A senior CIA analyst has offered a rare public glimpse into American intelligence analysis of China. Michael Collins, deputy assistant director and head of the agency’s East Asia mission center, believes more attention should be focused on China and that recent public angst about Russia is distracting America from the threat posed by China.
“There’s been a lot of talk about Russia as a competitor, a country that sees the liberal international order as something they don’t necessarily subscribe to, that is actively engaged in trying to undermine US influence in various areas around the world, and that has [the] capability to do it,” Collins said at a security forum in Aspen, Colorado.
“I would argue China applies to all three of those as well, and increasingly has more power to do far more about that issue.”
Collins noted that while Russia has been creating problems for the United States internationally, Moscow also finds US-China tensions to its liking.
“It very much helps Russia that China’s a problem for the United States,” he said. “So even when we’re just thinking about the Russia problem for the United States, I would submit that today it’s very convenient and helpful for the Russians to know that the Chinese also have a conflictual relationship with the United States and they can sort of back each other up.”
From the CIA’s point of view, China is undermining the US-led international order that has brought peace and stability in Asia over the past 40 years. Beijing is seeking to usurp American power and influence in the region.
China-US competition is not limited to Asia but is also visible around the world, Collins said, pointing to China’s recent launch of a major military base on the strategic Horn of Africa, in Djibouti. The Chinese base is located close to the US military’s based in the same nation.
One problem is China’s anti-democratic system.
“They have a different view of governance and what that means, and they are increasingly resorting to coercive, assertive practices to achieve their ends, things that we don’t subscribe to and others in the region don’t subscribe to,” Collins said. “For us to understand such issues as North Korea, South China Sea, trade, how China’s approaching these issues, we have to be mindful of that.”
Unlike Harvard scholar Graham Alison, however, Collins does not believe the US and China are destined for war. China, he says, does not appear to seek conflict with the US or other nations, and is seeking to maintain stable ties with Washington.
An additional problem for Beijing relates to what Collins termed “domestic political vulnerability and stability.”
“Unfortunately I think the Chinese have learned over the last several years that they have been able to take coercive approaches to moving into the South China Sea and in other areas – I could apply the same model to other issues, be it in the economic arena or the political arena around the area – and they’ve gotten away with it without much of a blow back”
“And to them, they have to keep that quite secure and to that end they need stability and close relations and stable relations with the United States,” he said.
On the South China Sea issue, Collins said China is emerging from what he termed an “aspirational pursuit of territorial claims” to an increasingly pressure-oriented policy. Chinese aspirations involve controlling the waterway for several reasons – military, economic, political and in terms of overall influence.
“It’s one thing for those things to be aspirational and another thing for them to think they are actually attainable,” Collins said. “And increasingly it appears to us that the Chinese think what they’re moving forward in the South China Sea, and you can apply this elsewhere as well, [is] increasingly attainable.”
China’s growing resolve is a worry for the CIA and Collins said it was fueled by inaction against Chinese hegemony in recent years.
“Unfortunately I think the Chinese have learned over the last several years that they have been able to take coercive approaches to moving into the South China Sea and in other areas – I could apply the same model to other issues, be it in the economic arena or the political arena around the area – and they’ve gotten away with it without much of a blow back,” he said.
The recent UN Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling against China’s claims to 90% of the South China Sea was met with scorn by Beijing.
“They learned from that, in our view, that they can defy international law and get away with it,” Collins said.
The analyst warned that China’s increasing boldness does not augur well for the United States or other countries in the region.
“The Chinese continue to think they can get away with and push the envelope on coercive, more assertive approaches to doing this,” he said. “We worry they will continue to push that envelope.”
Internally, in China, Collins also warned that Chinese leaders are pushing the narrative on the need to take control of disputed waters as “something that the Chinese need to achieve.”
In the past, China’s communist leaders limited their concept of core national interests to defending Communist Party rule and regaining control over Taiwan. Now, they have expanded the definition of core interests to include the South China Sea.
“And in doing so they’re creating domestic expectations that I worry they’re going to have to try to respond to, and in difficult ways,” he said.
Asked if the United States and China are playing a “game of chicken” – testing to see where each other’s red lines are located – Collins said the game is more on the Chinese side.
“The Chinese are learning what I call it a didactic foreign policy, a didactic approach to learning what it is they can get away with,” Collins said. “My hope is that the Chinese increasingly start to see that their behavior – and not just from us, from East Asia – is actually creating more negative consequences, net negative outcomes for their security interests and overall stability than the positive they think it gets them.”
Collins said the new administration of US President Donald Trump is in a critical period in terms of helping to shape China’s perception of the United States.
Beijing expects some degree of tension in its relations with the US but is uncertain at what point tension spills over into confrontation.
“I think the Chinese are trying to figure out the administration, and trying to figure out where are those areas where this administration may be willing to accept more tension and what areas perhaps not,” he said.
“I think there has been an over-optimism that engagement with China will have led to political reform by this point, and the reforms that we may have expected perhaps from the Chinese by engaging we’d start to see them by now. We haven’t”
One area where the Trump administration is pressing China hard is on rening in North Korea. The CIA believes that, as it provides the rogue state with some 90% of its trade, China could be doing much more. Collins said he believes Beijing supports the denuclearization of North Korea but has adopted a much longer timeline for when that takes place than the United States would like.
On China’s leadership, Collins said he expects supreme leader Xi Jinping to emerge from the upcoming Communist Party congress strengthened. “It looks like he’s going to come out of this party congress all the more powerful,” he said.China wants North Korea as a strategic buffer zone to keep the US and its allies at bay.
The CIA even believes Xi could seek to extend his rule beyond the established limit of two five-year terms, much as the late Deng Xiaoping was able to rule behind the scenes during the 1980s.
“Regardless of what position he’s in, given the allegiances he established, he’s going to remain probably pretty influential,” he said.
Collins also questioned one of the fundamental precepts of American foreign policy – that trade and engagement with China would produce democratic political reforms.
“I think there has been an over-optimism that engagement with China will have led to political reform by this point, and the reforms that we may have expected perhaps from the Chinese by engaging we’d start to see them by now. We haven’t.”
Inidans should take note. USA and the CIA will not allow any nation to challenge it. There is no chance for India to grow powerful as long as it chooses to be a vassal of USA that may be sacrificed to suit USA. US sanctions against Russia are actually to prevent EU nations developing close trade ties with Russia.
Couple of things to point out:
1. China did not undermine US-lead international order. That order has died with new generation of US war mongers for the past 20 years. Do I even need to go into the details? Don’t pretend US today is still the US 20 years ago. What does US expect, everyone else just sits by twiddle their thumbs while US make one gigantic mistake after another? Or US truely believes its the god blessed exceptional country that everyone else should always keep their heads down and submit?
2. Please spare us the shameless misleading name, "UN Permanent Court of Arbitration". UN has come out on record specificly saying that agency have NOTHING to do with UN, zip, nada, not UN. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1989486/united-nations-stresses-separation-hague-tribunal Having that namne just confirms its a sham agency pretending it has legal jurisdiction or authority of the UN, the fact Phil had to pay some 30m? for such a zero-authroity ruling confirms they are just legal scammers. Those lawyers really got too much hot water into their heads dreaming up authority where there are none. Without correctly granted authroity scammers can talk about lawerly jargon all day but they remain scammers, cue that even they admit there are no enforcement mechanism for their ruling, because they were never properly granted the authority!
3. Please spare us how you would like for China to adopt its own internal governance improvement. Your records on how nations are to adapt democracy aren’t exactly stellar:Decades of dictatorial rule in Taiwan, South Korea…dictator in Phillippines was flew out in your CIA helicoptor LMAO. Same with Iran. Some smoky stuff in Latin America you had it going. Iraq, Afghan, Libya are such spectacular success stories…NOT! In fact I think even god’s annoyed enough of you decided to humor you with a Donald Trump, looks like you still havent gotten the cue.
4. Chinese ractions in SCS are perfectly reasonable, even if not strictly conforming to UNCLOS. China had the first international rule comforming claim to the SCSs at the setltlemnt of WWII. ALL other claimants claimed it at a later date, and by the then definition, were unlawful intruders into China. So for 50 some odd years China was in the rightful claimant in SCSs. Its only changed in 1994 when UNCLOS was signed, and UNCLOS had so many caveats and vague definitions – this was purposely done so nations would actually sign on without fear of letting someone they don’t recognize to set the rule for them – and this is PERCISELY what happeend with the sham court ruling. China was in perfect right to have rejected it.
As for your fear of Chinese military installations in SCS, maybe you forgot its yourself that drew up the military concept of "first island chain" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_Chain_Strategy . Then came your 2011 military centric "pivot" to Asia. Do you know what else happened in 2011? You launched, by all international definitions, an ILLEGAL military intervention in Libya and toppled a soverign country. What did you expect China would do?
All the rest of your mumblings can all be refuted but they are not worth my time. I just refute the most important parts.
The US spends more than 14 trillions in regime changes but the result is still not very satisfactory.
Modi should spend more money on arms than on his favorite toilets.
India is now the world’s safest country (for cows)
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Russians have got good results in their rerime change, the communist China.
"Moscow also finds US-China tensions to its liking."—-This comment means that a powerful China is a bigger threat to Russia than to America.
Ken, it’s either American vassal or China’s. I think India has decided that China will really not want India to stand on it’s own by blocking UNSC seat, supporting Pakistan and it’s terrorists. China has done nothing for India other than keeping the impbalance in trade, and keeping the border disputes in status quo for the last 4 or so decades. Going to Amecian side really does no harm…
Nuke China and problem solved
Russia and China formed a new partnership after the West had imposed sanctions on Russia’s taking over of Ukraine’ Crimea. Remember, Puttin had stayed in China for a few days and had signed a lot of treaties there! The Old School of the West has been using the 1950s’ text books while China and Russia have made a lot of adjustments in themselves and for themselves! Russia probably spent a lot of money paying the US media and Trump’s opponents to create detractions for China’s advancement in SE Asia.
Rajeev Chawla Tell that story to Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden, Marcos, etc. They were all proteges of USA and where are these smart people now? Furthermore is there any point in debating with a CIA troll on the internet. You are being paid while we are trying to uphold peace and have best wishes for India.
"The recent UN Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling against China’s claims to 90% of the South China Sea was met with scorn by Beijing.". If u say it often enough enough people will believe it. Its not a UN court but an independent international tribunal who happened to have an office in Haque. But such details are not important to Collins, I guess. And this "“They have a different view of governance and what that means, and they are increasingly resorting to coercive, assertive practices to achieve their ends, things that we don’t subscribe to and others in the region don’t subscribe to,” Collins said". How do people get away with such statements after destroying Libya and Iraq?
China and Russia should turn SCO into a military alliance as well, similar with NATO. They should also admit Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon into SCO. This will put an end to American interventions, otherwise the American imperialists will continue to destroy more and more countries.
Daryl Shen, you are right, it has been one $-Trillion blunder after another. The US involvement in 143 armed conflicts and 50+ regime changes has NOT made the world better. In their desperation, the US try regime changes in US friendly Turkey and The Philippines. The US War on terrorism has resulted in a massive increase in terrorism.
Japan and South Korea would be SIGNIFICANTLY safer without a military alliance with the US. All the US allies suffers due to US aggression and US sanctions. China is a military superpower that get stronger by the day, but the Chinese think before they use aggression and do not involve themselves in EVERY conflict under the sun. It seems Chinese aid, tourism, trade, and investments; achieve all the Chinese geopolitical strategies.
China will bow down to a superior India. And Bhutan will give them a lot of headache and hairfall. And how sure are they that North Korea with its lunatic leader will not use their nuclear bomb against them.
"US order that has brought peace and stability over the past 40 years"
http://www.atimes.com/saudi-war-yemen-seen-us-state-terrorism/
the world should address,equality,racism is rife in western society,riots occur regularly in paris,the usa has regular racist incidents,the arab world is a mess after the bombing on iraq afghanistan and syria,the african continent is still in poverty and most african countries are in debt to the western countries,russia has past the period when the west abused it after the end of communism..the world is divided simply because the white man cannot be trusted..there is no equality application in the ruling powers..
Ken…. Indians and people from Vietnam,Phillipins and japan will completely agree with the view expressed in this article….China is increasingly turning to a belief that they can get away with anything they want without any harm to them….what Americans want and what Americans will do in future we don’t know….but we have understood very well China is the greatest threat for us now…..and we are determined to stand in front of that threat….
Se debe preguntar primero: ¿Quién hace las guerras por todo el mundo???
Evidentemente NO ES CHINA…si la CIA no comprende su intervensionismo mundial…no habrá forma de que comprenda que USA es y ha sidola fuente de todos los problemas mundiales. Por ventura, China lentamente pero de forma segura, está cambiando es esquema..falta la "remosión" del dolar como moneda de referencia, cosa que está a punto de suceder, y China y Rusia habrán logrado su propósito…ya veréis.
I am wondering one thought————-who left the States in charge of the WORLD————who made us King? Please help me out with thiis thought——–when was the last time China invaded a sovereign country? Tibet, possibly———–OK I will give you Tibet———–but please when was the last time China invaded a country and changed the leadership. I will tell the Chinese HATERS this salient FACT———China wants to make business not war—–not regime change. No China isn’t as arrogant,foolish, and stupid as the Americans. The question I would like to ask Micael Collins is when the Chinese become the number #1 economy in the world how will that play in DC———-because no matter what the Chinese HATERS say———–China doesn’t care———-they keep marching forward. Is China the perfect country in the world——–no way——but look at what they have done in 40 years while the Americans basically stood still——————it is breath taking!!
You may have just won the prize for the stupidest person on internet!
[1/2] It is not only US but the whole world that needs to be very worried about China rather the brutal & scrupleless "Han Communist Despotism of China",the true Axis of Evil in in the 21st century. While the 20th century witnessed the rise of collosal systems of Evil from which monsters like Hitler, Stalin & Mao were born. The systems authored by "Herr Fuhrer" Hitler & that from which "Dear Comrade" Stalin was born, both died an inglourious death in the 20th century itself. However the one fathered by Chairman Mao survived the 20th century to become the most potent & most dangerous one of the 21st century.
….the brutal totalitarian Communist Chinese (rather Han Communist Despotism to be precise) Despotism has it’s hands drenched in the blood of tens of millions of fellow Chinese. It’s crass ‘nouve rich’ attitude and boorish bluster is built on slave labour of it’s own ‘citizens’ whom the corrupt scrupleless & inhuman Communist dictatorship doesn’t think worthy of having even an independent judiciary and doesn’t trust them with a free press or rights to have an independent opinion less so express it – so less said the better about a right to elect a government or kind of government for themselves.
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What it does to it’s non Han population is not hidden either from anyone despite the best efforts at trying to suppress the information ~ there are more Han Chinese pushed and settled in Tibet by Beijing than there are native Tibetans surviving!!!!..And this enormous demgraphic change was a achieved in less than two generations or within 50 years it’s invasion & illegal annexation of that Buddhist nation : Surprisingly the cultural and spiritual identity in Mahayana Buddhism never came in between while the the charitable, tolerant and compassionate Communist war machine and administration went about or goes about systematically destroying the Tibetan people, Tibetan culture, Tibetan identity and the Tibetan architecture especially historical monastaries, temples, palaces et al which ought to be priceless protected world heritage sites! Neither did it come in the way of plundering of the land of its natural resources either! Let us for brevity’s sake leave aside the convenient appropriation of the philosophical system born and matured in India (Mahayana Buddhism) while shamelessly passing it off as something of an indeginous Chinese origin!…..
Same goes for Uighar minority in the North Western province of Sinkiang. And the author of this article goes ahead making a despicable assumption that people of the myriad other bordering nations including Bhutan are blind, stupid, ignorant, delusional and suicidal fools who will run to get into the venomous embrace of a notorious poisonous snake so that it can bless them by devouring them the way it has devoured their real kith & kin in Tibet!! Wow!!
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[2/2]
On the global level Chinese are one of the most despised ‘foreigners’ at par with the radical Islamists though not for the same reason. The phenomenonal digust that Chinese evoke wherever a local dispensation has been foolish enough to invite them, invest and run the show – is borne out of, on one hand, the immense inferiority complex of Chinese who the communist party crooks chose to send – their insecurities complete with the Big Brother watching syndrome (and probably guilt conciousness too) doesn’t allow them to interact freely with their hosts instead turns them into introverted bullies with the purse and the purse strings who tackle their insecurities by acting like uncouth racists with shamess egomaniacal tyrants with both the a native workers a employed with them and I also the local populace which is economically not so well off. While on the other hand, of course, the pathetic reputation Chinese companies, businessmen, traders, entrepreneurs, skilled workers (engineers, supervisors managers et al) have earned for themselves over the decades in most part of the globe ~ the stereotypical image of a greedy, avaricious kleptocratic plunderer, the emotionless and scrupleless Chinese robots devoid of any morals or ethics, compassion or humanity whatsover but completely devoted to one God – Money – maximum profit by hook or by crook that deceptively.entraps with lure of investment and then gets down to looting and plundering with impunity without giving anything back except a bad taste in the mouth by his bad behaviour and ugly conduct, finally running off after having destroyed the natural resources whether it is in Africa or South America or in Asia – it’s the same story everywhere.
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In the commity of nations China is a grudgingly accepted untrustworthy thug nation much needed and tolerated on account of it turning it’s billion plus population into slave workers that produce and satisfy the global demands for material goods at a much lower price than any other nation on earth is willing to force it’s people to do – which in turn also allows various international corporations make humongous profits by keeping the prices low (and without being encumbered with needs of the work force, the rights and welfare of the labourers et al) along with also making the slave owners ie.the corrupt mandarins of CPC and PLA into millionaires and billionaires as well. Even the much loathed colonialists couldn’t plan out, implement and run a such collosal racket of gross exploitation and remorselessly naked capitalism as the "Communist" Party of China & "People’s Liberation" Army has been able to :~: that nomenclature (Communist, People’s, Liberation !!!) though are good enough to make ‘irony’ itself commit suicide out of embarrassment and disgrace!!! ………………..
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Any surprises then that this infamous Chinese Communist/Slavist Dictatorship also happens to be the biggest underhand supplier of arms & ammunition to almost every criminal syndicate, drug cartel, poaching racket, terrorist organisation, insurgent groups, bandit gangs, sea pirates, war lords and rogue states in the world!? Or that it is the ring leader of the world’s worst and largest Nuclear Proliferation Regime? Or that it is itself the biggest violater of intellectual property rights, biggest thief stealing ideas, designs and other fruit of labours of individuals and institutions without acknowledgement or a single penny as reimbursement while running the world’s worst piracy racket at the sametime?
Or it is at all surprising that this is a unique nation in the world that shares borders with 12 or 14 other nations and has a problems over them with not just each and everyone of them (where it is blatantly wrong in each and every case) but actually having border issues with some 23 or 24 countries in total!!!!!
So Any Wonder at all that it is also the only nation with sizeable populatio (1/5th of humanity) huge territory (third largest?) enormous amount of money power (recently earned quick wealth) and significant military power (largest in size as far as manpower is concerned but with a shady track record though) as well but has not any other sovereign nation in the world that it can call itself a friend of less so an ally EXCEPT two if it’s own client states ie. North Korea and Pakistan ~ both bankrupt parasitical beggars, failed rogue states, both officially designated "global pariah" !!!
Above is copied from a reply posted to an article published by the ‘Global Times’ a propaganda mouthpiece of the Han Communist Dictatorship in Beijing .
Protégés?!?…Smart people?!?… and you’re accusing him of "trolling"? You should be wearing a sign to for-warn people of your stupidity.
Falk Rovik, the Chinese haven’t seen much war because since the beginning of the PLA they’re only recently capable of engaging in conflict that wouldn’t result in their immediate destruction. The US is allied to half of SE Asia, so if china ever started conflict, the US would quickly repel it. So in the past this has kept china from engaging in conflicts with its neighbors, not a superior ideology. US allies in south east Asia have flourished, look at South Korea, Japan, Taiwan… so I don’t understand your comment about that. I think we’re going to see much more conflict involving china in years to come. Question is going to be, what is US going to do about it. Communism won’t rest at the total domination of china and the Sea of Japan. And once their aggression spills into the whole of SE Asia, those countries will look to the US for protection. I do agree for the most part with the first half of your statement. The US does spend way to much time meddling in foreign countries and experimenting with nation building when the track record is terrible at this. However I can’t say Russia or China are any better. They both try similar tactics and are often much more brutal in their approach, but are less capable overall.
I suppose you believe the land grabbing was legal, KS Chin?
The court you’re referring too.. The Permanent Court of Arbitration is an official United Nations Observer with 121 member states…resolves disputes between member states, international organizations, or private parties arising out of international agreements. The cases span a range of legal issues involving territorial and maritime boundaries, sovereignty, human rights, international investment, and international and regional trade. But I guess that’s not official enough for you. Like the rest of china, you’re going to say "it’s the ruling that’s not legal"?!
Ben Ro, how about Vietnam war, or Korean war? Did the US win there?
" US-led international order that has brought peace and stability in Asia over the past 40 years." , AT you should have put that line at the top to stop us from going through all the hilarious shit.
Ben Ro It has no standing with the UN. So how can it be legal? And please note the decision of that court is non binding. If that is legal, so is the invasion of Iraq and destruction of Libya.
What India needs is to "make in India" policy more attractive to all multinational investors, at present starved of trade, makers, profits, & there future ambitions. India needs industrialisation, with cheapest labourers, power, infrastructure, internal market, & the adjoining booming Asian & south Asian markets. India means business & profits, should be the next stick & carrots for all investors with surplus cash in the true honest sence.
May he thought that one until you stab the back if your friend someday. Without knowing you want the price for yourself.
Your know how to the situation atleast you have seen the bigger situations.
"They are increasingly resorting to coercive, assertive practices to achieve their ends, things that we don’t subscribe to" … of course, the CIA/State Dept. has NEVER used coercive practices, LOL!
There are also Indian terrorists and they are even petty and callous than the Pakistanis!
US fundamental problem is her Debt >$20 trillion dollar and her $ paper dollar not backed by gold and her Govt owned by foreigners that"s not helping US citizen.Her Banking system is basically bankrup that is being shored up by her global militarism and plunder and printing paper money.Russia and china are trying to introduce fair global trade and security and sovereignity.USA dont like it!
I’m surprised ,every time I saw an article in u tube about china there is always a ken Nguyen ,then I remember that China spends $10B to spread their propagand and pay their internet trolls,and ure sure one of them
John Ang the US can win the Vietnam war but they retreated because of protests,the Korean war if MacArthur wasn’t replaced as commander of the UN forces Korea could have been liberated under democracy and cities in China would have been nuked like Nagasaki and Hiroshima,it was the mistake of Truman that divided the koreans
Haha just like the PLA who spends 70% of their training listening to propagada’s of the CCP