MOSCOW –The Russia-dominated security alliance, Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), disclosed a long-term vision of the grouping’s development. However, post-Soviet conflicts still top the organization’s agenda despite the CSTO’s pledges to play a larger global role.
The heads of states of the CSTO gathered in Armenia’s capital Yerevan to confirm the grouping’s long-term vision of security issues. The summit approved its development blueprint till 2025, including a collective security strategy, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said on October 14.
In a joint statement, they voiced concerns about a possible infiltration of Islamic State militants from Afghanistan into Central Asian states.
The CSTO, which includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan, is aimed to jointly counter security threats. On October 14, the CSTO also decided to set up the grouping’s crisis response center, and filed a joint list of militant groups seen as terrorists by the member-states.
Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev refrained from attending the summit in Armenia, citing health issues. Media outlets in neighboring Azerbaijan described it as “Armenian flu,” implying that Nazarbayev was reluctant to be seen as siding with Armenia on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan left the CSTO back in 1999. In April 2016, there were signs of the renewed conflict in Azerbaijan’s breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, that started in late 1980s. In 1991, the ethnically Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) was proclaimed. However, Azerbaijan does not recognize the NKR and considers the region to be its occupied territories. Azerbaijan’s authorities apparently hope that the CSTO collective security arrangement can only protect Armenia within its internationally recognized borders, but not the NKR.
The Kremlin attempted shuttle diplomacy, aimed at defusing the conflict. Meanwhile, Russian officials also pledged to continue arms sales to both sides of the conflict, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Russia maintains strong security links with Armenia. It has a military base in Armenia till 2020, and the 1997 friendship treaty provides for mutual assistance in the event of a military threat to either country.
On October 14, Armenian President Sargsyan argued that the summit in Yerevan voiced support of the peaceful Nagorno-Karabakh settlement. However, ahead of the summit, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there would be no joint CSTO statement on Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijani media outlets described Peskov’s words as Armenia’s diplomatic failure.
Putin attended the CSTO top-level meeting ahead of his trip to India to attend BRICS summit. Incidentally, the CSTO summit coincided with the first visit of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Azerbaijan from October 13 to 15.
Apart from Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the situation in Central Asia came as another matter of the CSTO’s concern. President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon told the summit in Armenia that the situation in Afghanistan was deteriorating, thus threatening Tajik-Afghan border or the Southern frontier of the CSTO.
The CSTO has been mulling a specific plan to counter threats to member-states from the territory of Afghanistan since 2011. The CSTO has repeatedly pledged increased assistance to Tajikistan aimed to fortify the country’s border with Afghanistan. These plans and pledges were backed up by regular shows of military force.
Earlier this month, CSTO’s Rapid Reaction Collective Force (KSOR) conducted exercises in Kyrgyzstan aimed to counter security threats from Afghanistan. The drill’s scenario involved land operations and air strikes against the incursion from Afghanistan. Russia’s Tupolev Tu-22M3 Backfire supersonic long-range strategic bombers took part in the drill.
The CSTO has been mulling a larger global role, including possible membership of states other than the former Soviet nations. In 2012-2015, India, Iran and Egypt held talks with the CSTO on observer status and possible membership.
At the summit in Armenia, Belarus assumed the rotating presidency of the CSTO. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko told the summit that the grouping should not await recognition by the West. “We should act in a way so as to force NATO to recognize our organization,” Lukashenko said. However, there were no clarifications on what actions were supposed to force NATO’s recognition of the CSTO.
Yet despite pledges to play a larger international role, the CSTO apparently was still focused on post-Soviet issues. It remains a matter of debate whether the CSTO could force, or convince, the West to treat the organization as an equal partner.
I follow this author’s analyses for years. And it does have a same refrain. No other countries, save NATO and EU, are capable of organizing and being a factor on a global international stage. Yet, looking back, I realize that the author continues to make same mistakes. It focuses on the problems, past and future, of those outside of the Western alliance to make his points. And misses the dynamics that have already shifted the global landscape to the point that the traditoinal powers can no longer impose its agenda. And this seems to be the key — the word "impose". While the principes of Shanghai Cooperation Organization have remained entirely outside the Western discourse — they are actually reshaping the global landscape.
So, to say that problems remain, and to say that a specific subset of the entire alternative global fulcrum — such as CSTO — is an end-all and be-all of the role these countries play in restructuring relations, is to an astounding manner miss the obvious.
Example of Nagorno-Kharabak is a good one. The autor did not notice that both Armenia and Azerbaijan joined SCO together. The problem management has moved into the arena of this broader forum — not taking away anything from a specific, grounded focus on international terrorism, its movements and sponsors embodies in CSTO. The provocation last year in Nagorno-Kharabak was quickly doused. The reason? It was masterminded outside the region, and some local actors fell for it. Instant reaction from both Armenia and Azerbaijan was adult, and business like — that took out the air of the attempt to destabilize the region. Needless to say, the investigation into the matter has not failed to find the causes, culprits and their foreign sponsors. Much to the unhappiness of the organizers. Azerbaijan has moved decisevely closer to its region, towards Iran and Russia, and has always enoyed support in Turkey. Being Shia Moslem country, it did not find it difficult to have good relationship with Russian predominantly Sunni Moslems, or with Christian communities. In fact, both countries are today part of the humanitarian mission in Syria.
What is necessary in any conflict with such old historical roots is to buld confidence and trust among parties, helped along by a supportive mediation environment, as well as parties that can help pave the road to a successful settlement — that would require not just political, but security and financial guarantiees. Reading all kinds of petty ulterior motives into situation is rather characteristic — only NATO and EU are capable of adult behavior.
But the world is moving apace — and other problems are tackled by the parties directly and with the help of SCO. This includes the tough India-Pakistan problem. The cautious, stealthy and tactical moves are often overlooked, in favor of the superficial. Most media in the West have entirely missed the support that India gave to Russia in Syrian conflict, and in its uncompromising stand against international terrorism. Just at the time Western powers were screaming to indict Russia and Syria, and threaten to bomb. Not getting any support from any quarters may not stop arrogance — but even the most arrogant should know when isolated and preaching to/being consoled by NATO/EU aging rock-band gathering.
All the bombast in the universe cannot hide the fact that old bills for cruelty and colonialism come back to be presented to the perpetrator. Philippines just presented the 110 year old bill, and is putting its faith in developing relations with a power that does business on the basis of building mutual trust. Nor it should escape the attention how Egypt is slowly shifting its reliance on partners. And the rather noisy divorce with Turkey.
In this context, reading so much into what CSTO is doing in its microcosm, represents a tunnel vision.
It may take a lots of time to switch the rhetoric from the one of bombast to a more statesmanlike posture, but it will be a start. Listening for a change. For everyone’s good.