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Despite soaring US yields, dollar risk favors gold

The last time the yield of inflation-protected US Treasuries stood at 2 percent – just before the 2008 World Financial Crisis – gold traded at $800. Today the 10-year inflation-protected yield is back at 2%, yet gold trades at more than twice that price.

For the past fifteen years, gold has traded in a straight line with the yield of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). It still does, but after the Covid crisis and the Ukraine war, it’s a different line.

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