivation for the culling of the royals.
His seizure of power earlier this month began by freezing the accounts of prospective adversaries. On Oct. 26, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced the formation of a Terrorist Financing Targeting Center in Riyadh. That is an extension of the Treasury’s 700-person Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Department. The Treasury office has a close relationship with CIA. Its Undersecretary during the second Obama Administration, David S. Cohen, moved from Treasury to become Deputy Director of CIA. People familiar with the Treasury operation report that the US Treasury provided the Crown Prince with “technical assistance” in his efforts to seize royal family funds, namely the location of all their accounts. The kingdom is now in negotiations with various royals as well as their bankers over these accounts, reportedly offering some of the princes now imprisoned in Riyadh’s Ritz Carlton Hotel their freedom in return for a large part of their fortunes. It has also asked banks to turn over accounts to the kingdom. That is a delicate negotiation, because the banks do not want to frighten away high net worth clients by making it easy for the Saudi authorities to expropriate funds.
Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has been covering his flanks carefully, presumably with “technical assistance” from Washington and elsewhere.
First, as Kunwar Khuldune Shahid reported in Asia Times Nov. 16, deep ties with Pakistan’s military helped the takeover. A senior Pakistan officer said, “Even if the Pakistani troops aren’t physically involved in an attack on Iran – or in Yemen, Qatar or Lebanon – the fact that we are bolstering Saudi defense domestically naturally makes us an integral part of their camp.” Pakistani pilots fly the best of Saudi Arabia’s nearly 300 modern military aircraft, and Pakistan mercenaries serve in key branches of the Saudi armed forces.
Second, Riyadh took pre-emptive action against the Muslim Brotherhood, the only entity within the kingdom capable of overthrowing the monarchy. Saudi Arabia blockaded Qatar, whose royal family backs the Brotherhood. The week before MbS seized power, moreover, Turkish financial markets went into a tailspin and the Turkish currency fell to all-time lows vs. the US dollar. I have no evidence that the Saudis engineered this; the fall of the Turkish lira is attributed to a diplomatic fight with the United States over federal prosecution of a Turkish-Iranian money launderer with close ties to the Erdogan regime, against the vociferous protests of Ankara. Gulf State banks finance a large part of Turkey’s current account deficit through the interbank market, and it is a reasonable conjecture that they pulled Turkey’s chain in late October.
Third, King Salman as well as the Crown Prince went to Moscow in late September and bought Russia’s top-of-the-line S-400 air defense system. As I wrote on Oct. 16, Russia evidently wants to maintain a regional balance of power. The S-400 is a far more powerful system than the S-300 system that Moscow sold to Iran, capable of acquiring nearly 100 targets at ranges of several hundred kilometers. The question is what Moscow would have asked in return, and my conjecture is that the issue had to do with Saudi financing of Sunni terrorists.
Fourth, as M.K. Bhadrakumar wrote in Asia Times Nov. 18, Saudi Arabia went out of its way to reaffirm its friendship with China. China’s commentary “specifically praised the Saudi leadership on two counts. First, it upheld the authenticity of MbS’ desire to shift toward moderate Islam – ‘Saudi wants to be less bound by religion… Although Saudi strengthens its soft power by exporting Wahhabism, it leads to the spread of extremism, seriously damaging Saudi’s international image. Hence Riyadh wants to change’,” Bhadrakumar observed.
Fifth, MbS has opened relations with Israel. For Saudi Salafists, this is not as odd as it seems. As Burnahettin Duran wrote Nov. 19 in Turkey’s Daily Sabah, “MbS laid the groundwork for Riyadh’s cooperation with Israel, which was recently endorsed by the Saudi grand mufti, who said that it was not permissible to fight against Israel, identified Hamas as a terrorist organization and issued a fatwa to declare that cooperating with the Israeli military against Hamas was permissible. To be clear, it should not come as a huge surprise to anybody that Salafism, an apolitical movement that promotes obedience to rulers under any circumstances, would endorse fighting with Israel. The same people could, with equal ease, legitimize a type of moderate Islam flavored secular Arab nationalism.”
Israel, to be sure, will not risk its own people to do Saudi Arabia’s dirty work, but the skill and experience of the Jewish state could help the kingdom enormously in the event of war with Iran. That is very unlikely. Iran has no air force, and its Russian air defense cannot defend soft targets such as electric generating plants. With a vast arsenal of highly accurate Chinese-built medium-range missiles and a very large air force, Saudi Arabia could destroy the Iranian economy in a few days of war.
Despite these careful preparations, it is by no means assured that MbS will succeed. The humiliated clans of the royal family might conspire to overthrow him. They have the choice of luxurious retirement in Marbella or London with a portion of their billions, or a civil war that might result in the extermination of their families. As long as MbS retains the support of the Pakistanis in the royal air force, I do not think an insurgency can succeed. MbS appears to have the backing of Washington, Beijing, Moscow and Jerusalem, as well as Islamabad, and that is a strong argument for his success.
China and Russia will try to persuade Iran to abandon its grandiose plans to repopulate parts of Syria with Shi’ite settlers, and concentrate on restoring its property through participation in the One Belt, One Road infrastructure project. Whether Iran will agree to do so is unclear, but the Chinese carrot is balanced by the Saudi (and Israeli) stick. If Iran attempts to emplace a permanent military presence in Syria it will have to fight Israel, and I do not think Iran wants to take that risk just now.
In the best case, a new balance of power will emerge in the Middle East, freezing out the Sunni non-state actors as well as Iran’s marauding Revolutionary Guard Corps, and allowing the countries of the region to attend to their economic future.
Tragically, it wouldn’t take much for Russia to react to the new developments in the region. A MBS-Bibi-Trump alliance to counter Iran will ensure Putin ups the heat, elsewhere, to stake out an edge.
Turkey, with the second largest number of NATO troops and a site hosting US-NATO nukes has been severely weakened, post coup, playing into Russia’s hand. A rather unfortunate and severe failure of imagination on part of NATO countries.
A weakened Anakra is bad for both Tel Aviv, and Riyadh, except, they both fail to realize it, given their short term interests. Time will tell, whether MBS and Bibi are doing the right thing, or opening up the region to a future Russian led ‘Blitzkrieg’ of all American and NATO allies, who are busy squabling and undermining one another.
SAD!
China has a non interference policy and is NOT involved in this event.
It is unlikely that USA was not aware of this coup. Leading articles for the past month and this article is a CIA plot to create doubts in Iran and hostility towards Russia and China. It is best to observe events for a year or two and pass judgement much later.
ok..fair article david..but i do acknowledge that it was not turkeys interest to support ISIS,they were formed under the watch of the western powers and certainly they were many sunnis there,but so were there many kurds who were hoping to take a chance in the destabilisation,i argued before that the kurds are chancers,they took the sides of the west and now under iranian influence they seem to be the second armour of the iranians..why because the PKK are allawite..
and yes it was a folly to allow the shites to take charge of the mideast after saddam..however the saudis need to sort out libya,and syria as quick as possible if MBS is to succed then the next step would be for the israelis to reach out to the sunni world..
NO ALIBABAS AND ALLAHUDDINS TO ENTER INDIAN FOOD INDUSTRIES
The keynote is moderate Islam in the Middle East, whether it be Sunni or Shite. This applies equally to all the other God religions in this world, whether it be Christianity or Judaism or even Hinduism with its pantheon of gods. It should also apply to all the atheist and agnostic and Nature spirit worship or yoga meditation spirituality nations of the world like China etc. all should be moderate and unassuming and not into internal conflicts of other nations. Do not judge or play God. When nations fight over who is the right God or right prophet or right successor to a prophet it has nothing to do with other religions, if matters are confined within their respective religious borders.
But since this is about the Middle East, let us hope this readjustment called rebalancing of sorts to bring stability will bring about some semblance of peace after all the wars, terrorism and violence in recent years.
And the U.S. and Russia and even China, (though I doubt the latter’s involvement as claimed in this article, as it has a policy of non-interference or engagement other than for trade and commerce and civil relations regardless of the nature and type of regime or ideology. China would trade with both parties at war anywhere in the world.) should keep a respectful distance. None should choose Sunni or Shite. I repeat – it is an internal religious issue and conflict. If any of these three super powers were Muslim then I can understand. Otherwise maintain a neutral stance. Take no sides. Stay equanimous and neutral. These Muslims are grown up adults. They have brains and are not morons. Therefore no superpower should meddle unless the warring Muslim parties take their warfare into 3rd party non-Muslim countries through proxy wars. When it comes to intra-Islamic conflicts let the faithful fight it all out for themselves, fend for themselves, the way they choose, through dialogue or weapons, sonlong as they just keep it to themselves. The West did not intervene in Cambodia or in many of the Black African conflicts, so we need to ask why the West were and are interested in triggering regime change in Libya, Egypt and the Middle East in the first place? They cannot even claim that like it was in Vietnam or South Korea or Indonesia that there was a Communist threat. The Muslims by definition are not Communists!
Let the Muslims sort out their Islamic problem. Do you think conversely the Muslims would interfere if the Catholics and the Protestants were to go about killing each other aroun dthe world? I do not think so.
Not that long time ago, the author as well as the rest of neocon universe, were all over the place, lambasting the "arrogant", "impetuous" and "rash" new upstart, Crown Prince MbS. Quite a different tune now.
I would suggest a bit more focus on reality, and less on geopolitics. Reality is, Saudi Arabia made a decision to make a major change. The decison to oust MbN was based on a consensus, the same body that always appoints new Crown Prince. And the details of the future decisions are ironed out as well.
The key reason for the major change is the damage Saudi Arabia sustained in the decades that it followed unquestioningly US policy. And that means financing, arming and coordinating the armies of religious fanatics, the cults that follow Wahhabi teaching, but have appropriated the right to themselves to condemn other Moslems as apostates, Takfiri, and have thus the right to kill them. This army of fanatical cults was, of course, lead by experienced soldiers, and provided telecom, vehicles, gas, food and water — all the armies of mercenaries, destitutes, angry, deluded, rebelious or just lost — needed.
As the project failed in Iraq and Syria — and in spite of their remnants still trying to show off their venom, they are surrounded and in pockets without hope of reversing their position. No matter how much Bibi wants to have them succeed, it is over. Saudi Arabia suffered major damage to its finances and more importantly, its reputation. It now needs to deal with the power of Wahhabi estalishment, as without this change, it cannot succeed in reforming it domestic and foreign policy.
Saudi fiasco in Qatar was the sign of the former Crown Prince arrogance and the belief that US would back him up. Without means to enforce all its threats, Saudi Arabia, that until recently picked on, and humiliated Egypt, is now grateful for its interference and saving the face of foolish Kingdom.
Kingdom needs the money, needs reliable customer with the prospect for higher energy demand in the future. And it needs to insure that the loss of US market will not crash the price of energy, so it needs a major partner capable and willing to k.ep much of its reserves under ground. In other words, it need China and the BRI projects. And it needs Russia to keep the stuff in the ground, as it does not need the sales to balance its budget.
It is a silly notion that Turkey and Iran ever had problems in their relationships, so counting Turkey into the Sunni armies of the future, is silly. Same goes for Pakistan. In spite of the bitter battle now to stop Chinese investments, the trend will not change. Pakistan needs China, and Pakistan needs Iran. And thus, no matter how may Pakistani pilots and mercenaries serve in Saudi Army, that is their private business, not the desire of the state. In fact, Pakistan refused to be roped in Qatar fiasco. Turkey and Qatar always funded any groups that they could to FOIL SAUDI DESIGNS. Example was Syria prior to Russian involvement, when Saudi supported groups threatened to overwhelm Syria, and Turkey and Qatar funded groups on the border, to insure that they control a corridor to Iraq, and to force US and Saudi Arabia to accept Turkey as a partner at a table, not on the menu. Once a danger of Saudi Caliphate’s easy romp over Syria diminished, Turkey was able to join regional alliances to bring peace to Syria.
Saudi Arabia reopened its Embassy in Baghdad, closed ever since ousting of Saddam Hussein. Now, it does not bother KSA that it is dealing with Shia majority, and the state closely working with Iran.
However, suddenly, so much hope has been put in the young Crown Prince. It may well be wishful thinking. KSA must secure its income, and it will not do it by being chummy to US and picking fight with Iran. As US is not longer a customer, while China is, and Russia can back the Kingdom in protecting its only bread and butter revenue — oil.
Bying S-400 is not to intimidate Iran, as Iran is firmly in confidence of both China and Russia. No, the increased concern for regional instability comes from the over the top and spoiling for a war, any war — Israel. This is making a lots of people very nervous. It will be unwise by Saudi Arabia to count on US interference to calm the hyper-active Israel.
Let us not worry about the new crown prince, he is not alone. Russia and China are backing him up. And US by now must know that nobody in the region is interested in fighting Iran. Perhaps, Bahrain or UAE. Really, that same Bahrain that has 80% of population SHIA, currently oppresed by Sunni royals, and Saudi tanks. Tanks, but no tanks.
As a major customer, China will get Saudi Arabia to sell oil for gold backed petro-yuan. Perhaps, some of it at first. But the writing is on the wall, just nobody really wants to tell Belzebub, what he soon enough will know.
Conclusion: you want peace ? Side with China, Russia, Iran. You want chaos ? Side with US/NATO/ISRAEL. Are you almost bankrupt ? Side with US/NATO/ISRAEL. You didn’t study history ? Side with US/NATO/ISRAEL. You don’t like China, Russia, Iran ? Sorry about you
Luca Taramelli: OK I will elaborate my historical understanding down below, I hope you will do the same, so I can perhaps then I might then understand your viewpoint and comment better.
Khomeini’s Islamic Republicanism is just a Hegelian reaction to the statist secularization under the pervious secular Shah’s regime. Iran’s solution post-revolution is like that of China and [Soviet] Russia — quite authoritarian. None of these sound appealing to me.
As for Israel (sorry Spengler!), yes, it is a racist, apartheid regime, but perhaps they might come around and make finally make peace with the Palestinians (I think it will happen — perhaps soon). This might give them a new lease of life, and perhaps who knows, even go on to outlast the Hasmonean kingdom’s longevity record (80 years, for the record).
As for China, how long can the party rule survive (former Soviet Russia’s example is just next door). I could go on, though, the bottom line — I do not view nations in absolute terms. So, for all of America’s faults, I’d rather that she be the hegemonic world power over a Russian led one, where the world would be a really bleak place.
Amin Patel, that’s right, do not view nations in absolute terms. If not absolute terms, then we ought to try to look at today’s realities: authoritarian or democratic, to me these are words of the past. I don’t think today’s Chinese or Russian common people would be very enthusiastic about living in the US or UK, like 20 or 30 years ago. Iran? Yes is ruled by priests, but how about Israel… where women can’t pray at the wailing wall. I am not very fond of priests, but if you have only a bullet and two priests, well make your choice… US as hegemonic power ? Come on Amin, didn’t they have enough chances, before screwing up big time and killing millions ? Anyway, nothing personal and have a good time
Luca Taramelli: No offense taken. I appreciate your response.
As a side-note, I have visited and prayed in both Mecca and Jerusalem. What’s interesting is in Mecca, the Women and Men perform the pilgrimage (Umrah and Hajj) together. It’s mixed gender.
In Jerusalem at the Wailing wall, there is a physical separation barrier’ between the men and the women. What you are referring is to is absence of a mixed-gender space at the wall. It’s a huge issue. The Orthodox Jews do not play well with Reform Judaism Jewish beliefs.
Netenyahu has done everything in his capacity to block Reform Jews from have equal rights at the wall to appease his right wing base. It’s not all milk and honey. Far from it.
If anything Israel is at risk due to intra-Jewish conflicts more than any external enemy.
Agreed …3 days "stupid " ….lol
What is amazing to me is Professor Goldman love affair with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. I think the Professor should go on the road and do stand up comedy using the Kindom and the Middle East only democracy, Israel as part of his "SHTICK."The truth of the matter is if Brent does not climb to $70.00 and stay there the Kingdom will be in trouble. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a Wahhabist,Salafist, hellhole and nothing that the great visonary MBS will do can alter that salient point.What is even more ridiculous about this biased article is how the Professor ignores what Iran has accomplished BUT continues to curry favor with the backward Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. I wonder WHY??
I’ve not heard of the bi line/name attributed to this article,so given its brazen biases and ill informed content, can we be sure its not written by Bruce Reidel a Saudi apologist and former CIA man, or indeed the USA State dept?
The West does (((their))) bidding. That’s the meta-problem, and has been for at least seven decades.
As for "teaching the coloreds" — those coloreds have, for the most part, embraced Western (read, "white") tech, science and culture.
And it’s hard to argue against the general moral superiority of traditional Western societies. I’m talking about the way they were, not the degeneracy that they’ve been "repaired" into.
Western (again, read "white") societies are clearly more progressive in their capacity for change. They’re also better for women, better for children, better for the environment … better for pretty much everything leftists love to whine about.
so many misleading / misinterpreted facts in this article , one does not know where to start ….. nice try Spengler
Obviously, there is a concerted effort by the supporters of Israel to give credibility to two of the most objectionable regimes in the world: Saudi Arabia and Israel. But both are warmongering vassals of USA, and both need a regime change in order to give peace a chance.
Moreover, the historical background given in this article is simply wrong. Saudi and Israeli support for Islamist jihadists did not start in Iraq. It began more than 20 years earlier in 1979 in Pakistan and Afghanistan under CIA operation Cyclone. That is when the Israelis and Saudis joined the Americans to strengthen jihadists in both Pakistan and Afghanistan in order to bring down a pro-Soviet government. That can of worms has today resulted in USA, Israel and KSA desperately trying to turn back time. But it’s too late. The world is well aware of their belligerent nature.
It’s quite simple: the author is probably a Mossad agent
"Saudi backing for “non-state actors,” namely terrorists, came in response to the overthrow of Saddam Hussein"
– Mohammed Atta begs to disagree.
LOL @ Saudi Arabia reducing Iran in a few days. They can’t even reduce Yemeni tribesmen
Brilliant analysis. What a screwed up mess.