US-China rivalry in the South China Sea is ringing alarm bells in littoral Southeast Asian nations, with fears rising that Donald Trump’s administration could tilt the region’s delicate balance towards conflict.
China has recently expanded its strategic footprint on various disputed features, deploying new weapons systems and establishing advanced military facilities on artificially reclaimed islands in both the Spratly and Paracel chains.
Trump’s administration has indicated it views China’s actions as a direct challenge to freedom of navigation and overflight in one of the world’s most important sea lines of trade and communications, and a challenge to American strategic primacy in the Western Pacific.
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested during his confirmation hearings that the US could impose a naval blockade on China’s artificial islands in the Spratlys. The threat was followed by this week’s deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson to the South China Sea as part of so-called “routine operations” in the area.
The South China Sea disputes and Trump’s Asia policy were at the center of the recently concluded Association of Southeast Asian Nations foreign ministers’ meeting in the Philippine resort island of Boracay. Ministers expressed unanimous grave concern over the “unsettling” militarization of features in the sea, but fell short of blaming China.
With the Philippines taking over the rotating Asean chairmanship there are expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough. At the least, there is new hope that after more than a decade of negotiations Asean and China can finalize a legally binding Code of Conduct in the maritime area.
Manila is also quietly pushing to mention its landmark international arbitration case win in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea against Beijing over their territorial disputes in the South China Sea, according to sources familiar with the situation. China has consistently rejected the legitimacy of the ruling.
Under the chairmanship of Laos, a close China ally, Asean failed to mention the arbitration award by The Hague-based tribunal, which by some readings nullified the bulk of China’s sweeping territorial claims in the area. This year, however, a number of Asean countries seem interested in reviving The Hague ruling as a basis to manage the maritime spats.
(Asean members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam all have competing claims with China in the South China Sea.)
“A number of ministers expressed concern over recent developments and escalation of activity in the [South China Sea], which may further raise tensions and erode trust and confidence in the region,” said Philippine Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay after the February 21 conclusion of the meeting. While he cast doubt the disputes would be solved “during our lifetime,” he was optimistic Asean and China would complete a code of conduct framework by the middle of this year.
Though Duterte has publicly backed engagement with China, largely out of fear of direct conflict with the Asian juggernaut, Philippine defense officials are known to be deeply concerned with China’s ambitions in Philippine-claimed waters. While the Philippines and Vietnam have quietly welcomed Trump’s more robust American pushback in the South China Sea, there are wider regional concerns about how a US-China conflict at sea would impact on smaller regional states.
Fiery Cross
Asean has long sought to prevent a great power conflict which would force its members to choose sides between China and the US. For most Asean members it is crucial to continue expanding trade and investment ties to China, on one hand, while maintaining robust military cooperation with America as a hedging strategy on the other.
In the event of a Sino-America conflict, this balancing strategy would be severely tested, particularly among countries with competing claims in the maritime area. Any military escalation in the sea lanes would also undermine trade and investment links and severely impact on the region’s trade-geared economies.
There are rising expectations that Trump will adopt a “status quo plus” approach to his predecessor Barack Obama’s “pivot” towards Asia. Unlike the Obama administration, which proactively engaged smaller Asian states, the Trump administration has so far left Asean in the cold, preferring to prioritize instead engagement with Northeast Asian allies Japan and South Korea.
As the supposed driver of regional integration and bedrock of East Asia’s security architecture, Asean is now scrambling to assert any semblance of centrality in managing the South China Sea disputes. Indeed, there is a lingering sense that Asean could slip into strategic irrelevance unless it quickly forges a unified and coherent approach to the maritime disputes.
As China intensified its influence over Southeast Asian countries, including American treaty allies Thailand and the Philippines, the Trump administration confronts the tough task of regaining strategic ground lost in the late phases of Obama’s lame duck rule. But it is still unclear the comprehensive engagement that will be needed to reverse the tide under Trump.
In coming months, the US Navy is expected to conduct sustained freedom of navigation operations to reassert its power via-a-vis China’s claims in the South China Sea. Trump will also likely put more pressure on regional allies, particularly Japan and Australia, to contribute more to multilateral efforts aimed at reining in Chinese growing maritime ambitions.
Since the early 2000s, China has progressively stepped up its campaign to deny American intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions within its 200-mile exclusive economic zone and increasingly beyond. Earlier this month, a Chinese surveillance aircraft flew dangerously close to intercept a US Navy P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft flying over the South China Sea.
The incident sent ripples through Southeast Asia and showed that the Trump administration’s tough language has not yet prompted China to retreat from its foothold in adjacent waters. China has recently fortified its presence in both the Spratlys, where it occupies seven land features, and the Paracels, where it occupies all of the 20 land features situated near Vietnam.
Weeks before Trump’s inauguration, China deployed anti-aircraft guns and close-in weapons systems to the Hughes and Gaven reefs of the Spratlys. It also recently built towers equipped with targeting radars at the Fiery Cross, the command-control center of China’s administrative presence in the island chain.
In the Paracels, also claimed by Vietnam, China has expanded the Woody Island to incorporate the nearby Rocky island. The integrated artificial island now hosts an airstrip, hangers and HQ-9 surface-to-air missile batteries, according to reports. Five other land features are set to have harbors and helipads, with the Duncan Island expected to host a full-fledged helicopter base.
Hughes Reef
Washington’s deployment of the USS Carl Vinson, accompanied by an armada of warships, was a clear signal that neither will America sit by idly as the strategic balance shifts. The last time America showed such force in the South China Sea was in early 2016, when there were concerns of imminent Chinese reclamation activity on the Philippine-claimed Scarborough Shoal.
That was under the pro-US Philippine President Benigno Aquino administration, which was replaced last July by the at least outwardly more China-friendly Duterte. China’s growing military prowess its putting pressure on America to develop a stronger naval presence in the region, with power projection capabilities at nearby bases, particularly at Subic and Oyster Bay in the Philippines.
But without stronger engagement and clearer messaging under Trump, it is not clear those or other regional facilities will be available when America most needs them.
Chineese crocodiles were prowling in SCS for a long time. It is sad nobody noticed that except to believe they were on a fishing trip. It is not too late to stop this monstrous bully. East Asians must unite first. Chineese Commies understand only force.
The author does not even understand what ‘arbitration’ definition is, not to mention ‘kangaroo coiurt’.
"Philippines and Vietnam have quietly welcomed Trump’s more robust American pushback in the South China Sea,"
When did this happen? It probably did not.
The US is compeletely responsible for creating the tensions in the SCS and has no business in the area.
More US propaganda! Boring!
What is your definition of arbitration then?
It makes me laugh when it says china rise is threathening to the world order which was solely dictated by the west in the past 300years with their barrels and guns! as far as i know the chinese have not invaded or colonised any countries during their past 3000 years.
US needs to concerns more about itself at home then aboard. We need to build a stronger economic and health care system. Our health care system is sucked. South China Sea is strategic for China to take control over Taiwan. And, China will take whatever it cost to control the South China Sea. Encircle China will be harder nowaday, China is not RUSSIA.
Commentators like to brandish the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) judgement as if it was the holy word.
1) It is not a United Nations agency. It was formed by multilateral conventions. Hence it does have the same authortity in relation to sovereign nation states.
2) The PCA is not a court, like the International Court of Justice (ICJ). It is a centre for arbitration – which is to resolve a dispute outside of the court. This also requires both contesting parties to agree to submit to the decision.
3) Unlike the ICJ, the PCA has no sitting judges. The parties themselves select the arbitrators.
Therefore, given the above, it is a pointless exercise to go shouting about the PCA when firstly its composition can be selected by the parties. Secondly, Its arbitration is not recognised by all the parties in the dispute. Thirdly, it is not enforceable.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) wishes to draw the attention of the media and the public to the fact that the Award in the South China Sea Arbitration (The Republic of the Philippines v. The People’s Republic of China) was issued by an Arbitral Tribunal acting with the secretarial assistance of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA). The relevant information can be found on the PCA’s website (PCA-CPA). The ICJ, which is a totally distinct institution, has had no involvement in the above mentioned case and, for that reason, there is no information about it on the ICJ’s website.
At best, it is just a PR exercise to allow one of the aggrieved parties to feel good. At worst, it simply muddies the water and allows a 3rd party under the pretense of an "honest broker" to intervene and further exacerbate the situation to no benefit of the aggrieved parties.
How convenient to forget the gunboat diplomacy (or ‘Big Stick’ from the US) engaged in by the colonial powers (including the US) since the 19th century. Need I remind you of the imprint of the psyche of the Chinese thanks to the Opium wars, and the 8 nations attack on Beijing? Hence their need to secure their eastern sea flank. In every Asian littoral country of the Pacific, where has the great powers left well enough alone? And you have the gall to call others bully?
All this sanctimonious talk would be better received if if was not so hypocritical. Indeed East Asians must unite, and against meddling jingoists who still dream about manifest destiny ostensibly cloaked as ‘spreading freedom’.
Tino Tan Most Americans are totally ignorant of the history between China and the West. They have no idea of the way that Western powers with Imperial lust forced their way onto China and other Asian nations during the 18th and 19th centuries. The British Empire dominated China and India and tried to rule the entire World…now America with its corporate sponsors is trying the same thing. But it is not the American people who are so imperialistic….it is the corporations, banking industry, high finance, and military industrial complex that sees its fortunes in American Empire. However, the American Empire like all empires before it has followed the same fatal pattern….overextension, heavily….even fatally in debt to the tune of over TWENTY TRILLION DOLLARS, a soft and corrupt society, falling scholastic achievement in its schools, high crime rate…higher than any other civilized nation, more people in prisons than any other nation, a high divorce rate, a destroyed middle class, broken families, awash in pornography and sex crimes, loss of faith in government……..etc etc etc…..the empire is doomed but seems determined to hold onto power instead of accepting that the World is tired of a unipolar World.
Why is it that pieces such as this one never mention the fact that the country that most needs "freedom of navigation" in the South China Sea is China itself. Ships bound for Japan, Korea or the US can by-pass the area (at some cost). Ships to and from South China cannot. So why do we not speak of the danger posed by the US Navy to China’s freedom of navigation?
cvbcv
Tino Tan : Exactly. Well said. The US and West are the earth’s greatest evil. Let us chase them back to the US, demolish all their bases in Japan, S Korea, The Philippines, Singapore. When Asia is rid of US/Western influence, peace will be upon us.
James Richardson Do you have a statue of Chairman Mao to kowtow to at your home?
While the PRC has been patient and persistent over the past 40 years re the Spratly’s and the Shoals, things have changed quite a bit for them since when they started… Where was the ASEAN group then? This article talks all about President Trump and what will he do. Like he is Atlas alone holding the earth on his shoulders…
I am sure the US Navy and the US will respond in a fashion for sure. A Cold War of sorts will develop if unchecked. IMO the PRC is really untested as a world power during conflict unlike the US and Russia, and based on their actions like punishing Vietnam in the late 70’s over "principle" we cannot guess at their response today would be. We only can see they play the long game…
But have you noticed that the PRC is "punishing" North Korea and attempting to modify it’s behavior recently, like in the last couple weeks? Now link the two- #1, the Asian PRK "crazy uncle in the attic" problem; and #2- the PRCs seemingly inevitable enchroachment and bellicose posturing in the South China Sea.
Is it possible the PRC is about to offer a quid pro quo? IE, that the PRC will control and defang the PRK in return for hegemony in the Spratleys and South China Sea.
Is that possible?
America has serious problem internaly because of too much GREED with their Leadership Cartel, thinking too much in the short term unfortunately… Now, can anyone here tell me honestly if it was fair for China to have decided to CLAIM by itself 90% of the whole of the SCS with disregards and respect to the other six Asian Nation included (without their consent unless coerce or intimidated)? Did China ask them first if it was ok? NO, they decided to act like the Plaque they are…using slowly but steadily their long Tentacles strategy around these water with absolutely NO respect and with total disregards toward World opinion. To me that puts China in a worst shape than the U.S. and or Russia. The solution, these six Asian Nation who are being Victimize by China should find the courage and united together with the World backing them in confronting and Challenging China on the open Sea with big demonstrations, to force in establishing lines of communication with China and work together in sharing equally all the fishing rights and its natural ressources and respecting the ecosystem in such a way so not to destroy anymore the environment like China did with building these fake islands. Maybe China needs seriously at looking to enforce natural Birth control with their first and second generation individuals to come if they want to live in Peace with the rest of the World.
Hegemony in equal partnership with the other six Nations involved (in pro Rata China having a bigger share of the natural/fishing rights in the SCS) North Korea will get rid of these Idiots controlling that Nation and start to modernize it so it become a viable economy (with the help of the South, Japan, China and the U.S.)
strerere
edwtretrere
I believe your claim that the Chinese have not invaded or colonised any country in the last 3000 years is false. First of all how could China now have 56 minorities today?Why not 100, or 200? Thousands of years ago there must be more than 300 small nations in the land area that is today’s China. The Han Chinese invaded them one after another and colonized their land after a customary genocide. A recent recorded genocide of the Dzungar nation can be found on the internet by search and you will be awoked to see your falsehood.
Ne Pacific, I think you did not understand the meaning of the term "freedom of navigation". First, freedom of navigation is one of six freedoms provided to countries of the world by the international law UNCLOS. Second, if China allows one, it means China will allow all the six. Thirdly, China acknowledges that the SCS is part of the high seas, which is equivalent to international commons. Namely the SCS is everybody’s territory, not China’s alone.