There are three things weighing on the Euro: yield, yield and yield. As Mario Draghi’s quantitative easing sucks yield out of the European bond market, large numbers of investors have no choice but to go elsewhere. Looking at tick data for the past week, there’s a pretty clear inverse relationship between (for example) the Italian 10-year bond price and EUR/USD. That points the European unit towards parity. This might be the world’s most crowded trade, and one of the most crowded trades in history, so woe to the levered investor that gets caught on the wrong side of corrections. But the trend remains towards Dollar-Euro parity.
