North Korea’s decision last Monday to launch four ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan has been denounced by foreign leaders. The missiles, fired from the Tongchang-ri region near China, travelled more than 950 km; three landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone. Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, labelled the launches as “an extremely dangerous action.”
British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said: “We urge North Korea to stop its provocative actions, which threaten international peace and security. North Korea should instead re-engage with the international community and take credible, concrete steps to prioritize the well-being of its own people instead of the illegal pursuit of its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.”
The United States and Japan have both requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Reaction in the region has also been strong as South Korea indicated it would deploy advanced missile defences despite opposition from China and Russia.
North Korea’s continued testing of ballistic missiles is challenging an international community that hopes Pyongyang will eventually curb its appetite for weapons of mass destruction. Leader Kim Jong-un, however, seems determined to deploy these systems to counter international pressure.
Experts disagree on when the DPRK will be able to accurately deliver an inter-continental ballistic missile. Some suggest a year or two, while others believe it will be much longer. Regardless, when the DPRK eventually proves it can deliver an ICBM accurately, it will have to overcome the challenge of miniaturizing a nuclear warhead, something experts don’t believe they are capable of now.
North Korea is clearly moving in one direction. It intends to build an ICBM capable of hitting the United States. In early 2016, Kim Jong-un indicated that North Korea was moving its military strategy to one of “pre-emptive attack.” This shocked the international community where it was thought sanctions were working to slow North Korea’s missile program. This week’s firings show sanctions directed at the regime are not working.
The situation in the Korean peninsula is testing the patience and support of China, North Korea’s long-time ally in the region. North Korea provides a strategic buffer between the United States and its ally, South Korea. But as China continues its economic reforms, it needs strong bilateral and multilateral relationships with countries opposed to North Korea’s provocative behavior.
This long-term balancing act by Beijing likely will be untenable in the future.
Chinese president Xi Jinping understands that his country’s support of North Korea needs to change if it wants to be an economic leader in the world. But many analysts now believe China is incapable of swaying Pyongyang, particularly with North Korea’s maturing nuclear program. China’s window of influence may be closed permanently.
Despite significant differences between the US and China over Taiwan, the South China Sea, human rights, and climate change, the two global giants should cooperate on the North Korean problem. The window of opportunity is closing and time is running out.
If Pyongyang continues its missile-development program it is highly likely it will have an ICBM capable of carrying nuclear warheads to international targets within 10 years.
President Trump and his administration have publicly scolded Beijing on a variety of topics, mostly centred on Beijing’s trade practices. But a nuclear-armed North Korea in five to 10 years is a far greater threat than any economic squabbles.
If the North Korean regime began to fail, it is not too far-fetched to believe its leadership would fire a nuclear warhead in the name of nationalism to preserve the regime.
This apocalypse is coming unless, of course, Beijing and Washington work together to force North Korea to dismantle its nuclear and missile programs. Doing so would send Pyongyang a clear message that Beijing and Washington are allies on this issue.
North Korea is not stupid but wise. Its developing missiles and nuclear weapons so that it can negotiate with the imperial powers from a position of strength. The world only gives respect to those who have power and having military power will definitely earn you respect. I am sure once the world treats North Korea with more respect they will come to the negotiating table to extract their pound of the flesh.
Well as a first step the US could sign a peace treaty with North Korea and pledge that it will not attack that country. Something that the North Koreans have been requesting ever since the end of the Korean War.
If you keep beating a kid, eventually you just toughen him up. Can anyone blame North Korea for building up it´s defences with 38,000 belligerant US troops on it´s borders practicing for the invasion and occupation of their country? What is the logic in saying that North Korea should not engage in research on how it can attack the US mainland when the US Military is right on it´s doorstep and Presidents ever since the end of the Korean War have threatened to bomb it even nuke it over and over again?
North Korea undestands one thing and that is without a powerful military and it´s nuclear deterrent it would suffer the same fate as Lybia, Syria and Iraq and soon to be Iran. One thing the West…………er international Community needs to understand and that is that the North Korean leadership is not stupid and or suicidal. It is a good starting point to normalization of relations with that country.One thing should be obvious to even the most obtuse American is that more stick and bluster is not now working and has never worked,
er….no mention here that the conflict is rooted in the overthrow of the Japanese empire on the Korean peninsula and China less than three generations ago; an empire by the way supported by oil supplied from the USA.
Middle east can be a great lesson for North Korea, only nuclear weapons and lethal weapons can be used to negotiate.
Their nuke is defensive, they’d get killed conventionally, and obliterated if they ever nuked offensively. Consider they have no transports, refueling, forward bases, NOTHING, basically it’s their only equalizer to prevent invasion, they’d take out a city and that’s too high a price for us to pay. THAAD escalates the situation by leaving them defenseless forcing them to up their nuke game.
THAAD can be overwhelmed by numbers. Also the US has never been able to shoot down a ballistic missile when they did not know where it was going to launched from. Did not know the time of the launch. Did not know the type of missile,. Did not know the velocity of the missile, Did not know the trejectory of the missile. In short if North Korea gives them all of this information they will be able to shoot down about 20% of the incoming missiles. it is just another pork barrell project to keep Americans at work producing weapons. There is not now, and never will be, a 100% effective missile shield. It is just a pipe dream that Reagan had in one of his less lucid moments. relying on a missile shield is much like the French relying on the Maginou Line. The Germans simply went around it.