Source: CPB Netherlands

The ISM manufacturing PMI came in well above consensus at 58.8 for August (vs. a forecast of 56.5). The manufacturing employment PMI was even higher, at 59.9. This is consistent with the 36,000 increase in manufacturing employment in August, the biggest increase since March 2012.

The dollar’s strength during 2014 and 2015 was a depressant for US factory output. US exports fell by 4% year-on-year in volume terms during 2015, while world exports and European exports showed modest growth. As the dollar came off its peak US export growth recovered during 2017.