BlackRock Inc economist Wei Li has a brutal message for Asian policymakers and investors who are betting that the US Federal Reserve is done tightening: Get used to disappointment.
“We don’t see rate cuts this year – that’s the old playbook when central banks would rush to rescue the economy as recession hit,” Li argues. “We see a new, more nuanced phase of curbing inflation ahead: less fighting but still no rate cuts.”
Such views throw cold water on the conventional wisdom that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse’s stumble and the chatter about troubles at brokerage Charles Schwab Corp would deter Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s team from additional rate hikes.
Blackrock’s economists are being vindicated in their long-held view that the Powell-led Fed has been “underestimating how stubborn inflation is proving due to a tight labor market,” Li notes.