After reclaiming almost all of Aleppo, Syria’s former commercial capital, President Bashar al-Assad has got his biggest prize of the war. It would put his forces in control of the country’s four largest cities as well as the coastal region, and cap a year of steady government advances. It should be remembered that more than half of Syria’s population lives in its four great cities: Damascus, Homs, Hama and Aleppo.
Aleppo used to its biggest city before the uprising, so by gaining control of Aleppo, the Syrian regime got total control of urban Syria, control of the heart of the nation. It also would also bolster the Syrian government’s position and momentum just as a new US administration is taking hold, freeing thousands of troops and allied militiamen to move on to other battles around the country. Eastern Aleppo was the last urban stronghold of the Syrian moderate rebels. With the fall of eastern Aleppo to the regime forces and allied militias the backbone of the non-Jihadist opposition to Assad has been broken. With the loss of Aleppo, the opposition has lost control of its only lifeline for resupply. Aleppo represents the essence of the conflict between the regime and the Syrian armed opposition.
The collapse in Aleppo is a devastating blow to the morale of rebels in other parts of Syria. With Aleppo secure, Assad will be able to turn his attentions to the Damascus countryside and Idlib, the province next door.
When eastern Aleppo falls, it’s only a matter of time before the remaining pockets of resistance will fall, either by fire or capitulation. And it may mark the end of the uprising against the Assad regime which Syrian moderate opposition called revolution. The opposition, always a hodgepodge of often mutually hostile groups, united only by their enmity of the regime, hold only scattered and shrinking pockets of territory around Damascus, Homs, Daraa and Aleppo, with the only sizable area still under their control in Idlib province.
Turkey supports factions of the Free Syrian Army along Syria’s northern border, and the United States backs the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeast, but both those groups are focused on fighting ISIS, not the regime. The rebel groups that emerged from the popular uprising against Assad’s dictatorship in 2011 now face an existential threat after losing the key territories. The Syrian revolution, which was started by the moderates, lacked strategic vision from the start because it began without any objective beyond reforming or replacing a regime that had nurtured as many allies as enemies.
Because of deep resentment against the repressive Assad regime, the opposition succeeded in the initial phase of the uprising and was able to take Aleppo. After the loss of this city, which was considered the heart of the Syrian revolution, the moderate opposition that positioned itself as the mascot of the revolution has been vanquished.
This crushing defeat of moderate rebels has one obvious consequence: It has left the jihadist, Salafist and Tafkiri factions of the rebellion practically alone on the battlefields, granting them a near monopoly over the revolutionary discourse. This will be a disastrous for the original moderate, secular, democratic goals of the Syrian revolution. The fall of Aleppo will cripple much of the rebel activity in the northern part of Syria. With Aleppo wrapped up, the regime and its friends would be able to start squeezing the rebels’ Idlib stronghold from Aleppo in the east, Latakia in the west, and Hama in the south, a move that could eventually escalate into a full-blown siege of the last major province held by rebels.
The fall of Aleppo would have lethal repercussions on the ongoing war and on the post-war Syria it will result in radicalization and sectarianism. In an interview with Syrian newspaper al-Watan Syrian al-Assad said “It’s true that Aleppo will be a win for us, but let’s be realistic – it won’t mean the end of the war in Syria.”
“But it will be a huge step towards this end,” he added.
Surely the fall of Aleppo doesn’t mean an immediate end to this bloody war in Syria. But the Syrian revolution, which started with the promise of overthrowing one of the most enduring and brutal dictatorships in the region and for establishment of free Syria based on democratic values. Is faced with the prospect of being reduced to a rebellion striving through disruptive acts of insurgency to break out of containment.
Rebel forces will mount classic guerrilla hit-and-run attacks, assassinations, armed raids and roadside bombs on areas under government control. Syria’s civil war will linger on low intensity. Innocents will keep dying some parts of the country will remain outside the control of Damascus.
One thing is clear: The Assad regime has prevailed, thanks to Moscow. It is also, perhaps, the final death knell for that string of revolts or revolutions or uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Bahrain and Yemen, which have ended in catastrophe.
What revolution?!
Oh sorry, now I remember The Revolution,,, It started 2009 by 7 brothers,, US, UK , France, Israel, Saudi, Qater and Turky.
Manish Rai who provided chances to dominate Takfiris and Jihadis? I think wholr regime change policy of US was destructive and So called FSA in fact cheated their supporters when they made alliance with Nusra and other Wahhabi Takfiri groups.
Ah, yes, the ‘non jihadi non extremist opposition’, as hard to find as those WMDs ‘minutes from launch’ will react to having been driven out of the east Aleppo neighborhoods they invaded and held at gunpoint by transforming themselves into the easy to find ‘bloodthirsty Takfiri extremists’ that have somehow always seemed to get their hands on the arms sent to the ‘NJNEO’ as soon as the weapons arrive in Syria.
Anyone who doesn’t know that the US will continue to find people willing to try and overthrow governments for the promise of being able to loot the treasury and call themselves Shah, or King, or President probably also doesn’t know that Trump lost the popular vote, but though there will be takers, they’re going to be like the guys who took over that park in Oregon.
"Deep resentment" syrians might have had was first and foremost to abject poverty and years of economic stagnation, hardly a specific failure of Pres. Assad. Stagnation is commonplace in the area, basically any country except the Gulf states and Turkey are mired in it, yet no weapon nor military advisor makes his way to, say, Bahrain. Also, most indicatively, economic prowness is reason why China, in the 25 years past Tien an Men, didnt experience a revolution. Except wealthy HKers with umbrella.
I agree to Bigfoot non-jihadies, but the guys in the park in Oregon indeed thought that Trump lost the popular vote.
Il Galata Morente Given how little grip on reality the Bundy’s have, and the large number of Republicans who somehow have escaped learning that Trump badly lost the popular vote, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Bundy’s are ignorant on that matter, too. But my point was that while there’ll be Bundy types, and wannabe Bundy types in every country, in Syria, after the ‘imposed rebellion’ runs its course, the ones stupid enough to believe the propaganda enough to go out and kill will be small and so radical that they won’t even try to coordinate or cooperate with rival radicals, and those who might be tempted to make a play for the position of US approved looter in the shadows of such killings will bide their time until the shadow is very deep, much deeper than the Bundy analogs can create.
Yes indeed what revolution you are talking about ?
So much for somebody who claims to be a geopolitical analyst, writing about a country and a region he has never put a foot on and never visited as it is obvious from this article. The quality of this article in terms of both, the information presented and the "anaylsis" it concluded, is not good even by a standard set for a secondary school student report on what is going on Syria.
I am not exactly sure how our geopolitical analyst defines a revolution, or "moderate rebels".
One of the called "moderate rebels" Nour ai-Din al Zinki Movement who is now fully besieged by the Syrian army and its allies had beheaded in Handarat camp in Aleppo in July of this year the Palestinian child Abdullah Issa who was under 12 years old. Check this site to see for yourself https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCR0gzOCL0c
This is the type of "Moderate rebels" the author want us to believe that they aspire for ," the establishment of free Syria based on democratic values". The other group which may be the author includes within his "moderate rebels" is most likely Jabhat Al-Nusra who are in complete control of Eastern Aleppo with the other groups fighting under its banner. Just a reminder that Jabhat Al-Nusra has been added to the list of terrorists organizations by the U.N Security Council, the very same group the US and the UN special envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura want to protect and cover their safe withdrawal from Eastern part of Aleppo. This special envoy few weeks back said directing his call to al-Nusra terrorist group " if you decide to leave Aleppo with dignity and with your weapons, for Idlib or anywhere you wanted to go, I personally am ready physically to accompany you." He is willing to accompany those who have killed hundreds of civilians in Western Aleppo by shelling them with rockets, many of whom where children going to their schools in the morning, or men coming out of mosques after Friday prayers or families coming out of churches after Sunday prayers. These are the likings of the "moderate rebels", which the author is advocating.
This is only a passing comment on one thing. Hope more to come.