The more power China has accumulated, the more it has attempted to achieve its foreign-policy objectives with bluff, bluster, and bullying. But, as its Himalayan border standoff with India’s military continues, the limits of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent.
The current standoff began in mid-June, when Bhutan, a close ally of India, discovered the People’s Liberation Army trying to extend a road through Doklam, a high-altitude plateau in the Himalayas that belongs to Bhutan, but is claimed by China. India, which guarantees tiny Bhutan’s security, quickly sent troops and equipment to halt the construction, asserting that the road – which would overlook the point where Tibet, Bhutan, and the Indian state of Sikkim meet – threatened its own security.
Since then, China’s leaders have been warning India almost daily to back down or face military reprisals. China’s defense ministry has threatened to teach India a “bitter lesson,” vowing that any conflict would inflict “greater losses” than the Sino-Indian War of 1962, when China invaded India during a Himalayan border dispute and inflicted major damage within a few weeks. Likewise, China’s Foreign Ministry has unleashed a torrent of vitriol intended to intimidate India into submission.
Despite all of this, India’s government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has kept its cool, refusing to respond to any Chinese threat, much less withdraw its forces. As China’s warmongering has continued, its true colors have become increasingly vivid. It is now clear that China is attempting to use psychological warfare (“psywar”) to advance its strategic objectives – to “win without fighting,” as the ancient Chinese military theorist Sun Tzu recommended.
China has waged its psywar against India largely through disinformation campaigns and media manipulation, aimed at presenting India – a raucous democracy with poor public diplomacy – as the aggressor and China as the aggrieved party. Chinese state media have been engaged in eager India-bashing for weeks. China has also employed “lawfare,” selectively invoking a colonial-era accord, while ignoring its own violations – cited by Bhutan and India – of more recent bilateral agreements.
For the first few days of the standoff, China’s psywar blitz helped it dominate the narrative. But, as China’s claims and tactics have come under growing scrutiny, its approach has faced diminishing returns. In fact, from a domestic perspective, China’s attempts to portray itself as the victim – claiming that Indian troops had illegally entered Chinese territory, where they remain – has been distinctly damaging, provoking a nationalist backlash over the failure to evict the intruders.
As a result, President Xi Jinping’s image as a commanding leader, along with the presumption of China’s regional dominance, is coming under strain, just months before the critical 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). And it is difficult to see how Xi could turn the situation around.
Despite China’s overall military superiority, it is scarcely in a position to defeat India decisively in a Himalayan war, given India’s fortified defenses along the border. Even localized hostilities at the tri-border area would be beyond China’s capacity to dominate, because the Indian army controls higher terrain and has greater troop density. If such military clashes left China with so much as a bloodied nose, as happened in the same area in 1967, it could spell serious trouble for Xi at the upcoming National Congress.
But, even without actual conflict, China stands to lose. Its confrontational approach could drive India, Asia’s most important geopolitical “swing state,” firmly into the camp of the United States, China’s main global rival. It could also undermine its own commercial interests in the world’s fastest-growing major economy, which sits astride China’s energy-import lifeline.
Already, Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj has tacitly warned of economic sanctions if China, which is running an annual trade surplus of nearly $60 billion with India, continues to disturb border peace. More broadly, as China has declared unconditional Indian troop withdrawal to be a “prerequisite” for ending the standoff, India, facing recurrent Chinese incursions over the last decade, has insisted that border peace is a “prerequisite” for developing bilateral ties.
Against this background, the smartest move for Xi would be to attempt to secure India’s help in finding a face-saving compromise to end the crisis. The longer the standoff lasts, the more likely it is to sully Xi’s carefully cultivated image as a powerful leader, and that of China as Asia’s hegemon, which would undermine popular support for the regime at home and severely weaken China’s influence over its neighbors.
Already, the standoff is offering important lessons to other Asian countries seeking to cope with China’s bullying. For example, China recently threatened to launch military action against Vietnam’s outposts in the disputed Spratly Islands, forcing the Vietnamese government to stop drilling for gas at the edge of China’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea.
China does not yet appear ready to change its approach. Some experts even predict that it will soon move forward with a “small-scale military operation” to expel the Indian troops currently in its claimed territory. But such an attack is unlikely to do China any good, much less change the territorial status quo in the tri-border area. It certainly won’t make it possible for China to resume work on the road it wanted to build. That dream most likely died when India called the Chinese bully’s bluff.
Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including Asian Juggernaut, Water: Asia’s New Battleground, and Water, Peace, and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2017.
www.project-syndicate.org
Another constipated author. He says China is in no position to defeat India along its border because New Delhi has fortified defenses… Why hasn’t China done also? Oh yes.. That would be perceived as a threat like the case now… And still no official words from Bhutan, so far it has been Indian narrative..have the happiest folks on earth taken a collective vow of silence? Is that why they are so happy? Speak no evil and no lies..
Yes.. India may no longer be officially a western colony, but it still is in heart and mind.
This link below will help to clearup the misinformation that China is the aggressor in the 1962 SIno-India War and should help one keep an open mind on the current Dklam/Dkolang dispute. This from Greogory Clarke an Australian diplomat during the 1962 war and his findings. http://www.gregoryclark.net/redif.html
to the credit of rediff.com (an indian media organisation ) which published the above; case of better late than never.
And here’s link to Neville Maxwell’s book on China’s India War: https://chinaindiaborderdispute.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/neville-maxwell-chinas-india-war.pdf
Neville and Gregory are not China sympathisers/apologists but presenting facts as they “discovered” them. Have a read of the above with an open mind.
War is the worst outcome in any dispute. I hope India can take a bold step back and settle their border dispute with China like Russia did.
Have a read with an open mind what a Bhutanese view is. I cant say he speaks for all of them but from what I have been reading this seems to be view of the majority Bhutanese. Mr Wangcha’s blog (a number of articles on this border problem) is worth your while to persue to see the third pespective on this border problem
http://wangchasangey.blogspot.com.au/2017/08/the-strategy-behind-india-doklam.html
am i right in thinking that its indian troops in chnese territory,and not chinas troops in india..so it looks like a stalemate..because china will not attack india..all it will do is ask india to withdraw its troops….nobody won..
Karthik Sunder please read what the Bhutanese got to say. They are the ones under India’s tender care. Read Wangcha Sangey’s blog will you.
Neel Lakhani, NK will now on path to a stable country, because it has secured it’s existence, just like India and Pakistan did years ago.
Jo Snow keep dreaming.
PLA is an overblown war inexperienced army. Hahahaa
Jo Snow Bhutan hates india with passion?
Can you be a bigger imbecile?
This is not the West buddy where you can bully or buy your way with money. To deal with a nation state like india you need wisdom.
Jo Snow try not to troll too much buddy. Indians will make a sandwich out of you.
Yes you are rigbt. And that’s what the author is saying. China is bluffing.
The Chinese will mark their time knowing the Indian cannot withdraw without lost of face, and cannot advance without being seen as an aggressor twice over. The Indian can only stay put and wait for China to act. Meanwhile the Chinese can plan carefully where to strike, what to strike and when to strike. Let India guess where, when and what will hit them. Let them waste their resources in mobilizing and staying alert for long period of time. Let them wear out.
India considers Bhutan to be of vital strategic value to them, and hence very anxious to annex Bhutan. To China it doesn’t make much strategic difference. The distance to the Siliguri corridor won’t matter much in the age of standoff weapons.
lt is the other way that INDIA is bullying the others
Jo Snow @ Bhutan doesnt hate India. There are tiny elements who have negative opinion, but overall its all good. Just because Mr Sangey has a problem doesnt mean entire Bhutan has a problem.
Rohit Rohit Go read your own reporter’s reports from Bhutan, and you will get a sense of how much love they have for you..
Talking black into white is Indian Elite’s specity.
Lots of lies and misinformation.
Excellent analysis by Prof. Challaney, it is time regional bully China is dared and made to stand down, as it has been so far. China thinks that it can usurp other countries land with impunity.
China bully???? Should ask Bhutan or India’s neighbours for their view of India. That should be a better guage.
The implications of a bluff should always be taken from the context of a growing power that accumulates power, as the author admits.
Congratulations for writing this courageous colomn as you have done in earlier times. There is a sinister face of China that needs to be exposed.
Interesting to hear from the North Vietnamese perspective of the war.
In the Vietnam War, China and Russia did not send troops over Vietnam. Both China and Russia were the arm suppliers to the Vietnamese. You need to get the fact straight before engaging in history analysis.
Neel Lakhani you forgot 800 yr history.
India is never a nation, they were British Rajs with hundreds of languages, it need to be broken up and the land be returned to the Rajis and indigenous people in the subcontinent.. the British just used the Northern Rajs to rule the South and vice vesa.
India a phony democracy, still has to show a "caste certificate" for a government position a brutal discrimination disguised as affirmative action – like the Nazis. Mass illiterate peasants lining up in hot sun like underdeveloped Africa casting paper ballots non-understanding what they are doing, then returning to their miserable existence no hope tomorrow, many diving in lakes of garbage for survival. Half the India population still defecate in the open contaminated underground water w/ filth everywhere……do rat worship at Rajasthan……. people barely hanging onto outside of traveling trains …. 300 mil people without clean water and 300 mil illiterate adults….the planet biggest cesspool of corruption – beyond description…..decent freeway, airport & modern buildings infrastructure almost non-existence…..a country of endless festivals/holidays a productivity nightmare a pipe dream for Modi’s "Made in India"
Modi a Hindu nationalist now terrorizing the India Muslims, as governor responsible for Gujarat riot & massacre and was barred from entering the United States. His regime "overpaid" billions (kickbacks???) for fancy foreign weapons while the majority suffers, no wonder many NE States are rioting wanting independence (just a matter of time).
This professor should be so shameful that India is a country of "absolutely no accountability", with only a bunch of hubris braggadocio colonial mentality (inferiority complex) western puppets/ruling elites living high while the poor suffers. Ask anybody "behind close doors", people just look down on the Indians.
I wait and wait and wait china big war with India. I am angry with china’s government move.I hope indian get first fire of bullet. Let me see if china have the blood to push forward… let us see what is made of China and what is made of chinese communist pary.
sad
Free Tibet? Sure at same time whey don’t we
Free Punjab, Free Assam, Free Manipur,Free Nagaland, Free Bangal, Free Chattisgarh, Free Orrisa, Free Bihar, Free Andhra Pradesh, Free Jammu & Kashmir, Free Madhya Pradesh, Free Maharashtra
There are over 60+ armed separatist movements of India, I think all of them need some help.
what is the mughal empire ? HAHAHA
can see where yr research base on image not facts
Vamshee Devulapally R U Indian…please read yr history
since when India win a single war
"…a high-altitude plateau in the Himalayas that belongs to Bhutan, but is claimed by China"
That’s a blatant lie by a so-called "professor"!
It does not belong to Bhutan! The area has been under Chinese control in the modern era and Bhutan only started to dispute it in the 14th round negotiation with China, in Nov, 2000. (The Sino-Bhutanese border negotiation started in 1984)
"India, which guarantees tiny Bhutan’s security, quickly sent troops and equipment to halt the construction…"
But Chellaney conveniently omiited the fact that Bhutan has never asked India to intervene. There is no support whatsoever that Bhutan has asked India to send "roops and equipment to halt the construction".
India been constipated since 1962..maybe war is the only solution.. New Delhi seems to feel this is the right time to do so.
Vamshee Devulapally: That’s not bluffing. They withdrew after their strategic goal has been achived, esp. in the case of the 1962 sino-indian border war–"I came, I saw, I conquered".
Midhun Nair: don’t wish for something you will regret later. That’s what happened in 1962. And you may just get what you wish for…
Midhun Nair Who dare to attack India. India is a Superpower. She is the largest democracy. She is going to be the vital market for China to survive. Without Indian market, China is toast. Now you Chinese bully kneel down and ask for mercy. Such beautiful dream. Dream on.
Rajeev Chawla be patient. China is carefully planning where to strike. There are so many targets along the border. Stay put at Doklam, don’t be naughty and disappear. Don’t retreat Modi will get eggs on his face. Wait for the bullets to be delivered into your head.
Karthik Sunder the position of the Bhutanese government is to keep silent. No invitation to India to intervene after they saw through India’s treachery. Signalling to India they are not India’s protectorate by attending the PLA’s 70th celebration in New Delhi even though there is no diplomatic relation.
Karthik Sunder the disputed Sino Bhutanese area has been under China’s effective control since 1890. It is similar to the disputed South Tibet area under India’s effective control.
Why is India building roads in the disputed South Tibet region? Better stop or the Chinese will barged in and stop the works if India doesn’t listen to Chinese complains.
Again another Indian author who is so evasive about the 1890 Sikkim-China Convention. Indians want to accept the McMahon Line ,yet refuse to accept the result of 1890 convention where is the logic based?
It is a wonder that a professor who is (was??) respected for unbiased opinions could not but show his true colors in this regard. India has always been an aggressive country, swallowing up Sikkiim by manipulating its referendum, helping to harbor so called freedom fighters for Bangladesh (when it cannot tolerate freedom fighters for the northeast region!) and many other examples. In this case, it is clear that India is the aggressor. If this land was not disputed and belonged to Bhutan, India stepping in and helping makes sense and appropriate. This land is disputed and India has no right to enter and grab control.
Mr. Chellaney, throw out your personal and nationalistic mind and take the high road. Demonstrate that you are truly a world renowned professor and not just a two bit hustler who panders to your government even when they are clearly in the wrong!
Rejenal Pang : Bhutan has disputed that already, and according to treaties signed by China, there should be no changes made in such areas….so no road, building or anything. China is in violation fo that treaty.
Vamshee Devulapally indian r chicken dice only never see them put up a street fight….am i need those brown punching bag….
Falcon Dave the dispute area is no where near the indian soldier incursion into china boarder besides that the road been always there over a decade and china just widening it