The statement in Islamabad on Wednesday by Alaeddin Broujerdi, chairman of the Iranian parliament’s committee on foreign and security policies, while on a 3-day visit to Islamabad, to the effect that ‘no one can influence the deep-rooted cooperation’ between Iran and Pakistan, may not necessarily amount to a reference to India’s regional strategies.
The probability is that Broujerdi was alluding to Pakistan’s traditionally close ties with Saudi Arabia because the Iranian news agency IRNA situated his remark in a broader reference to the ‘strong brotherly ties’ between Iran and Pakistan, which hinted at their Islamic affinities.
However, Broujerdi’s next remark, namely, that Iran, China and Pakistan ‘should form a triangle of cooperation which will benefit the three important countries of the region’ certainly is a matter of utmost interest to India and it can possibly be viewed as a significant development in the geopolitics of India’s western neighbourhood.
This may well be the first time that an authoritative voice in the Iranian regime has openly articulated on the imperative of ‘a triangle of cooperation’ between Iran, Pakistan and China as a factor of regional stability.
It needs to be noted because Broujerdi is a seasoned diplomat and strategic thinker. For the benefit of those who are not initiated in Iranian politics, Broujerdi is an influential figure in the political establishment in Tehran and plays a significant role in Iran’s diplomatic initiatives. He is a frequent visitor to Syria and Lebanon, which fall within the first circle of Iran’s foreign and security policies.
The first thing that needs to be noted is the timing of Broujerdi’s remarks. He spoke within a week of Donald Trump’s ascension as the US president. Tehran anticipates a transformative period in the geopolitics of the region comprising the Persian Gulf, South and Central Asia.
Simply put, Iran expects a reversion to the interventionist policies of the US during the presidency of George W. Bush. Trump’s determination to revive the verve of US-Israel relations and restore the centrality of Israeli concerns in the remaking of the US’ Middle East policies cannot be lost on Tehran.
Also, Saudi expectations are rising that Trump is almost certainly taking a hard line on Iran and reasserting the US’ authority in the Middle East region in a turnaround from the past few years of the Barack Obama administration.
Suffice it to say, Iran needs to secure as much ‘strategic depth’ as possible in its region in the event of a sharp deterioration in the US-Iranian ties, which can no longer be ruled out.
Now, Pakistan also faces uncertainties in its relations with the US in the coming period under Trump. Apart from the backlog of differences in the relations between the two countries in the troubled period since 2011, much would depend on Trump’s approach to the Afghan war.
Pakistan is keeping its fingers crossed. If Trump decides to seek a military solution, there will be immense US pressure on Pakistan to curb the activities of the Haqqani Network. Equally, Pakistan’s close relations with China will continue to engage US attention.
Tehran would be estimating that there could be congruence of interests between Iran, Pakistan and China to push back at US interventionist policies in the region and to marginalize the American influence in overall terms.
Tehran would estimate that there is common ground here insofar as a strong, open-ended American military presence in Afghanistan would be detrimental to the interests of Iran, Pakistan and China.
Against this regional backdrop, do not be surprised if Iran presses its interest in participation in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Interestingly, Broujerdi didn’t bring in Russia into the equation to make it a ‘quadrilateral of cooperation’ – perhaps, he didn’t want to embarrass Moscow and Delhi. However, some strategic analysts see such a strategic calculus taking shape steadily in the region, involving Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran.
The climate of Iran-Pakistan relations has noticeably improved in the recent years. The two countries have been successful in harmonising their differences over Afghanistan where they have no more to enter into contestation, given Iran’s reconciliation with the Taliban and the two countries’ common threat perceptions over the rise of the Islamic State in the ‘AfPak’ region.
Again, Iran needs Pakistan’s cooperation to tackle the activities of Sunni terrorist groups in its eastern provinces, some of whom could be enjoying covert Saudi backing.
Conceivably, Tehran would feel uneasy that Saudi Arabia’s Islamic military alliance has been put under the command of the redoubtable former Pakistani army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif, underscoring the strong Pakistani commitment to Saudi Arabia’s security.
Suffice it to say, when Broujerdi spoke of ‘brotherly’ ties between Iran and Pakistan, he conveniently glossed over the complexity of their relations. The fact remains that the Iranian and Pakistan ‘brothers’ never quite managed to have a smooth relationship of trust and mutual confidence since the Islamic Revolution in 1978.
Without doubt, what has prompted Tehran to reach out to Islamabad is its reading that the latter would share its concerns over Trump’s likely regional policies. Simply put, Iran is seeking ‘strategic depth’.
Iran wouldn’t want Pakistan to return to the Saudi orbit, while on Pakistan’s part, it will not hesitate to go the extra league to prevent a revival of the strategic axis involving India and Iran.
The bottom line is that both Iran and Pakistan regard China as a bulwark against US hegemony. The CPEC also brings in an economic dimension.
Having said that, while there is hardly any scope for a US-Iranian constructive engagement as long as Trump is in the White House, the Pakistani perspective may differ.
The preference of the Pakistani elites will be to negotiate the terms of co-habitation with the new US administration on the basis of give-and-take. The Pakistani elites will do no matter what it takes to prevent Trump showing ’tilt’ toward India.
The US defence secretary Gen. James Mattis and the NSC Gen. Mikhail Flynn are old ‘Pakistan hands’. But then, India must be counting that this can also be a double-edged sword insofar as Trump has not one but two security czars who would have no illusions regarding Pakistan’s doublespeak on terrorism.
For sure, a keen diplomatic tussle lies ahead between India and Pakistan in the Washington Beltway. It is unlikely that Pakistan will respond to Broujerdi’s call for a strategic axis until the outcome of that tussle is fully known.
why the hell is this writer even concerned
When Pakistan has friends like Saudi & USA it does not has the need to have enemies.
He is an analyst on world affairs and thats his job. If you dont like his article why bother reading it.
Albert Dsouza To understand his stupid concerns I definitely need to read the article LOL….both India and Afghanistan are enemies of Iran and Pakistan.
An extraordinarily objective analysis indeed that covers almost all aspects of Iran and Pakistan as well as India, Russia, and China concerns. Ambassador Bhadrakumar has the gift to approach almost every topic in international affairs and I have grown fond to his perspective, the way he approached and narrates. Critics below have neither percept nor an understanding of how Ambassador Bhadrakumar perceives and analyzes issues with dignity and knowledge. I hold a very high regard for him and his observations.
Sami Shahid And Iran & Pakistan are friends? In fact thanks to Saudi link Pakistan and Iran are enemies whereas Iran and India were strategic allies.
Albert Dsouza Iran and Pakistan are not enemies.
Hear! Hear!
As ever, spot on.
Sami Shahid That’s Geo Politics. Iran will look for bigger advantage with Chahbahar and will never spoil it’s relations with India…
I believe, the Writer articulated the situation in an interesting way. Dynamics of strategic relationship always requires dynamic outlook. Pakistan-Iran-India all live in the same neighborhood. China with CPEC projects looming large in the horizon. Russia finds it new-found role worthwhile. Then US, being the most dominant world power, will always have a say every which way things may evolve. Writer’s viewpoint on India-Pakistan zero-sum game may be a bit stretch, for a great power can’t be beholden to any regional power. Ironically both of them are about to join Russia-China dominated SCO pact.
Unknown factor here is, what would be Trump’s policy in Afghanistan. As bad as Afghan situation may be, it is beyond comprehension that Trump Administration would walk out of Afghanistan, for it’s at the cross road of Oil-rich Central Asia-Persian Gulf & emerging Economies of South Asia. Conversely both Russia & China for historical & other considerationcons definitely would watch out for their respective strategic advantage.
So it is still a Big-Power game, Iran-Pakistan-india here still playing side-show.
.. Pakistan is no more in any side show. ..
Iran is concerned and wants Pakistan and China to form strategic partnership with it because of Modi’s recent chest beating over Baloch insurgency in Pakistan during India’s republic day speech. Modi seems to have forgotten that Iran also has Baloch population and insurgencies within its border, and if India seeks to invoke disturbance in Pakistani Baloch areas, it will inevitably spill inside Iran’s borders too.
Well Ali, Paktun population in both side of the Durand line makes Pakistan a dominant player by default. That’swhy Prez Reagan sub-contracted a role to Pakistan in the past, showering it with treasure & weapon systems. Now with CPEC China is betting big on Pakistan. Russia is also warming-up towards it. Without Pakistan in the loop, US can’t have an effective Afghan game plan. Pakistan’s Geography puts it at the center stage – other can only envy. Pakistan leadership is aware of their advantage and they are adept in playing hard to get. Cash poor, Nuclear Pakistan has a way of making its presence felt.
So primarily Pakistan is a game by itself: secondarily, a much sought after partner to reckon with.
Iran and Pakistan are closely woven in Islamic brotherly relations which go back two centuries. Right after the partition Pakistan has close friendship in times of Reza Shah Pehalvi. Then the formation( Pakistan, Iran and Turkey) of SEATO and CENTO under British and American direction. Perhaps Bhadrakumar Ji knows that Iranian and Afghani route has been the frequent route of invasion of India by the various Muslim dynesties and then Mughals which ruled India almost a hundred years. The Shia and Sunni religious divide has no influence on Pakistani public. Actually it was the Western Media and Saudi wahabiism that created this rift but Pakistani public lived in complete harmony both Shia and Sunnis never have problem. India should be genuinely concerned about the changing Geopolitics and India’s development of Chah Bahar will have no effect on Irnian/ Pakistrani relationship. In 1965 war with India the whole Pakistani Air Force was parked in Iran as Pakistan because of its meagre size was vulnerable to Indian raids. That was with the tacit approval of Shah of Iran. Pakistanis have always made sincere and long lasting friendly ties based on mutual respect and interest with both China ( 65 years and counting) and Iran.Unlike India which always have kept kepy short sighted interests in mind. This has been the case ever since partition. First SOVIET Uniion now US. I don’t know about Russians but China, Pakistan and Iran alliance would be a bulwark agaist US and Indian threats and Pakistanis need it because of thier size. Man that would be something and India’s Modi should be really losing sleep over it. He has been running around busy islolating Pakistan. American base in Afghanistan would be an unnatural entity and not viable to survive if this alliance froms and boy o boy if Russia becomes a part of it, it be AWSOME. India have been banking on Russia for now 70 years and are Americans so stupid or something that they don’t understand it??? Americans pumping India to stand against China? what a loser thing. The day China decide to move on Laddakh, India won’t stand this juggernaught not for a day. Amazing how the things are changing. Regadless, I have a great respect for Bhadrakumar Ji, he is a seasoned diplomat and a great writer I always enjoy reading his articles.
Sami Shahid That is called creative diplomacy and convergence of Interest. India indirectly helped Iran and USA to get together and in same way we will broker between USA and Russia
Donald Smith Maybe because we have a 5000 year old shared history ??!!!
Pakistan has scored a hat-trick. On top of the tensions with India that threaten to cascade any moment, and the bloody border clashes with Afghanistan, Pakistan has now taken on Iran also as its adversary. However, Islamabad has extended an offer for diplomatic solution.
Read more here about the issue: https://www.globalvillagespace.com/rising-tensions-between-the-neighbors-pakistan-offers-diplomacy-to-iran/