A senior CIA analyst has offered a rare public glimpse into American intelligence analysis of China. Michael Collins, deputy assistant director and head of the agency’s East Asia mission center, believes more attention should be focused on China and that recent public angst about Russia is distracting America from the threat posed by China.
“There’s been a lot of talk about Russia as a competitor, a country that sees the liberal international order as something they don’t necessarily subscribe to, that is actively engaged in trying to undermine US influence in various areas around the world, and that has [the] capability to do it,” Collins said at a security forum in Aspen, Colorado.
“I would argue China applies to all three of those as well, and increasingly has more power to do far more about that issue.”
Collins noted that while Russia has been creating problems for the United States internationally, Moscow also finds US-China tensions to its liking.
“It very much helps Russia that China’s a problem for the United States,” he said. “So even when we’re just thinking about the Russia problem for the United States, I would submit that today it’s very convenient and helpful for the Russians to know that the Chinese also have a conflictual relationship with the United States and they can sort of back each other up.”
From the CIA’s point of view, China is undermining the US-led international order that has brought peace and stability in Asia over the past 40 years. Beijing is seeking to usurp American power and influence in the region.
China-US competition is not limited to Asia but is also visible around the world, Collins said, pointing to China’s recent launch of a major military base on the strategic Horn of Africa, in Djibouti. The Chinese base is located close to the US military’s based in the same nation.
One problem is China’s anti-democratic system.
“They have a different view of governance and what that means, and they are increasingly resorting to coercive, assertive practices to achieve their ends, things that we don’t subscribe to and others in the region don’t subscribe to,” Collins said. “For us to understand such issues as North Korea, South China Sea, trade, how China’s approaching these issues, we have to be mindful of that.”
Unlike Harvard scholar Graham Alison, however, Collins does not believe the US and China are destined for war. China, he says, does not appear to seek conflict with the US or other nations, and is seeking to maintain stable ties with Washington.
An additional problem for Beijing relates to what Collins termed “domestic political vulnerability and stability.”
“Unfortunately I think the Chinese have learned over the last several years that they have been able to take coercive approaches to moving into the South China Sea and in other areas – I could apply the same model to other issues, be it in the economic arena or the political arena around the area – and they’ve gotten away with it without much of a blow back”
“And to them, they have to keep that quite secure and to that end they need stability and close relations and stable relations with the United States,” he said.
On the South China Sea issue, Collins said China is emerging from what he termed an “aspirational pursuit of territorial claims” to an increasingly pressure-oriented policy. Chinese aspirations involve controlling the waterway for several reasons – military, economic, political and in terms of overall influence.
“It’s one thing for those things to be aspirational and another thing for them to think they are actually attainable,” Collins said. “And increasingly it appears to us that the Chinese think what they’re moving forward in the South China Sea, and you can apply this elsewhere as well, [is] increasingly attainable.”
China’s growing resolve is a worry for the CIA and Collins said it was fueled by inaction against Chinese hegemony in recent years.
“Unfortunately I think the Chinese have learned over the last several years that they have been able to take coercive approaches to moving into the South China Sea and in other areas – I could apply the same model to other issues, be it in the economic arena or the political arena around the area – and they’ve gotten away with it without much of a blow back,” he said.
The recent UN Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling against China’s claims to 90% of the South China Sea was met with scorn by Beijing.
“They learned from that, in our view, that they can defy international law and get away with it,” Collins said.
The analyst warned that China’s increasing boldness does not augur well for the United States or other countries in the region.
“The Chinese continue to think they can get away with and push the envelope on coercive, more assertive approaches to doing this,” he said. “We worry they will continue to push that envelope.”
Internally, in China, Collins also warned that Chinese leaders are pushing the narrative on the need to take control of disputed waters as “something that the Chinese need to achieve.”
In the past, China’s communist leaders limited their concept of core national interests to defending Communist Party rule and regaining control over Taiwan. Now, they have expanded the definition of core interests to include the South China Sea.
“And in doing so they’re creating domestic expectations that I worry they’re going to have to try to respond to, and in difficult ways,” he said.
Asked if the United States and China are playing a “game of chicken” – testing to see where each other’s red lines are located – Collins said the game is more on the Chinese side.
“The Chinese are learning what I call it a didactic foreign policy, a didactic approach to learning what it is they can get away with,” Collins said. “My hope is that the Chinese increasingly start to see that their behavior – and not just from us, from East Asia – is actually creating more negative consequences, net negative outcomes for their security interests and overall stability than the positive they think it gets them.”
Collins said the new administration of US President Donald Trump is in a critical period in terms of helping to shape China’s perception of the United States.
Beijing expects some degree of tension in its relations with the US but is uncertain at what point tension spills over into confrontation.
“I think the Chinese are trying to figure out the administration, and trying to figure out where are those areas where this administration may be willing to accept more tension and what areas perhaps not,” he said.
“I think there has been an over-optimism that engagement with China will have led to political reform by this point, and the reforms that we may have expected perhaps from the Chinese by engaging we’d start to see them by now. We haven’t”
One area where the Trump administration is pressing China hard is on rening in North Korea. The CIA believes that, as it provides the rogue state with some 90% of its trade, China could be doing much more. Collins said he believes Beijing supports the denuclearization of North Korea but has adopted a much longer timeline for when that takes place than the United States would like.
On China’s leadership, Collins said he expects supreme leader Xi Jinping to emerge from the upcoming Communist Party congress strengthened. “It looks like he’s going to come out of this party congress all the more powerful,” he said.China wants North Korea as a strategic buffer zone to keep the US and its allies at bay.
The CIA even believes Xi could seek to extend his rule beyond the established limit of two five-year terms, much as the late Deng Xiaoping was able to rule behind the scenes during the 1980s.
“Regardless of what position he’s in, given the allegiances he established, he’s going to remain probably pretty influential,” he said.
Collins also questioned one of the fundamental precepts of American foreign policy – that trade and engagement with China would produce democratic political reforms.
“I think there has been an over-optimism that engagement with China will have led to political reform by this point, and the reforms that we may have expected perhaps from the Chinese by engaging we’d start to see them by now. We haven’t.”
Se debe preguntar primero: ¿Quién hace las guerras por todo el mundo???
Evidentemente NO ES CHINA…si la CIA no comprende su intervensionismo mundial…no habrá forma de que comprenda que USA es y ha sidola fuente de todos los problemas mundiales. Por ventura, China lentamente pero de forma segura, está cambiando es esquema..falta la "remosión" del dolar como moneda de referencia, cosa que está a punto de suceder, y China y Rusia habrán logrado su propósito…ya veréis.
Ken…. Indians and people from Vietnam,Phillipins and japan will completely agree with the view expressed in this article….China is increasingly turning to a belief that they can get away with anything they want without any harm to them….what Americans want and what Americans will do in future we don’t know….but we have understood very well China is the greatest threat for us now…..and we are determined to stand in front of that threat….
the world should address,equality,racism is rife in western society,riots occur regularly in paris,the usa has regular racist incidents,the arab world is a mess after the bombing on iraq afghanistan and syria,the african continent is still in poverty and most african countries are in debt to the western countries,russia has past the period when the west abused it after the end of communism..the world is divided simply because the white man cannot be trusted..there is no equality application in the ruling powers..
"US order that has brought peace and stability over the past 40 years"
http://www.atimes.com/saudi-war-yemen-seen-us-state-terrorism/
China will bow down to a superior India. And Bhutan will give them a lot of headache and hairfall. And how sure are they that North Korea with its lunatic leader will not use their nuclear bomb against them.
Daryl Shen, you are right, it has been one $-Trillion blunder after another. The US involvement in 143 armed conflicts and 50+ regime changes has NOT made the world better. In their desperation, the US try regime changes in US friendly Turkey and The Philippines. The US War on terrorism has resulted in a massive increase in terrorism.
Japan and South Korea would be SIGNIFICANTLY safer without a military alliance with the US. All the US allies suffers due to US aggression and US sanctions. China is a military superpower that get stronger by the day, but the Chinese think before they use aggression and do not involve themselves in EVERY conflict under the sun. It seems Chinese aid, tourism, trade, and investments; achieve all the Chinese geopolitical strategies.
China and Russia should turn SCO into a military alliance as well, similar with NATO. They should also admit Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon into SCO. This will put an end to American interventions, otherwise the American imperialists will continue to destroy more and more countries.
"The recent UN Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling against China’s claims to 90% of the South China Sea was met with scorn by Beijing.". If u say it often enough enough people will believe it. Its not a UN court but an independent international tribunal who happened to have an office in Haque. But such details are not important to Collins, I guess. And this "“They have a different view of governance and what that means, and they are increasingly resorting to coercive, assertive practices to achieve their ends, things that we don’t subscribe to and others in the region don’t subscribe to,” Collins said". How do people get away with such statements after destroying Libya and Iraq?
Rajeev Chawla Tell that story to Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden, Marcos, etc. They were all proteges of USA and where are these smart people now? Furthermore is there any point in debating with a CIA troll on the internet. You are being paid while we are trying to uphold peace and have best wishes for India.
Russia and China formed a new partnership after the West had imposed sanctions on Russia’s taking over of Ukraine’ Crimea. Remember, Puttin had stayed in China for a few days and had signed a lot of treaties there! The Old School of the West has been using the 1950s’ text books while China and Russia have made a lot of adjustments in themselves and for themselves! Russia probably spent a lot of money paying the US media and Trump’s opponents to create detractions for China’s advancement in SE Asia.
Nuke China and problem solved
Ken, it’s either American vassal or China’s. I think India has decided that China will really not want India to stand on it’s own by blocking UNSC seat, supporting Pakistan and it’s terrorists. China has done nothing for India other than keeping the impbalance in trade, and keeping the border disputes in status quo for the last 4 or so decades. Going to Amecian side really does no harm…
"Moscow also finds US-China tensions to its liking."—-This comment means that a powerful China is a bigger threat to Russia than to America.
Russians have got good results in their rerime change, the communist China.
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India is now the world’s safest country (for cows)
Modi should spend more money on arms than on his favorite toilets.
The US spends more than 14 trillions in regime changes but the result is still not very satisfactory.
Couple of things to point out:
1. China did not undermine US-lead international order. That order has died with new generation of US war mongers for the past 20 years. Do I even need to go into the details? Don’t pretend US today is still the US 20 years ago. What does US expect, everyone else just sits by twiddle their thumbs while US make one gigantic mistake after another? Or US truely believes its the god blessed exceptional country that everyone else should always keep their heads down and submit?
2. Please spare us the shameless misleading name, "UN Permanent Court of Arbitration". UN has come out on record specificly saying that agency have NOTHING to do with UN, zip, nada, not UN. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1989486/united-nations-stresses-separation-hague-tribunal Having that namne just confirms its a sham agency pretending it has legal jurisdiction or authority of the UN, the fact Phil had to pay some 30m? for such a zero-authroity ruling confirms they are just legal scammers. Those lawyers really got too much hot water into their heads dreaming up authority where there are none. Without correctly granted authroity scammers can talk about lawerly jargon all day but they remain scammers, cue that even they admit there are no enforcement mechanism for their ruling, because they were never properly granted the authority!
3. Please spare us how you would like for China to adopt its own internal governance improvement. Your records on how nations are to adapt democracy aren’t exactly stellar:Decades of dictatorial rule in Taiwan, South Korea…dictator in Phillippines was flew out in your CIA helicoptor LMAO. Same with Iran. Some smoky stuff in Latin America you had it going. Iraq, Afghan, Libya are such spectacular success stories…NOT! In fact I think even god’s annoyed enough of you decided to humor you with a Donald Trump, looks like you still havent gotten the cue.
4. Chinese ractions in SCS are perfectly reasonable, even if not strictly conforming to UNCLOS. China had the first international rule comforming claim to the SCSs at the setltlemnt of WWII. ALL other claimants claimed it at a later date, and by the then definition, were unlawful intruders into China. So for 50 some odd years China was in the rightful claimant in SCSs. Its only changed in 1994 when UNCLOS was signed, and UNCLOS had so many caveats and vague definitions – this was purposely done so nations would actually sign on without fear of letting someone they don’t recognize to set the rule for them – and this is PERCISELY what happeend with the sham court ruling. China was in perfect right to have rejected it.
As for your fear of Chinese military installations in SCS, maybe you forgot its yourself that drew up the military concept of "first island chain" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_Chain_Strategy . Then came your 2011 military centric "pivot" to Asia. Do you know what else happened in 2011? You launched, by all international definitions, an ILLEGAL military intervention in Libya and toppled a soverign country. What did you expect China would do?
All the rest of your mumblings can all be refuted but they are not worth my time. I just refute the most important parts.
Inidans should take note. USA and the CIA will not allow any nation to challenge it. There is no chance for India to grow powerful as long as it chooses to be a vassal of USA that may be sacrificed to suit USA. US sanctions against Russia are actually to prevent EU nations developing close trade ties with Russia.