When news broke this month that India had finally sold its sophisticated BrahMos missile system to Vietnam, the sensitive procurement promised to shift the power balance in the South China Sea, where Vietnam is now jousting with China over contested maritime areas and rights to mineral resources.
The apparent weapons deal came soon after China pressured Vietnam against energy exploration, conducted by a Spanish concessionaire, in the sea and as Indian and Chinese troops squared off over a high mountain road-building project on the Doklam plateau in the Himalayas.
Soon after Vietnam’s state-controlled media reported the sale, India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued a clarification saying no such agreement had been reached. Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a broad statement on improving bilateral defense ties with India via their comprehensive strategic partnership, but didn’t refer specifically to the missile sale in question.
Adding to the intrigue, Vietnamese media reported that Hanoi had not only purchased but already taken delivery of the 6,000-pound supersonic weapons which India jointly produces with Russia. The low-altitude short-range missiles are known to be difficult to shoot down at close range and would put China’s strategic facilities on features it claims in the South China Sea at particular risk.
The timing of the sale would have inevitably been viewed by Beijing as a provocation as the two sides worked towards a resolution of the Doklam standoff. Now that China and India have agreed to ease tensions in an “expeditious disengagement”, a de-escalation announced by both sides on Monday, will the dangled BrahMos missile sale to Vietnam come off the table in a possible unspoken quid pro quo exchange with China?
India has already delivered to Vietnam its indigenously developed Akash surface-to-air missiles, which have an interception range of 25 kilometers against aircraft, helicopters and drones. China carped about that sale and delivery despite the weapons’ extremely short range capabilities.
Earlier this year India started to train Vietnamese pilots how to fly Sukhoi fighter jets and Vietnamese sailors how to operate Kilo-class submarines, Russian military equipment which both countries’ armed forces use. India has developed the variant BrahMos-A, a lighter version of the missile designed specifically to be launched from its Su-30 MKI strike fighters. The heavier BrahMos can be launched from land and sea.
India’s engagement with Vietnam is part of its “Act East” policy of building influence in East and Southeast Asia, a wide-ranging bid to counterbalance China’s influence in the region. Hanoi has concurrently aimed to diversify its strategic relations to both counterbalance and reduce its traditional reliance on China.
Vietnam is also bolstering strategic ties with Japan, a trend which began in 2011 coincident with a new wave of Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, and recently agreed to allow a US aircraft carrier to visit one of its ports in the coming months, the first such American docking since the Vietnam War.
India and Vietnam agreed to elevate their strategic partnership established in 2007 to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Hanoi last September. As part of that agreement, Modi offered Vietnam a US$500 million line of credit for defense purposes.
While the two sides’ ties have grown, the BrahMos sale has been a sticking point due to concerns over how China may react. Developed jointly with Russia, which is known to approve the sale, the BrahMos system has a 290-kilometer range, can reach Mach 2.8 speeds and is capable of targeting ships, submarines, planes or land-based targets like command centers, radar towers and missile launchers.
While now may not be an opportune time for India to provoke China, Vietnam is keen to up its maritime defenses. In 2013, the Indian Navy successfully tested a submarine launched version of the BrahMos, a capability that allows for nearby strikes without being detected by potential targets. The missile also performs an evasive “S-maneuver” before impact that makes it difficult to shoot down at close range.
The BrahMos is clearly in Beijing’s sights as it builds still largely unprotected strategic facilities in the South China Sea. Last year, China complained about India’s deployment of BrahMos missiles on its border across from Tibet, saying the supersonic weapons exceeded New Delhi’s self-defense needs.
Presciently, perhaps, the People’s Liberation Army Daily op-ed last October said the deployment along their shared border would increase “antagonism” in China-India relations and have a “negative impact” on regional stability.
China has been mostly muted as India and Vietnam have drawn strategically closer. It’s yet to be seen if China will challenge Indian energy firm ONGC Videsh’s two-year extension given by Hanoi last month to explore for oil in the South China Sea, as it did this month with Spanish energy company Repsol’s drilling in a separate area.
One view of India’s foray into the South China Sea is to keep China concentrated in a more proximal area and diminish its rising interest in the Indian Ocean, where India has traditionally had preeminence. But it’s just as likely China moves more aggressively into the Indian Ocean, where it is developing a string of ports in India’s neighboring nations, if New Delhi sells and delivers the BrahMos system to Vietnam.
It’s still possible that Vietnam’s mixed messaging on the status of the proposed missile sale was meant to send a signal to both nations – a notice to China that better defense is at the forefront of its mind after Beijing’s pressure to stop exploration in the area, and a goad to India that it wants to finalize the deal after a drawn-out negotiation that has garnered more strategic think pieces than actual deliverables.
Vietnam is turning increasingly to major powers for security cooperation and stronger deterrence against China’s militarization of the features it controls in the South China Sea. Reports indicated Beijing threatened military action if Vietnam did not withdrawal its Spanish concessionaire’s exploration ship from contested waters, but later reports played down that an actual threat was made.
Vietnam’s bid to push China into a binding code of conduct in the area via the Association of Southeast Asian Nations was iced after the consensus-driven organization failed to reach agreement on the issue this month in Manila. Hanoi has become a lone voice in the association on the need to take a tougher stand on China’s perceived provocations in the maritime area.
That perceived multilateral failure makes the fast acquisition of BrahMos missiles even more important to Vietnam. But as India reaches a delicate rapprochement with China in the Himalayas after the worst flare-up between the two Asian giants in decades, it’s not clear yet India aims to push the deal forward, if, indeed, it hasn’t already quietly been done.
India should have sold this many years ago. China has trampled on the soverienity of many of its neighbors. It is only a matter of time before they all coalesce into formal and informal alliances. For India, the red line was not Doklam, but the CPEC road via Jammu & Kashmir.
India does not control the Indian Ocean. USA does with its Diego Garcia naval base. Wake up Helen Clark!
Well, if what Mr. Gertz in a previous article about the amazing Chinese electronic counter measure systems could "make" or cause" the US navy ships to lose complete control, maybe those electronic systems can be deployed to make these Indian toys to go" crazy" too? Watch out, Brahmos!
" the sensitive procurement promised to shift the power balance in the South China Sea " ? How ? Destroy all the Chinese installations in the Spratley without reprisal? This is what war mongers would like to see happen and hope that Vietnam won’t be severely destroyed.
It is Vietnam which is the first to reclaim land and first to place military installations in the Spratley islands. Don’t others for following Vietnam’s lead.
The Chinese installations in the Paracels and Spratley Islands are to form the first line of defence for the Hainan naval base against the American.
Its not South China Sea. Its East Vietnam Sea.
Just this year alone, US warships have been involved in accidents in Asian waters four times. Obviously, the US sailors cannot control a war ship. How could it control a naval base?
well, Chinese still hasn’t read history of "little" Vietnamese. They have put up a stiff fight against former imperialists like the French, American and resisted Bullying China in the past. Don’t underestimate them!
Don’t get all work up over the transfer missile as if it is the ultimate weapon to counter the Chinese. Vietnam understands where it stand with regard to its position in Asia and is no match to the powerful PLA Navy. Use it once to sink a PLA ship, and that will be the last time you do so.
In the Vietnam War, Vietnam wss very well supported by China.
if China can have its hand in SriLanka Gadwar
CEPC. why should INDIA be secretive about
Brahmos sale Vietnam is Small BUT l Bold to standup against CHINA
Good written article and analysis. It is hard whom to believe. Vietnam still uses the cold war propaganda strategy while India is not willing to make much commitment to venture outside its own backyard. India has doubt about its own potential. Hope India’s military industrial complex would evolve faster than predicted to boost its anti-poverty programs
A lot of trial balloons and misinformation are to be expected in this sort of articles, but the following claims seem ridiculous:
"Earlier this year India started to train Vietnamese pilots how to fly Sukhoi fighter jets and Vietnamese sailors how to operate Kilo-class submarines, Russian military equipment which both countries’ armed forces use."
Vietnam has as strong a weapons supplier relationship with Russia as India. Why should they need second-hand training of Russian weapons from Indians?
Don’t worry India, you are a lot weaker in your own neighborhood than China in its own neighborhood.
You are keep giving China reason to support your regional rivials, thank you….
now about that loan you promised to Mongolia, where is it?
Wait and watch what will be happened next… When sea Silent, he looks pretty of nature but when some basted destroy its calm… It roar like natural disaster… I suggest all chinies don’t break the calm of sea and nature as well as word otherwise "history is evidence as hitler"…
Fifu Ji the East Vietnam Sea cannot be found on any standard world atlas. Maybe produce an edition, will you.
Vietnamese defending their land against invaders are brave and tenacious. But in the open seas what can they do if they don’t have the necessary weapons or they have only a small quantity of it. Fire a few Brahmos and sink a few vessels. Then hope and pray for resupply to arrive before the inevitable reprisal .
"India has chosen to stay out of BRI for sovereignty reasons. But China is not alone; Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan had long crossed India’s sovereignty red lines when they signed the Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement (QTTA) with Pakistan in 1995 to use the Karakoram Highway passing through Gilgit-Baltistan as a transit corridor." What red line is that? Where was the Indian demarche ?
Brijesh Prabhakar India has been the literally the wolf in sheep skin guarding the chicken coop. Now nearly all the chicken in the coop has been swallowed by India except Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka.
Sikkim, Mizoram, Tripura, Nagaland, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya and Kashmir are now in forced union with India. India need the draconian AFSA to suppress the ongoing rebellions in the annexed lands. What a shame, calling herself the largest democracy in the world.
Nehru’s smooth talking lull her smaller neighbours into thinking India meant what Nehru spouted “mutual respect” for other nations’ “territorial integrity and sovereignty,” nonaggression, noninterference in “internal affairs,” equality and mutual benefit, and “peaceful coexistence”. It turned out India is a worst imperial power than the British. What a tragedy for those vanished kingdoms.
China with its age old idea of empire building is making every one stressed-out.. it’s same strategy of Mongols china is following..it will collapse
Toys???wait till it bites you..just giving free money to beggar’s like Pakistan and north Korea will not make you world leader..a dog is still called a dog even if it rides in Mercedes
Koh Jek Siew I am not here to have a political discourse. I am ony stating facts about the current situation.
No country is perfect – Mao killed 20Million in his great leap forward; Srilanka, Myanmar have their hands bloody in ethnic cleansing; China occupied Tibet. The list is endless.
Kwai Laan Chin
False, China supported the war against the French, Russia supported Vietnam against the US, Nixon visited Mao …
Satya Narayan Panda India was never a nation before British colony, they were British Rajas w/hundreds of languages & political parties w/deep conflicting interests and more than 20 official languages. Claiming to be the world biggest democracy (a big phony), still has to show a "caste certificate" for a government position a brutal discrimination disguised as affirmative action – like the Nazis, its horrible treatment of the disabled & women the worst in the G20 with Delhi, Kolkata & Mumbai now competing for the rape city title. BJP brutal injust oppression toward the minorities now casting Muslims Sikhs & Christians like the untouchables with no full rights… mob violence are becoming the rules as if India is only for the Hindus.. with now Mumbai protesting, religious riots, national bank employees striking & 27 active insurgents wanting independence chaos everywhere. India could eventually face partition due to this Hindutva tyranny.
Modi a Hindu nationalist & vegetarian (Hitler is also a vegetarian) as governor is responsible for Gujarat riot & massacre of Muslims and was barred from entering the United States. His BJP regime "overpaid" USD billions for fancy foreign weapons (more kickbacks?) while the majority suffers, and w/ Modi’s currency-cancel policy transferring wealth from the poor to the rich (more black money?).
Half the India population still defecate in the open w/ filth contamination everywhere ……do rat worship at Rajasthan……. people barely hanging onto outside of traveling trains even derailing …. 300 mil people without clean water and 300 mil illiterate adults….the planet biggest cesspool of most corruption – beyond description. Since 1995 300K Indian farmers committed suicide, mass children died at Gorakhpur due to hospital officials not paying oxygen bill……decent freeway, airport & modern buildings infrastructure almost non-existence except pockets in Bangalore & Mumbai etc.
Despite bragging of its IT success (employ tiny 20 mil people), India is a country with its corrupt ruling elites having "ABSOLUTELY NO ACCOUNTABILITY" to its people, barely see corrupt Indian elites/officials get punished. Now even falsifying school textbooks that Gandi wasn’t assassinated (by Hindu fanatic Godse), China lost the war in 1962, Maharana Pratap defeated the Mughal that ruled India for 331 years, ignoring Nehur first president/ longest serving PM etc. etc…..making India a joker country of no credibility….
Shameful India elites, a bunch of hubris braggadocio colonial slave mentality (inferiority complex) constantly touting their fake GDP numbers, which is predicated on the misery & looting of its majority hapless poor.
Koh Jek Siew
The China sea does not mean that it belongs to China, You can find the French maps, the islands belong to the Vietnamese…
Riki Winsot lol My god ur stupidity goes beyond the depth of deepest part of ocean. India was India on map on 300BC by Maurya empire it was one which exceeded from Western tip of Pakistan (part of India that time) to all Bengal (part of India that time) to mayanmar & even in Mughal time it was one most time of the history. It’s not British who made India it’s a misconception. So learn abt India first then comment. Just Google Mauryan or Mughal or Gupta empire & see there maps.
India should sell brahmos China is already made it intentions clear for decades by there anti India behavior so India should give China the taste of it’s medicine. the best defense is offence.
One day America+Japan+India+Australia+Vietnam+EU will form a pact to destroy CHINA. Chinese go to hell ask yourselves why.
You can keep dreaming.
Chinese propagandists think that the world belive any lie which they would utter.
Killer of thousands Tibetians because of their greed for expansion and power, are now trying to tell lesson of peace to others. Supressors of humanity holds no moral rights to say what is right and what is wrong, but of course those hypocrats would not agree to that. Chinese dictatorship sysyem is murdrer of thousands of peace loving people, destroyers of religion, temples, traditions and now they are trying to point out problems in India. Sick ideologists – communist, differentiate even among their own leaders, they build different size statues of those as per their staus in their sick system and then they try to target differences in India.
China have self created border disputes with almost all it’s neighbouring countries, showing it’s never ending hunger for land annextation. China has annexed a whole free nation Tibet. How dare they talk about India and it’s integral parts which are there from past thousands of year. They should better Learn history and try to put facts.
No power in the world can separate any Indian part from India.
China was educated by the great Indian thoughts came from Gautam Budh. Chinese should be grateful for that. They should think twice before saying anything wrong about the nation who educated them. This should be rembered that Gautam buddh was also born to Hindu parents, the religion which some sick people are trying to defame. May god bless them with good thoughts.
Helen Clark: Brahmos is a done deal, 500-million USD authorized, missiles inventoried and now it’s for the Chinese to figure out how many, versions and deployed locations…The reduced cost from 4+ millions to 2.1 millions /unit, is highly appreciated by the prudent Vietnamese military who will routinely, acknowlegded receipts after the 1st target practice (remember Israel’s Spyder and Extra?)! Follow these 3 leads for your next article: 1) Coastal defense regiments 381&382 formed in 2016 now, finally haved some missiles to train with. 2) Already operating 3 squadrons of SU-30’s, Vietnamese pilots are only trained by India on heavier SU-30MKI with Brahmos-M. 3) Why does Cam Ranh naval base announce the July opening of its underground storage and restocking of 3M-54E (anti-ship), 3M-14E (land attack) missiles from the Kilos submarines fleet?
Quang Tran typical chinese propaganda. Accidents happen. Remember the dumb Chinese pilot who crashed his F8 trying to show off in front of an US E38 surveillance plane, 2001?
Ooohhh we r scared of your scary electronics or whatever. Lol! U r better off sticking to manufacture of cheap toys. Oh
… BTW.. Howz that Doklam road construction coming along?? Heard China has withdrawn after all that big talks and bluster. Hahaha!
We have seen and know what Vietnam is capable of. 80,000 Chinese soldiers were massacred the last time u tried to get adventurous in Vietnam.
Koh Jek Siew South China sea is not China’s sea either.
The last time China went to war with Vietnam… U lost 80,000 soldiers. Just cos u have nukes does not mean u can nuke Vietnam. They are tenacious fighters unlike the farmer soldiers of thePLA. Haha!
chinese never do business or help without gains
chinese tried several thousands years to exterminate to destroy vietnam but chineses can’t.Americans/French/japanese abuse vneses badly but can’t compare to chineses abuse billions times worse than.
Antinoüs Tran:
Vietnamese like you are an ungrateful lot. It is an open secret that the Vietcong got very substantial help from China.
This is from https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/china-contributed-substantially-to-vietnam-war-victory-claims-scholar:
"As for the Vietnamese, they don’t talk about the Chinese role because of their nationalist pride. They want to think that they won the war on their own, without any help from China. "
From another article http://alphahistory.com/vietnamwar/chinese-and-soviet-involvement/
"As the United States poured men and money into South Vietnam, Chinese and Soviet involvement in Vietnam also increased. As the world’s largest communist powers, both the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China also lent moral, logistic and military support to North Vietnam. "
Here are the maps documents made by the French administration under colonization attesting the 2 archipeles appear in vietnam
https://www.legrandsoir.info/mer-de-l-est-pour-les-vietnamiens-mer-de-chine-meridionale-pour-les-chinois
Koh Jek Siew
Here are the maps documents made by the French administration under colonization attesting the 2 archipeles appear in vietnam
https://www.legrandsoir.info/mer-de-l-est-pour-les-vietnamiens-mer-de-chine-meridionale-pour-les-chinois
Riki Winsot INDIA was a country EONS before monkey-excrement-blooded hans came out of their ancestral monkey-poo-holes and started infesting this world with their monkey-sh!t-like faces….
Koh Jek Siew INDIA was a country EONS before monkey-excrement-blooded hans came out of their ancestral monkey-poo-holes and started infesting this world with their monkey-sh!t-like faces….
AND DO NOT EVER FORGET Tibet Uyguristan Inner Mongolia are invaded lands AND MOST CERTAINLY WILL flush out the occupying monkey-poo (hans) in time to come.
FORGET cpec obor though. Balochs are not self-immolating monks as you have already seen.
林台生 INDIA was a country EONS before monkey-excrement-blooded hans came out of their ancestral monkey-poo-holes and started infesting this world with their monkey-sh!t-like faces….
AND DO NOT EVER FORGET Tibet Uyguristan Inner Mongolia are invaded lands AND MOST CERTAINLY WILL flush out the occupying monkey-poo (hans) in time to come.
FORGET cpec obor though. Balochs are not self-immolating monks as you have already seen.
INDIA was a country EONS before monkey-excrement-blooded hans came out of their ancestral monkey-poo-holes and started infesting this world with their monkey-sh!t-like faces….
AND DO NOT EVER FORGET Tibet Uyguristan Inner Mongolia are invaded lands AND MOST CERTAINLY WILL flush out the occupying monkey-poo (hans) in time to come.
FORGET cpec obor though. Balochs are not self-immolating monks as you have already seen.