In the downstream of the horrific terrorist attack Monday night on the police academy in Quetta, Pakistan, some early conclusions can be drawn. The latest reports suggest that Pakistani intelligence had advance information that a terrorist attack targeted at security personnel was to be expected.
The Dawn newspaper from Karachi reported quoting ‘sources’ that terrorists had “come from Afghanistan and were in contact with their handlers in the neighboring country.”
In a refreshing break from the past habit of Pakistan (and India), promptly pointing finger at each other’s ‘locked-in’ adversary whenever such incidents took place, Islamabad has shown maturity and restraint.
Pakistan has suspended judgment on even any involvement by Afghan state agencies.
Having said that, the reference to ‘handlers’ seems ominous. It can only imply that the terrorists were not free agents. At issue here is whether the Al-Alimi faction of the extremist group Salafi group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi was acting under the influence of foreign countries.
These are early days. Given Pakistan’s strong intelligence in Afghanistan, it is a matter of time before Islamabad and Rawalpindi will reach firm conclusions.
There is bound to be consequences to follow. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been reported by Pakistani media as saying that the issue would be taken up with Kabul.
But in all likelihood, the Pakistani response will not be confined to the political and diplomatic level.
The point is, the scale of the Quetta attack has been so big – over 60 personnel were killed and over hundred people injured – and the target was unmistakably the security establishment.
The terrorist masterminds virtually taunted the Pakistani military leadership at a time when there is a transition expected at the GHQ in Rawalpindi. The retiring army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif’s legacy in the counter-terrorist offensive has been very substantial.
Strong headwinds
From the diplomatic perspective, the tragedy in Quetta certainly reinforces Pakistan’s image of being a ‘victim’ of terrorism, which helps subsume its reputation of being a practitioner of cross-border terrorism.
This is quite apparent from the outpouring of sympathy from the world capitals. The international community has differentiated the terrorists as ‘non-state actors’.
Notably, the reactions by the White House and the Kremlin as well as the European Union and China underscore that Pakistan is a key partner in the war against terrorism, implicitly appreciating its role.
The White House reiterated the US’ “commitment to support the Government of Pakistan in its efforts to end the scourge of terrorism and violent extremism and to promote peace, security and stability in the region.”
Similarly, in a personal message addressed to the Pakistani leadership, President Vladimir Putin, while condemning the “barbaric crime” in Quetta, “confirmed Russia’s readiness to further expand our counter-terrorist cooperation with Pakistani partners.”
The European Union said it will “continue to work closely together with Pakistan to fight the global threat of terrorism”, and stressed that the commitment “remains steadfast today.”
The Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said Beijing “will continue to support Pakistan in fighting against terrorism, maintaining national stability and protecting people’s life and property.”
Quite obviously, India’s diplomatic campaign to isolate Pakistan, labeling it as the ‘mothership’ of terrorism, and to rally the international community to impose sanctions against it runs into strong headwinds that all but make it impossible for Delhi to carry on without a course correction.
Delhi faces an acute predicament. It would have made great sense tactically for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to pick up the phone and speak to Prime Minister Sharif.
But then, that would have meant forgoing a trump card that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is holding to drum up jingoism in the Indian domestic opinion that might have its use in the upcoming provincial election in the key state of Uttar Pradesh (pop: 207 million), which is crucial to the power calculus in Delhi.
Clearly, political expediency prevailed in Modi’s mind.
On the other hand, Modi is not entirely at fault here, because he did try hard in the past to turn such tragic moments into an exercise at genuine soul-searching and catharsis by the Pakistani leadership, but it simply didn’t work the way he intended.
An audacious bid
In January when there was a terrorist attack on Peshawar University, Modi lost no time in taking to Twitter. In March, when there was a massive attack in Lahore in which 70 people were killed, Modi promptly phoned Sharif to offer his “deep condolences”.
Last December, when an army school was attacked in Peshawar, Modi instructed National Security Council Advisor Ajit Doval to visit the Pakistan embassy to sign the condolence book.
However, Modi has not said a word this time around. Does it make sense as a strategic decision?
The heart of the matter is that a delegation from Delhi led by a senior BJP leader and former foreign minister Yashwant Sinha met the top separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani in Srinagar on Tuesday in an audacious bid to break the stalemate in Jammu & Kashmir where a 100-day upheaval shows no sign of abating despite sustained state repression in which over hundred people have been killed so far by security forces.
Given the colorful background of some of the members of the 5-member delegation accompanying Sinha, it is possible to make out the imprimatur of the Indian security and political establishment on this political initiative.
Of course, BJP washes it hands off the initiative and the media blandly calls it a Track 2 enterprise. More appropriately, perhaps, it is Track 1.5 – or even Track 1.2.
That being the case, there is an India-Pakistan dimension to Sinha’s mission to Kashmir.
While it is alright to insist that Geelani is an Indian citizen and that Kashmir is an integral part of India – or, that the only thing to discuss with Pakistan is its vacation of occupied territories – the ground reality is that Pakistan can be of help in calming the situation in the Valley.
Also, it is a geopolitical reality that Pakistan can be helpful if it wishes to. And Delhi has experienced more than once in the past history of the Kashmir problem that Pakistan may keep an open mind even when things look as if the chips are down.
Therefore, a phone call by Modi to Sharif in the wake of the Quetta tragedy would have made eminent sense as a tactical underpinning to Sinha’s mission, which aims at political reconciliation.
There are times when a statesman must also be a historian, for, as Edmund Burke said in his famous speech of September 22, 1775 on Great Britain’s conciliation with America, ‘Otherwise, he is a mere empiric.’
EU,China,USA,Russia are now going to give Visas to Pakistani citizens….get real pakistan is used by china to contain India,America,Japan……as a all weather friend of pakistan how many chinese citizens travel to pakistan for holidays compared to srilanka
Pakistan army & their politicians have to change their strategy they should view the world as quarterfinal which is to get back their land from china which china is occupying illegally in akshai china & others,then the semi finals with other powers,then the final which is Mahabharat with India or pakistan should ask china to give visas for 20 million people in china…..When India & Pakistan should play the final in world politics i don’t like them playing quarter final match.With 200 nukes of Pakistan & 400 nukes of India it is time to blackmail the chinese
Really?
Again, you for real — or just fantasizing? And while you are dreaming of how India and Pakistan should outwit each other, and keep up the suspicions and waste resources on endless war games — even that is not enough for you. You wish to drag China into the gutter. And gutter is the best description of India-Pakistan politics for decades. And naturally, to keep the global empire in charge of the little stupid children. Time to grow up.
I sense a much larger scale goal in Modi’s India strategy. But he has to bring along the populace, brought up in immature environment of soft-colonialism. By all-out attack on Pakistan, he is in fact giving stronger hand to the central authorities, both civilian and military. In Pakistan, over half a century of the grey eminence driving policy — the Terror Barrons — has to come to an end. The only way domestic sympathies will be with the government — is in the face of belligerant India. And Modi supplied it — plenty of.
Now, the Terror Barrons are getting nervous. The attacks in Pakistan show it. But it will backfire on all those powerbrokers that used Pakistan as huge reservoir of cheep soldiers for hire. They are mighty, and they do not live in Pakistan necessarily. LIttle Gulf states are more to their taste. Be that Al-Qaeda, or later Taliban — all had their beginnings in Saudi financed, US approved and Terror Barrons executed, operations for hire.
In trying to disrupt the process of consolidation of Government authority — they are showing their craft, and reminding Pakistan leadership what they are capable off. But this time around, in spite of verbal support from US — it is too late for US play in Pakistan. The leadership will get political and financial support from elsewhere — and the tensions with India are interpreted by a common man on the street — as US empowerment of Modi. And US actually fell for it — fell for the opportunity to bag a big prize — India. It all was for naught, as India and Russia just signed a deal that is more of an pact in energy, security and commerce. While Moscow is at the same time, being supportive of Pakistan’s effort to deal with the well funded terror structure. So, Pakistan wins, and India wins. The progress in dismantling Terror Barrons web of influence will get a boost from the tragedy. The message Terror Barrons meant to send — you, the Government, are no match for us — has been lost in the popular support for the government’s stand against terrorists, as well as the image of the government that is trying to do its best in the face of Indian "provocation"
As for the real money bags and political operatives behind the scheme — this is another opportunity. I bet that Pakistan has every reason to think that somebody has left fingerprints on this one. For too long used to have their way, the rich Terror Barrons are not ready for an environment of increased regional intelligence ties. Pakistan has its intelligence ties with Kabul, as well as intelligence ties with the region — China, Iran, Russia. So, now Pakistan does not need to play the "India" card — time to get serious. Games set up far away, to keep Pakistan and India at each other’s throats, while the economy of the region is the primary hostage.
One has to remember what is different this time: India and Pakistan have joined Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and is building a new strategy for managing the region independenlty of non-regional powers. Asia will lead the world in the future — it is up to its key players to establish pan-Asia security. With the exception of countries as Japan and South Korea, all other countries have a great deal of flexibility.
And if a regional security becomes a reality, both Korea and Japan are pragmatic industrial powers that will recognize the far reaching potential for the continental development — and keep their toes in.
Author M.K. Bhadrakumar is forgetting a key fact that its Pak Army & ISI which plays in Kashmir & Sharif has no strings to control the its Army rather Army controls sharif by forcing him to act offensive agains India. The stance of Sharif in UN was a clear sign.
This writer become insane!
"MK Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for over 29 year"
That fact about Badhrakumar is itself enough to rule him out as a person fit to advice Indians on security matters. Cross-border terrorism has already killed tens of thousands of Meon’s unfortunate fellow countrymen. All these years he and his like have allowed the Pakistanis a free hand. Lack of action to hit Pakistan meant the terror-exporting country had every reason to invest more and more and more in the terror war against India. What had it to fear? If India continues to refuse to hit back, the Pakistanis will expand the terror hits all over India. No place in the country will be safe. Foreign investors will pull out. Other separatists all over the country will realise the Indian state is weak and take up arms against it. India will collapse.
Modi did the right thing to hit back. Now the Pakistanis have more respect for India. Ignore the Bhadrakumars and their habit of appeasement.
CORRECTED VERSION OF MY POST BELOW:
"MK Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for over 29 year"
That fact about Badhrakumar is itself enough to rule him out as a person fit to advice Indians on security matters. Cross-border terrorism has already killed tens of thousands of his unfortunate fellow countrymen. All these years he and his like have allowed the Pakistanis a free hand. Lack of action to hit Pakistan meant the terror-exporting country had every reason to invest more and more and more in the terror war against India. What had it to fear? If India continues to refuse to hit back, the Pakistanis will expand the terror hits all over India. No place in the country will be safe. Foreign investors will pull out. Other separatists all over the country will realise the Indian state is weak and take up arms against it. India will collapse.
Modi did the right thing to hit back. Now the Pakistanis have more respect for India. Ignore the Bhadrakumars and their habit of appeasement.
Yeah, yeah. Another great Indo-Pak gallivant and junket followed by more terror attacks.
Give us a break. Been there. Done that. Not going back again.
The Indian diplomatic establishment has an unlimited appetite for gadding about with Pakistanis. The rest of us don’t.
If India wants to frolic with Pakistan it cannot expect the rest of the world to treat Pakistan as a terror exporting pariah. Make your mind: you either want to isolate the Pakis or you don’t. You can’t have it both ways.
India has a large number of grizzled diplomats like the worthy Bhadrakumar, for whom the whole interest of living is found in endlessly complicated games and intrigues with Pakistan.
The idea is that no matter what Pakistan does to savage India and Indians, India must keep up the sweet talk, Track 2, Track 3 and Track 4 diplomacy, wheels within wheels, an "uninterrupted and uninterruptible dialogue" as the doyen of these strange gamesters, the footling fatuous fathead Mani Shankar Aiyar, once rapturously put it.
Do Pakistani terrorists attack the Indian parliament? India must send a group of gambolling clowns to win Pakistani hearts. Does Pakistan behead Indian soldiers? India must send them a plane load of treacly sweets to delight Pakistani tongues. Does Pakistan kill nearly 200 people in an attack on Mumbai hotels? Send a large group of Bollywood actors who will walk on their hands to impress the Pakistanis ! And so forth.
Someone like Modi who is so crude as to retaliate to terror attacks with military action spoils this delighful game. No wonder Bhadrakumar is distraught.