On the eve of the East Asia Summit now under way in the Philippines, diplomats from the United States, Japan, Australia and India met in Manila on Sunday to discuss the issues of security and stability of the Asia-Pacific region.
The only precursor to the quadrilateral format in Asia-Pacific – American slang is “Quad” – was when these four countries (plus Singapore) held a similar meeting in May 2007 – coincidentally, in Manila on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum.
Singapore was absent from Sunday’s event. Singapore is reviewing its China policies (despite its strong alliance with the US). It hopes to be a regional hub in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and as the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations through next year it plans to calm the disputed waters of the South China Sea.
No joint statement was issued after the Quad on Sunday, leaving it to the four capitals to issue press releases. Nuances, inevitably, crept in, which provide useful pointers.
Importantly, the press releases issued in Washington and Tokyo were particularly assertive. The US referred to “quadrilateral partners,” while Japan claimed that the Quad meeting “discussed measures to ensure a free and open international order based on the rule of law in the Asia-Pacific.”
In a major policy speech last month at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson came close to the US too favoring a regional security architecture through “greater engagement and cooperation” among “Indo-Pacific democracies.” But then he added that “it is going to be an evolving process.”
China’s growing pre-eminence in the Asia-Pacific region worries all four countries, and the recent Communist Party Congress in Beijing wouldn’t have eased the angst. Having said that, their priorities vary.
The last thing New Delhi wants is to be hustled into a bloc that restricts its ability to maneuver in the present volatile environment. India retains strategic options, too, which include engaging China bilaterally.
After all, the US$235 billion worth of business deals President Donald Trump secured during his recent “state visit-plus” to China carry a big political message that “America First” dominates US foreign policies.
The last thing New Delhi wants is to be hustled into a bloc that restricts its ability to maneuver in the present volatile environment
The big question, therefore, is: How consistent are the Trump administration’s Asia-Pacific policies? Both Trump and Tillerson say nice things about India to promote US business interests, especially exports of weapons and shale oil, which create jobs in America.
Arguably, Tillerson at times speaks like a strategist, but then, Trump must be believed in that it is he who makes policies – not Tillerson. And Trump is obsessed with transactional diplomacy that is consistent with America First.
India’s strategic dilemma explains the ambivalence that crept into its press release on the Quad event. New Delhi says the diplomats held “consultations.” While the discussions focused on “cooperation based on their converging vision and values” as regards peace, stability and prosperity of the “interconnected region,” they agreed that “a free, open, prosperous and inclusive Indo-Pacific region” is in regional and global interest.
Besides, they also “exchanged views” regarding terrorism, proliferation linkages and on “enhancing” regional connectivity. Most important, the Indian press release underscored that New Delhi’s Act East policy would remain the “cornerstone of its engagement” with the Asia-Pacific region.
Evidently, Indian diplomats are in wait-and-watch mode. The Indian press release conspicuously refrained from using the word “commitment” in any context – unlike the US, Japanese and Australian versions.
Nonetheless, Delhi will seek to create synergy out of the Quad event. In immediate terms, India is to host the Russia-India-China format at the foreign-minister level, possibly on December 11.
There is bound be a “bilateral” between Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and the visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. New Delhi’s focus will be on carrying forward the spirit of consensus at the leadership level to get the India-China relationship on the right track to pursue “healthy stable bilateral ties” and to ensure that “differences don’t become disputes.”
Quite obviously, the US and Japan are in some hurry to herd India to an exclusive regional format, which to some extent would mitigate the steady deepening of ties between the ASEAN countries and China. Incidentally, Singapore hopes to initiate ASEAN-China naval exercises in the disputed South China Sea next year and to finalize the code of conduct to navigate the territorial disputes.
Events are outpacing US (and Japanese) diplomacy and making it look listless and unimaginative. The salience of the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit in Da Nang is that other than America First in trade, the Trump administration lacks a comprehensive regional strategy.
On the other hand, stoking the fires of regional tensions for geopolitical purposes is not what India’s Act East policy has been about. India always sought to harmonize with the ASEAN consensus rather than create a counterpoint or an alternative narrative.
The agreement is already there, it only the shipping time and delivery mode to be decided.
Greg Way : Even Trump is in desperation to put America First – you should know the pulse of your economy, natural calamities, empty promises of empoyment, sick economy..and Why sudden change of kissing India (instead of Pakistan)??
What this writer forgets is that this is today more and more one world, with shrinking space in terms of speed of communication. To look at things in terms of regions is now outdated. We are all in one region. What happens in Asia matters to the USA just as what happens in Europe or Africa matters to China. America is making an alliance with a fellow democracy, India, in Asia, and there is no reason why America and India and Japan together cannot protect their interests and flourish, China or no China.
If China makes too much trouble, the Indians will nuke it. They are a tough bunch and ready to accept annihilation in return.
So just relax and enjoy the ride and give India more excellent weapons, America !
China is its own worst enemy.
WM Wong
China only refrains from bullying neighbours who are firm and full allies of America, like Japan. China stopped threatening India with dire death over Doklam only when it realised the USA was going to help India and China’s own economic links with the USA would be affected if India was attacked. The stronger India allies with America, the more China will be forced to respect it.
WM Wong
India on its own will be broken up by China. Parts of India will be given by China to Pakistan and the rest will be colonies run by Chinese puppets.
No imperialists are half as ruthless as Chinese ones. Ask the Tibetans or the Uighurs. The USa is a liberal and democratic nation. We can always argue with them. Chinese are totalitarians beyond argument. We prefer the West a billion times to the Chinese.
Ram Nath, why would China want to cut India’s oil supply lines from nearby Middle East? But if India falls into the trap as sepoy again for imperialists to contain China by choking of Malacca Straits and fouling the South China Sea it will give reasons for China to hurt Indian supplies too. Why are you eager to play the sepoy role again and at the cost of purchasing expensive US weapons and putting lives at risk?
Qian Deng
India’s sea lanes will be controlled by China soon if the Indian Navy does to ally with the US Navy. China can then cut India off from its oil supplies. If India remains uncommitted the US and Japan will lose interest in it and make terms with China. The Japanese will do a deal with China to secure their oil supplies and economic communications and investments. The USA will abandon Asia. India will be on its own and will be broken up by China. Parts of India will be given by China to Pakistan and the rest will be colonies run by Chinese puppets.
I guess the Pakistani Generals is fuming with anger of the US-India love affair. China and Pakistan have some border disputes that angered India. Pakistan has political and economic issues. There is a concern Pakistan nukes could come into the wrong hands. According to ex-CIA Asia expert Bruce Riedel, he says there is a Saudi Arabia-Pakistan agreement to provide nukes to the Saudis.
You are incapable of realising that China only refrains from bullying neighbours who are firm and full allies of America, like Japan. China stopped threatening India with dire death over Doklam only when it realised the USA was going to help India and China’s own economic links with the USA would be affected if India was attacked. The stronger India allies with America, the more China will be forced to respect it. Sitting on the fence as you advocate only leaves India vulnerable to Chinese bullying. Since you only ask about Indian benefits in alliances, your pen name should have been "Baniya".
Greg Way
It is indeed a desperate sititation for India. No question of that. Unless it acts very fast without delay to solodify alliances with the USA and Japan, India is doomed to Chinese subjugation within a few years.
Talk about desperation. LOL.
India has no choice. This is its last chance to avoid being subjugated by China. If India does not get going quickly a very strong alliance with the USA and Japan the country literally has no future. Its sea lanes will be controlled by China soon if the Indian Navy does to ally with the US Navy. China can cut India off from its oil supplies. If India remains uncommitted the US and Japan will lose interest in it and make terms with China. The Japanese will do a deal with China to secure their oil supplies and economic communications and investments. The USA will abandon Asia. India will be on its own and will be broken up by China. Parts of India will be given by China to Pakistan and the rest will be colonies run by Chinese puppets.
This is the future of India if it does not want an intensive alliance with the USA and Japan and fails to act on that fast.
India does not act like keeping option open to me. India govement talk from both side of it mouth,no one can put any stock toward what it says anyway.
The only thing that matters id India eagerly jumping into US bed, and do what it can to contain China.
Japan and US law and rule based diplomacy give bad taste for the last hundred if not more years. They enforced rule and law that only favor them, unlike consultative, fair and equal term wanted by most smaller nations.