Hyperbole and daydreaming have been two distinguishing traits of Indian foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration.
The government resorts to unreal exaggeration to emphasize the real situation, while the reality gets blurred and is often substituted by a visionary fantasy, especially one of happy thoughts, hopes or ambitions.
Nowhere is this more evident than when it comes to Modi’s policies toward China. It’s time to abandon the three-year-old notion that calibrated moves to create irritants in the bilateral relationship will incrementally compel Beijing to negotiate on India’s terms.
The assumptions on which Indian policies toward China have been predicated – the US “pivot to Asia” – have come unstuck. Yet, Modi’s government is unsure how to adjust to the shift in Washington’s Asia strategies under Donald Trump.
Read: Dalai Lama visit to disputed India border to go ahead
There are three four major templates where adjustments are needed. But, fundamentally, India needs to think through a new strategy toward China.
The Modi government gleefully adopted an idea (which was originally handed down by the Obama administration) that India deserved to seek membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) — nations that have agreed to a set of rules to prevent proliferation of materials used to build nuclear weapons.
In all probability, the Obama administration could not have overlooked that China would take a principled opposition to the idea, given India’s refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Again, the Modi government and the Obama administration embarked on a joint venture to get the Pakistani terrorist Masood Azhar included in the UN watchlist. This was even though China’s consent as a veto-holding member of the Security Council would be needed for that, which was unlikely to be forthcoming given the imperatives of China’s own cooperation with the Pakistani military on counter-terrorism.
Modi himself, surprisingly enough, raised both issues – NSG membership and Azhar – with President Xi Jinping in two separate meetings and thereafter Delhi publicized these highly sensitive exchanges that were of a confidential nature. The intention was apparently to corner Beijing.
Meanwhile, a third issue appeared in the nature of India’s opposition to the US$54 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The Modi government blithely resurrected what had been up until two years ago a mere propaganda plank – namely, India’s notional claim to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.
The Modi government made it an issue of territorial sovereignty and went on to allege that China had violated Indian sovereignty by implementing the economic corridor.
These irritants and the ensuing steady decline in India-China relations gave a raison d’etre to the pro-US tilt in the Modi government’s foreign policies. The Obama administration happily played along.
The Modi government was confident that under a Hillary Clinton presidency, the US pivot strategy in Asia would get a new cutting edge and that Beijing would eventually have no option but to compromise with India’s tough line.
Incredibly enough, just a fortnight before last November’s US election, the Modi government hosted an unprecedented visit by the then-American ambassador Richard Verma to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, the disputed border region with China. Delhi also taunted Beijing by disclosing six months in advance that an official visit by the Dalai Lama to Arunachal Pradesh was also on the cards for April.
Delhi hoisted the petard to signal to Beijing that there was going to be big trouble once Clinton was sworn in as president.
Alas, the calculus has dramatically shifted. Hillary and Verma have gone into retirement. And Trump is jettisoning the pivot strategy and is eagerly planning a meeting with Xi to explore the terms of a brave new Sino-American engagement that boosts his “America First” agenda.
A historic meeting between Trump and Xi that could rewrite the power dynamic in Asia is on the horizon.
To be sure, the Modi government also began a corresponding move to switch to non-belligerent mode vis-à-vis China. Hyperbole of another kind stressing “convergence” with China even where none exists – such as over Afghanistan – has taken over.
But on Friday, the foreign ministry in Beijing drew the red line:
“The Indian side knows very well the seriousness of the Dalai issue and the sensitiveness of the boundary question. Under such circumstances, India’s invitation to the Dalai Lama to the disputed areas between China and India will bring severe damage to peace and stability of the border areas and China-India relations.
“China is firmly opposed to the Dalai Lama’s activities in the disputed areas between China and India and has expressed its concern to the Indian side several times. We urge again the Indian side to honor its commitments on the Tibet-related issues, follow the important agreement between the two sides on the boundary question, refrain from actions that would further complicate the question, not provide a stage for the anti-China separatist activities of the Dalai group, and ensure the sound and steady growth of China-India relationship.”
At the same time, veteran diplomat Dai Bingguo floated a seemingly conciliatory idea that the two countries could be at the “gate” of a final settlement of the border dispute as a whole if only India “takes care of China’s concerns” over Tawang in an overall spirit of “meaningful and mutually acceptable adjustments to their respective positions on the boundary question in order to reach a package settlement.”
How this complex mix pans out remains uncertain. The Dalai Lama could always fall sick and plead inability to travel to Arunachal Pradesh. However, Beijing has thrown the gauntlet at Modi.
Beijing seems to be saying that if Modi is the strong man he claims he is, and can take difficult decisions, why settle for a mere shadow play involving the Dalai Lama? Why not take the bull by its horns and come to the real stuff – the intractable border dispute itself?
Paradoxically, while Modi is indeed a strong man, he is not strong enough to jettison India’s unrealistic, maximalist stance on the border dispute. A “package settlement” demands give-and-take. But if Modi makes concessions, his acolytes in the Hindu nationalist constituency and the Indian security establishment will feel let down.
Simply put, Modi is not strong enough to take bold, visionary decisions. He must, therefore, settle for hyperbole and daydreaming as the stuff of India’s China policy.
India has always been non-aligned, even when both the U.S. and the old USSR were at the height of their powers. Why should it be any different with China?
China seems to have a problem with everyone. Below are just the recent litany of warnings.
– China warns India to stay off its ‘own colony’ Sri Lanka
– China warns S. Korea of ‘consequences’ over THAAD land swap deal
– China Warns Bitcoin Exchanges
– China warns United States over South China Sea deployment
– China, North Korea clash over nuclear and chemical weapons
– China warns Japan over report on Taiwan-related issue
– China Warns Korean Entertainment Giant That Its Part In U.S. Missile Deal Is “Playing With Fire”
– China warns not to give ‘tips’ at Vietnam border after beating claim
– China drills again near Taiwan as island warns of threat
– Philippines and China in diplomatic stalemate over SCS
– China warns UK relations are at ‘historical juncture’ over Hinkley Point
– China warns Germany over Aixtron approval issue
– China warns Sri Lanka about protests in Hambantota
– China border dispute with Bhutan pending, no diplomatic relations
– Vietnam slams Chinese fishing ban in South China Sea
– Differences between South China Sea claimants China, ASEAN, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand
– Indonesia to raise prospect of joint patrols with Australia in South China Sea
– Clashes killed at least 160 in Myanmar-China border, says army
– China Warns Israel Not To Sell AWACS To India
Modi may not have spine to take bold decisions or his political constituency may not allow him to do so. But sir is Modi singularly responsible for our foreign policy? If not, then our experienced bureaucrats are too responsible for being timid and not able to figure out how to deal with shrewd Chinese realpolitik. Sir boundary problem may be like Chess which involves give and take, but remember Chinese are masters of Wei Qi which teaches the art of strategic encirclement
Is he talking for China or America? Definitely not for India !!!!
One Tyagi and this author are "fattus"
Srinivasa Nanduri Economic sink hole, debt trap and Guarranteed Sovereign loans are beyond the Pakistanis as this desperation to attract investment is leading them to a de-facto economic paralysis. If the polity of pakistan could not see the obvious from the history of chinese engagement in Africa and Srilanka and Myanmar they for sure are doomed to repeat mistakes. The CPEC multilateral economic initiative has antagonism, belligerence and corruption as its bedrock instead of transparency, goodwill and reciprocity which is a sure sort recepie for dissastor.
Vikram Reddy Good Analysis. India is working on military modernization. In about 10 years, Integrated battle groups, revamped mechanised Infantry, new aircrafts, new set of ships & submarines, new set of cruise missiles all will be part of India’s arsenal. Not to mention China specific ballistic missiles too. Indian BMD missiles and radar systems supplemented by limited ordered but highly customised S400 will make our defences robust.
Even as of now, India has a good defence against China and is dominating LOC across J&K.
For the first time in his life, somebody is trying to justify what he is paid for, after relative insignificant exitestence in the foreign service. I hope the Chinese are good paymasters.
Srinivasa Nanduri India needs to be strong and independent. Great leaders like PM Modi can take the country to new heights.
Arvind Shah The author is entitled to his opinion. India needs to be strong and steadfast in its dealings with all countries including China. India is clearly asking for some specific actions from China and the author is trying to muddle the issues with his biased opinions. India should be independent and that comes only from a strong economy and military strength. Simple. That is what the Modi’s goverment is trying to achieve.
Not seeing this article worth any point. The author is just bashing India without any major point ..
Arvind Shah .. China became China with US only. You can see the trade imbalance $300 BN in favour China.. So there is no talk without US
"It’s time to abandon the three-year-old notion that calibrated moves to create irritants in the bilateral relationship will incrementally compel Beijing to negotiate on India’s terms."
That notion is more than three years old: it was the operating assumption that led to India’s catastrophic defeat in 1962–not to mention its toxic relations with other neighbors.
The whole thinking process of India,vietnam,dubai,abudhabi,bangladesh,Indonesia,Nepal,srilanka to security was not well thought out.Each one should have picked out 3 weapons development program & 3 major industrial projects & then they would have capitability to prevent colonialism or imperialism 2.00.Now they look like a student who for 350days have whiled their time & then are going to the exam unprepared for consequences facing them from americans & chinese imperialist.
They have been building a aircraft for 30 years called tejas,another 30 years to build the Arjun tank,India’s industrial base is also Yo Yo we don’t even have a operating software like windows or microsoft office 11,our search engines are google & almost we have become a digital colony of the americans.With such being state of affairs due to the congress government for 60 years thinking of war with china is ruled out.Moreover there is hardly anything common between India or USA their skin color is different,their God is also very different,their culture is a imperial hegemony now with these being the situation what are they going to do.It is better for Modi to meet President XI & improve the chinese relations……..china will provide the security cover from American imperialist for Asia.
Modi is only strong when piggybacking USA. Its with USA support we are making the tall claims and threats. Take USA out our stature is diminished and this is what the author wants to convey.
After marching into the peaceful Tibet more than six decades back and occupying the country and suppressing freedom in Tibet and the world opinion against China’s aggressive move largely remaining impotent, China now seems to have become over confident that it can view the world opinion with contempt and get away with it’s notorious behaviour of bullying it’s neighbours. China seems to have concluded that no one would come to the aid of the victimized countries, so long as China would remain economically and militarily strong.
_ N S venkataramen in Sri Lankan guardian.
If China will become richest nation of the world in next 10 yes, India will become 3rd largest economy, as per same forecasts.India even today is not the India of 1962. We learned our lesson they thought, not to trust the Chinese Communist Party. We will stand up for our agendas. Any agreement is a give & take. Not Chinese dictat to which India will agree on just like that.
And just side stepping off the topic, but
Chinese gambit of CPEC, MSR, OBOR, will they bring in economic boom or bust for Central Asian, African and South Asian countries, only time will tell.
However, worst case these nations will fall in circular debt crisis and go bankrupt. But they will also have to give up major businesses or lands or ports to China, as it is giving loans and providing debt servicing to build up infrastructure. And the best thing for China is the construction has to be done using Chinese companies, manpower and material, for creating transit routes and economic corridor to be used by China, eg. Srilanka. The issue of over capacity and the issue of market saturation addressed at one go. So what, if China is creating a new east India Company to gobble up large swathes of land and create colonies.
Let’s see when will wake up to this new reality.
Chinese will world Banker for next few decades. Right now their economy is around 10 trillion dollars in 10 years it will be twice that and with 33% saving rate they will have godly sum of 5-6 trillion dollars to invest. The world has not seen anything like that. Chinese will run the world with US, if Trump helps.
I think India needs to understand what is at stake. It was same stupid game Indians played in 50s and 60s when Americans were king. Now American is in decline and Chinese are in ascent and we treat Chinese as our enemy and America as friend.
Sir, are you are saying that we should accept Chinese dominance over india and give up an populated region of India that has consistently sent law makers to our Parliament since 1950’s, to China.
Obviously any agreement along border is a give and take. It cannot just cater to Chinese needs and demands alone. What assurances is China giving. Next to none. It only said address our concerns in east and we will try and address some adjustments in west.
More over bracketing India with a terrorist rogue nation like Pakistan is a great disservice to Sino Indian relation. By your words one tend to understand that you want known terrorist like Masood Azhar to be left to make designs to hurt India and we should give up our claim on POK and we should not aspire to become part of NSG.
This article is a depressing one, written by a left leaning veteran of world politics with a different view to that of many Indians and the government of the day. Sad and incorrect. We have right to standup for our aspirations and agenda.
Again to settle border dispute, it takes both parties to agree, give & take. I do not see any flexibity on this by China. Only word juggling will not help.
CPEC violates Indian sovereignity, for a nation which insists on one china, they should know what sovereignity is.
If modi wasn’t that strong enough,we woudnt be seeing these taunting articles in the first place. India is not a pushover that china would dictate india its term and the hapless india would agree to it. The indian concerns are as paramoumt as the chinese concerns. And if china was so strong, why not remain unfazed by dalai lama visit instead of getting into hyperbole itself. The series of condecending articles from cctv and asia times say a lot of who is nervouse.