It’s time to buy Asian stocks. In fact, last Friday was the time to buy Asian stocks. Outside of Japan, a relief rally buoyed Korean, Chinese and Southeast Asian equities, with the bellwether Hang Seng China Enterprises Index jumping 1.27%. The markets are right and the pundits are wrong.
The comedy of errors that ensued on North Korea’s July 28 ICBM test is nearly over. American policy is firmly in the hands of military men – Generals Mattis, McMaster and Kelly – who do not believe that America has a viable military option of any kind. The White House hardliners are in trouble, and a news outlet close to the West Wing is reporting that Chief Strategist Steve Bannon is in the doghouse. Beijing is happy to horse-trade with Washington, offering cooperation in pressure on the Pyongyang regime in return for understanding on other matters, including but not limited to trade. In the classic age of British film comedy, the story could have been scripted as “Carry On, Korea.”
If Beijing had scripted the North Korea crisis, it could not have gone better for China. American standing in the region has declined, the hardliners in Washington are having a time out, and Beijing’s standing as mediator and peacemaker has risen considerably. There is no evidence, to be sure, that the events of the past week played out according to a Chinese plot. Prevailing wisdom is that Kim Jong-un is crazy enough to unleash a war if backed into a corner, and far too crazy for Beijing to control. Of course, that is what the North Korean leader wants us to think, and perhaps what Beijing wants us to think, too. As Hillary Clinton said, “What does it matter now?” China won this one hands down.
Western intelligence services don’t have a window into Pyongyang, so we can only guess what is happening. Nonetheless, we can say with an acceptable margin of error that the North Korean crisis is over for all intents and purposes; that military options are not on the table; that Washington is prepared to tolerate a small North Korean arsenal of nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them; and that Beijing is the overall winner.
As National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster said on American television Sunday morning, “we’re not closer to war than a week ago.” Despite President Trump’s “fire and fury” and “locked and loaded” remarks, the US never was close to war with North Korea, as every person in a responsible position at the US Department of Defense is happy to explain. There simply is no military option: If the United States conducted a limited conventional strike on North Korea, North Korea would fire an artillery barrage at the South Korean capital of Seoul, just 35 miles from the border. A nuclear strike on North Korea could destroy the regime and silence its artillery, to be sure, but the fallout would kill a lot of South Koreans as well.
North Korea’s regime may be crazy, but its July 4 and July 28th tests of allegedly nuclear-capable ICBM’s were well-crafted, measured provocations. They represent no immediate threat to the United States, but a possibly serious threat in the medium term. Pyongyang left the Americans to debate whether it can tolerate a North Korean that has a few nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, or cannot tolerate any such capability at all. Or perhaps it can tolerate it as long as the small arsenal does not grow into a big one.
It also leaves the Americans wondering whether the North Koreans could have produced the missiles without Chinese help. The missiles are believed to be based on Russian designs, with some additional assistance from Pakistan. Critical components of North Korean missiles, Western intelligence services learned after the South Korean navy retrieved sections of a North Korean satellite booster rocket earlier this year, are foreign-made and sourced through China, as Joby Warrick reported in the Washington Post April 13. China in any case subsidizes the North Korean economy through cut-price fuel.
It isn’t clear whether the North Korean missile program would exist without Chinese help, or at least acquiescence in smuggling crucial components through Chinese firms. The North Korean economy certainly depends on Chinese help. Nonetheless, China distanced itself from Kim Jong-un’s nuclear program and deplores his most recent provocations.
The ambiguity of China’s position gives it all the more leverage with Washington. China can claim just enough influence in Pyongyang to extract concessions from Washington in return for its help in containing the North Korean menace, while dissociating itself from the North Korean regime’s actions as such. Whether or not Beijing designed it that way, it’s a lucky place to be.
For example: President Trump was scheduled to deliver a long-awaited policy address on trade with China on Aug. 4, drawing a line in the sand over theft of intellectual property, as well as Chinese subsidies of steel and other export goods. White House planners expected the speech to begin a prolonged wrangle with Beijing over China’s $350 billion trade surplus with the United States. The White House was considering a number of possible measures to reverse the migration of high-tech industries from the United States to China, out of national security as well as economic concerns.
The speech was cancelled on the night of Aug. 3. According to Reuters, the priority shifted to persuading China to vote with the United States at the UN Security Council on North Korea. Obligingly, Russia and China supported an American resolution to impose new trade sanctions on North Korea Aug. 6, and President Trump hailed the vote as an American diplomatic victory.
Trump made a major tactical blunder by threatening military action against the North Korean regime without, of course, specifying precisely what tripwire would bring about such action. After making a threat that the United States cannot practically act upon, there was only one way for Washington to go, which is backward. Administration officials, including National Security Adviser McMaster, have been at pains during the past few days to downplay the use of force.
China can offer its good offices to rein in the seemingly irrational rulers of Pyongyang, while extracting concessions from the United States in return. Xi Jinping doesn’t want a war, of course. Neither does Kim Jong-un, whose objective is regime survival. By acting as China’s cat’s-paw, Kim has made himself all the more useful to Beijing. And by drawing out the US president into a war of words, he has elevated his international stature. That’s a win-win for Beijing and a lose-lose for Washington.
Of course, Trump could go Xi one better, and use the Korean crisis as the pretext to abandon America’s longstanding commitment not to build a global ballistic missile defense system, an action that Beijing and Moscow would view as a strategic game-changer. As Angelo Codevilla notes acidly, “Keeping America undefended against major missile threats has been very much our policy. Since the 1970s, the arms-control community and its allies in Congress have effectively policed Pentagon programs to make sure that they would not produce capabilities to defend America.”
Good: why should we let them set our course?
Mr. Goldman, Spengler, Likud Spokesman, Natanyahu Blogger.
There was never an issue with N. Korea. What started the N. Korean crises was the other low IQ president (Baby Bush) with no Presidential skill set who was again surrounded by Israeli firsters and agents in the White House. During Clinton administration and presidency of Roh Tae Woo of S. Korea, there was a Sunshine policy that was jointly initiated by the Koreas and there was even a peace train established which families could visit each other in demilitrarized zone. I have first experience of that and know many Koreans families that finally met their loved ones after 50 years. Now what brought all this to a halt was when Baby Bush lumped N. Korea along with Iran and Iraq as "Axis of Evil". Again thanks to your paymasters in Tel Aviv who had a grand plan to attack Iraq, Iran and Syria along with the rest for the benefit of the greater Israel. Perhaps most readers would ask why would you include N. Korea as "Axis of Evil"? N. Korea has never committed terrorist act (Unlike Israel). The reason was that N. Korea has never recognized the entity of Israel and has always provided military assistance to the regional countries in Middle East along with doctors and engineers . They were always on the side of Arabs who were fighting Israel They have freely shared their Missile techology with everyone or provided them at low cost. This has been a torn on the side of Israel, therefore they have done anything they could to smear the N. Koreans. America really should have no issues with Korea…its the Israeli agents and firster in Washington D.C. that have always been ecthing to curb N. Koreas role in ME and Africa. In particular, they do not want N. Korea to have any relations with Iran which in turn might advance Iran’s Missile technology or Nuclear know how. Given the fact that N. Korea has always invited Iranian scientist to be on the front row of the observation decks when testing missiles and sharing of other data…this has been the biggest nightmare for Israel….again, this is another case of tail wagging the dog!!….This sick embroynic relationship would hopefully end as the younger generations of Americans are waking up to the truth. Chinese know that Americans would never attack a Nuclear power and in fact they know that Trump is a puppet and the real puppetters are in Tel Aviv.
As for buying stocks…don’t worry, this audience here is much smarter than you might think. American Hollywood’s timeis pretty much over and reality is settling in.
China ,pakistan assisted north korea to develop nuke .
China has used NK as a cat’s paw against the US for years. The Fat Kid gets what he wants: antagonizing the US is the only way he can get the validation he craves. The trouble is, if we try to ignore or downplay his provocation, how far would he go to command it again? Can we count on China to reign him in? What if they don’t, or what if they fail?
KS Chin are you contemplating Hari Kiri?
Normal but strategically unsophisticated people like me wonder what we get out of our agreement not to defend ourselves against nuclear missiles. Is there a quid pro quo?
Military excercises are scheduled as I recall around Aug. 21. China will now pressure US to cancel or tone down excercises to bring more "calm" to the area. We shall see. The diplomacy offered by China, in exchange for its "neutrality" is that the US must suffer a first strike, lose a city or some military bases in Asia before obliterating N. Korea. This is a dangerous game China is playing with the country. No President will ever accede to such "sacrifice" for Chinese neutrality or the neutrality of any state for that matter. China continues to speak to the US and our military as if the "imperial presidency" illusion projected by Obama is real. It is not real. President Trump is an oligarch, but he does not view the country as a platform for international politics of world elites, or the office of the President as something more than a constitutional national office of the US. That radical perception is President Trump’s "nationalism" that has not been fully grasped by other international elites. He is serious. Our military is serious. We are not going to allow North Korea to kill millions, destroy military bases in the Pacific or fail to defend our allies for Chinese neutrality or the world’s "opinion." As commander in chief, the President’s primary duty is to defend the US and its territories, allies from attack. Pursuant to the nuclear non proliferation treaty, we are obliged to defend our non-nuclear allies, such as So. Korea and Japan against nuclear attack. If we lose credibility or fail in our obligations, you can count the years on one hand of fingers to all out nuclear war. We also as a nation understand something else: Iran is involved here. In fact, I suspect a large part of the North Korean threat of war is a war games theater for Iran: that country is learning who all the primary players are in nuclear regional conflicts; what their relative positions are and the resolve of the parties to enforce the NNPT under the nuclear umbrella of the US. Iran is testing our resolve here, the nation knows it. Some serious misunderstandings and miscalculations are going on here. One of them is a perception the American people have no idea what is at stake. We’ll see what happens around the third week in August.
instead*
KS Chin you should have listened to Trump’s speech insteas of spewing hatred
Trump love for America? Which America? Looking at Charlotsville, its seems its the White America or perhaps more correctly the ones who voted him in. Attributing patriotism to him seems a bit over the top.
China is the real culprit in this crisis, and development of North Korean Nukes and missiles. They provide everythign to North Korea, and Crazy Kim is completely playing to the Chinese scripted drama. The only way to get North Korea to back down and give up Nukes, is to put a trade embargo on China. When it will hurt the Chinese bottom-lines, they will realize the wages of such dangerous games.
David Goldman should stick to critiquing Music. China is very smart but only against a US which from Nixon to Obama was willing to take its draws down on demand. America first, IP , Trade deficit changes the game and brings threats from China about poisoning relations; The worm has turned, Trump is a Patriot with only love for America motivating him. Goldman will swallow his words