“We Taiwanese could be headed for a compromise over the fate of our country on China’s terms”, writes Enoch Wu in the pages of the New York Times this week.
“Beijing’s belligerence presents an existential threat to Taiwan, a country that Chinese leaders have long vowed to take by force if they deem necessary. For years, the political establishment in Taipei has delegated responsibility for responding to Beijing to the United States.”
The editorial exposes perhaps the most fraught bilateral issue in US-China relations, one of far greater gravity than that of territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
The US has long maintained tacit support for Taiwan’s de facto independence, despite the fact that any statement in support of the territory’s status as an independent nation would be considered an act of war by Beijing.
As China’s power grows, so too does the volume of many voices in Taiwan of people who feel less and less connected to a Chinese identity. This was on display when voters elected Taiwan’s current independence-flirting president Tsai Ing-wen – though since taking office she has espoused support only for maintaining the awkward status quo.
Will China’s growing economic and military might eventually lead to some sort of conclusion to the cross-strait conundrum? Let’s hope for the sake of peace and stability we don’t find out the answer any time soon.
Well, situation came about today because US (again) intervened in another country’s civil war, propped up a losing party, the guaranteed their separate existence on taiwan island for some 70 odd years.
If Taiwan ever becomes independent like this, can the same thing repeat when other powers deem its convenient for them to do so?
“The US has long maintained tacit support for Taiwan’s de facto independence, despite the fact that any statement in support of the territory’s status as an independent nation would be considered an act of war by Beijing.”
This is incorrect.
The US willingly entered into agreement with the PRC after 1979, not due to threat of war. The US willingly accepted one-China in order to have diplomatic relation with the PRC, and severed diplomatic relations Taiwan.
“The US acknowledges the Chinese claim that Taiwan is a part of China”
Acknowledge: to recognize the claim or authority of
Thus, the US recognizes the Chinese claim that Taiwan is a part of China.
The crux of the Taiwan relation act is that it was ratified without Taiwan’s participation; hence, the US does not and will never know whether Taiwan will choose to start a war over negotiation for a niche within China. This will be additional to the basic American morality of not pushing Taiwan into the inferno by starting a war for Taiwan.
Indeed, Taiwan’s political future either as status quo or independence is quite bleak, but Taiwan will continue to prosper as an autonomous part of China, like Hong Kong.
Absent the visceral reality of a war having already started, the US will never start a war that will push Taiwan, possibly Japan, into the inferno. The US will have this modicum of decency; hence, those in Taiwan who do not want to be martyrs need not fear American recklessness. There simply will be no military option for the US as long as a war is possible but has not started.
Greater and greater threat without execution from the Chinese mainland, meaning comprehensive national development, is and will continue to be very effective for the PRC. In another 20-30 years, the US will be militarily paralyzed; there will be no military options for the USA to aid Taiwan for its political future.
The US would just use its relation with the PRC to help Taiwan negotiate for the best deal; the PRC will never accept less than a time-table for reunification into a unitary government with Taiwan as a local government. There will be no federation that could lead to Taiwan drifting away later.
The question that really requires thoughts is whether the Chinese mainland will have effective means to coerce Taiwan without starting a war, comes 2040 or later. Will Taiwan have the chance and the need to choose between starting a war and negotiating for autonomy within China? The answer is certainly yes.
The Chinese mainland has at least two trump cards. The first will likely be very sufficient.
The first trump card will be to target Taiwan’s immigration defense with massive civilian human flesh. Comes 2040 or later, one would begin to see Chinese civilians in great numbers on boats, best with families with children, moored at Taiwan’s harbors. Taiwan’s immigration defense will simply be breached unless Taiwan negotiates. Taiwan will very likely choose negotiation over starting a war; the US can and will do nothing.
The second trump card, in the very unlikely event still needed, will be to target Taiwan’s extremely vulnerable energy supply with extremely limited force, simply to cause great energy uncertainty that will greatly affect Taiwan.
The Chinese mainland is likely winning over Taiwan; there is likely paltry little that can change the course of reunification.
The world will very much want the Taiwan saga to end peacefully. With each passing decade, the danger of the Taiwan saga will cause greater and greater anxiety in Asia and globally; any unrealistic means to thwart China’s peaceful coercion on Taiwan could lead to war and devastation in the future. The world will increasing desire an end to the Taiwan saga.
The Chinese economy—this is the crux. If the Chinese economy does not implode, reunification across the Taiwan’s strait under peaceful coercion is almost certain, say by 2040 or shortly after.
Asia is at peace; this is why a small mad country NK in 2017 is giving the military giant so much problems. Just imagine China in 2040, with Asia still at peace.