China’s Covid reopening is spurring an econometric arms race of sorts as analysts scramble to raise their growth forecasts for Asia’s top trade power. If 2022 was the year of red ink, the 12 months ahead will see an explosive growth spurt the likes of which economists have never seen before.
”We expect [Chinese] consumption to be a major growth driver in 2023,” says analyst Zerlina Zeng at CreditSights. “We expect consumer spending to pick up, driven by pent-up demand and the savings that Chinese households have accumulated in the past three years.”
Zeng notes that this “expected macro recovery” from the second quarter on “should support employment, which in turn will boost consumption, creating a positive feedback loop.”