Mi pare che Francesco Sisci abbia ben ragionato.
ISIS is by no means surrounded. Turks – with their government’s blessings and often direction – support ISIS all the time. Saudis used to do it with their government’s direction and now do so without it. So do many others, including the Russians. The US objects in a variety of self-discrediting ways.
Is there calculation in this? My experience with the U.S ruling class convinces me that this is impossible. Its incompetence and lack of conscience is difficult to understand for anyone who has not been close to it.
Is Iran an island of civilization in the Middle East? Of course it is. But the necessities of the great Sunni-Shia war degrade that civilization as much as any overemphasis on doctrine. These necessities, however, also force a certain amount of strategic realism.
At any rate, Iran has and enough nuclear materials for weapons for some time. Its R&D focuses on miniaturization and delivery systems. Nothing is going to stop it.
The Middle East is awash in madmen. But recall: it was not madmen who carried out 9/11. The pros recruited some madmen for subordinate roles.
The danger for America is twofold: The minor one is that the US government’s actions and inactions will embolden some pros to mount operations like 9/11 against us. Many similarly destructive operation are all too easy.
The major danger is that ISIS and others such will further sharpen the grievances of any number of Americans and embolden them to further shred our already unraveling social fabric.
In short, incompetence has consequences.