Rex Tillerson’s confirmation as US Secretary of State must come as comforting news for Moscow. It augurs well for the Russian-American relationship. It leads to ‘de-escalation’ in the tensions, of which incipient signs appear already.
The veteran Russian diplomat heading the Mission to the United Nations in New York, Vitaly Churkin said on Thursday that he could sense the winds of change in his newly-minted American counterpart Nikki Haley (in comparison with her combative predecessor.)
Amid all the speculation on what Tillerson can or cannot — or may not — do with regard to the US sanctions against Russia in the weeks ahead, what is overlooked is that his captaincy of American diplomacy itself can inject much-needed trust, mutual confidence and stability to the overall Russian-American relationship.
Like any experienced tiller, Tillerson will be preparing the frozen ground after a harsh winter. It’s a hard task. But his asset is that he brings into the job an extraordinary understanding of Russia and the Russian people, their culture and society — and what motivates the inner recesses of their mind and behavior — which is unique in US-Russia diplomatic history.
Tillerson has traveled extensively within Russia and has vast negotiating experience with Russian leaders, including at the highest level — something that elevates him to an unusual ‘Kremlinologist’ who combines theory and practice.
Tillerson indeed is an ‘inspired choice’ by President Donald Trump, as Senator Bob Corker who heads the Foreign Relations Committee had remarked more than once during the hearings on his nomination as state secretary recently.
While addressing the state department employees on Thursday, his first working day, Tillerson made a disarming remark:
Before President Trump called me, I thought I would be entering retirement this spring after four decades of business experience. Renda (wife) and I were ready to head off to the ranch and enjoy our grandchildren. But when I came back from my first meeting with President Trump and he asked me to do this, Renda said, “You didn’t know it, but you’ve been in a 41-year training program for this job.” So despite our own dreams, she said, “You’re supposed to do this.” Well, my first day is here. I’m on the job. Hi, I’m the new guy.
Indeed, not being a part of bureaucracy any time — or being career politician (like John Kerry or Hillary Clinton) or ‘Cold Warrior’ (like Condoleezza Rice or Madeline Albright) — always has its advantage. Simply put, Tillerson can afford to be open-minded and pragmatic.
However, Tillerson will run into headwinds. Much is being said about institutional resistance within the US to any attempt to improve relations with Russia. The resistance is no doubt formidable.
The US Congress, security establishment and the media are permeated with Russophobia. Then, there are the faceless interest groups — America’s military-industrial complex — that thrived on ‘East-West’ confrontation.
Trump’s upfront questioning of the projected cost of the F-35 stealth fighter underscores it. Meanwhile, ‘Euro-Atlanticism’ also has its secret charms. The NATO itself is a gravy train. Have gun, will travel. Brilliant careers are made in Brussels.
Further beyond, Germany had pinned hopes on the Berlin-Washington axis to build itself as Europe’s superpower, which are threatened if Trump pushes ahead with his intention to improve relations with Russia.
The anger and frustration in Berlin is palpable. Although camouflaged in the idiom of ‘western liberalism’, the crux of the matter is Germany’s growing ambitions to take its place at the high table as a global power, as evident from its steady build-up as a world-class military power and its quest in recent years in search of a leadership role in resolving global and regional conflicts.
All said, therefore, the improvement of US-Russia relations will be incremental. Russia needs to be patient. The likelihood is that the process will be front-loaded with business ties and cooperation in the fight against the Islamic State and other terrorist groups in Syria. Tillerson would have a road map.
This would, hopefully, generate a consensus in the US and western opinion that constructive engagement of Russia can be productive and can serve western interests — and will be the smart thing to do.
The crunch time, no doubt, will come over Ukraine. The heart of the matter is that the ‘regime change’ in Ukraine two years ago was a precipitate move by the EU (under the supervision of German Chancellor Angela Merkel) and the US allowed itself to be drawn into it, although it had no direct stakes in it.
In politics, admitting mistakes never comes easy, and the West today lacks the leadership with the moral courage to recant. In Ukraine, West knows that Russia has exceedingly high stakes. How Tillerson unscrambles the omelette will be fascinating to watch.
His personal equations with Russian President Vladimir Putin will matter a great deal here, while Trump’s backing of Tillerson will be decisive.
The good part is that Europe will also be electing a new leadership through this year and the probability is that current antipathies toward Russia may give way to a sense of realism. The fact that Obama is no longer there to drum up the enemy image of Russia in the western camp will most certainly help.
If the trans-Atlantic fusion betwixt the unforgiving ‘rejectionists’ — those who seek to bring Russia down on its knees — dissolves through this year, Trump’s Russia policies will advance sooner than one would have thought.
The chances of this happening cannot at all be ruled out. The outcome of France’s presidential election in April will provide some clarity. But the defining moment will be the German elections to the Bundestag in October.
The heart of the matter is that latent German revanchism embraces both the ideological right and the left. In a powerful essay last week, Joschka Fischer, former foreign minister, argued that Germany should deploy its economic prowess to take over the leadership of both EU and NATO. From such a perspective, he visualized a rapprochement between Europe and China.
The bottom line is that the alchemy of French-German relations holds profound consequences to US-Russia détente. Francois Fillon’s existential battle to remain as the front-runner in the French electoral battle adds to the overall fluidity.
How will the Trump-Tillerson team handle the provocative problem of expulsion of a large number of Russian secret agents left behind by
Obama?
My understanding of world affairs is mostly informed by intelligent writers such as MK. Thank you. I was surprised to read his assertion that the EU were the prime movers in the recent ‘regime change’ in Ukraine, with the US simply following, because all the evidence and intelligent analysis that I have read suggests the opposite dynamic. I wonder what evidence there is to support MK´s assertion?
Could you please be a little more helpful and name a few of those agents and where they might be in the US?
Exactly. I mean V. Nuland sure seemed to have her grubby little hands all over the regeime change even dictating who would take over as president.
I really think the big danger is not war with Russia but war with China whice would force Russia into it alongside China. If the Beltway Warriors should be successful in driving the US into a war with China Russia will have no choice, because Russia knows that it will be next on the chopping block. As a matter of fact if I were Russia, and President Putin i would be, at this very moment, in Bejing hammering out a military alliance so that China and Russia could present a united front against the USA and NATO. Russia´s military high tech is as good as the US military high tech, add to that China´s military might and they could beat the hapless American Military. Besides Russia and china would have no problem flattening American cities in retaliation if the US were to hit chinese and Russian cities. The American people would want out of that war immediately if new york were to go up in smoke alkong with chigago and Atlanta.( With all of the trillions the US has spent on their military over the last thrity years they have not managed to win a single one of the 13 wars they have started and that was with third world countries that really did not have the means to shoot back. China and Russia can shoot back and big time.)
Tillerson might just be the guy to make a welcome change in the Russia US dynamic but he is working within a group that is saying very agressive things against China and Trumps personal adviser Bannon has even come out bluntly and stated that there will be war between China and the US within the next five to ten years. So I would expect that Tillerson, despite his good intentions will just be carried along with the tide of the Washington War Loving Crowd and their Group Think Tanks..
S. Purewall
Bhadrakumar is right on EU/Germany link and Merkel’s ambitions to be the head of another Superpower. Lot of plotting before the coup was done in Germany by the political actors like current Kiev Mayor Vitaly Klitschko, his brother, and other right wing Ukrainian Nationalists. There were many other German and EU actors involved in the planning. There was an interesting article in Der Spiegel on this subject around that time. As the evidence suggests, U.S. was of course the major actor in this as well. Besides financing (five billions in Nuland’s words), Nuland actively partcipated in the regime change operations leading up to and during the coup.