The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) this week launched new military exercises near Taiwan, stepping up pressure on the self-governing island after Washington announced a US$11 billion arms sale to Taipei.
Alongside the shows of force, Beijing has also ramped up information warfare aimed at undermining confidence in Taiwan’s defenses. An overseas Chinese military commentator said the campaign seeks to persuade overseas audiences that Taiwan’s forces and equipment would be unable to withstand a PLA attack.
On Monday (December 29), the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command carried out joint drills involving naval vessels and aircraft in waters and airspace around Taiwan. The exercises focused on simulated strikes against sea and land targets, air‑control operations and anti‑submarine missions.
The drills aimed to show tighter coordination between China’s air and naval forces. They escalated on Tuesday with long‑range live‑fire exercises in waters around Taiwan.
The provocations followed Washington’s December 18 announcement of a new arms sale to Taiwan, the largest ever approved for the island. The deal includes rocket artillery systems, long‑range missiles, self‑propelled howitzers, unmanned surveillance platforms and related military software.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday denounced the US arms sale, framing the deal as part of what he called repeated provocations linked to “Taiwan independence.”
“The Taiwan question is China’s internal affair. It is at the heart of China’s core interests,” Wang said in a speech at the Symposium on the International Situation and China’s Foreign Relations. “Realizing complete national reunification is a lawful action of safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a historical mission that we must fulfill.”
“We are seeing more and more countries stand with China. They not only reaffirm their commitment to the one China principle and recognize Taiwan as China’s territory, but also unequivocally oppose all separatist activities for ‘Taiwan independence’ and support China’s reunification cause,” he said.
“Since Lai Ching‑te became Taiwan’s leader, he has intensified his push for ‘Taiwan independence’ by relying on military means and seeking United States support,” Yu Laiming, director of the Institute of Taiwan Studies at Wuhan University, writes in an article published by China Daily. “Essentially, Lai is walking further down the wrong road of destroying Taiwan and selling out the island.”
Four military options
Since Lai was inaugurated as Taiwan’s president on May 20, 2024, Beijing has upped the scale of its military drills near Taiwan.
In April 2024, the PLA launched large-scale joint exercises around Taiwan under the name Joint Sword-2024A, spanning the Taiwan Strait and waters near the Kinmen and Matsu island groups, as well as areas to the north, south and east of the island. The exercises were followed by Joint Sword-2024B in October.
Earlier this year, the PLA also carried out Strait Thunder-2025A in April, before launching the current round of exercises, dubbed Justice Mission 2025, underscoring a sustained pattern of military pressure on Taiwan.
In its annual report on China’s military and security developments, the US Department of War (DoW) outlined four broad options Beijing may consider if its leaders decide to invade Taiwan:
- Coercion short of war: China could try to force negotiations through sustained military pressure combined with economic, information and diplomatic tools, including cyber and limited strikes, to undermine confidence in Taiwan’s defenses.
- Joint firepower strike campaign: The PLA could use precision missile and air strikes against key military and command targets to weaken Taiwan’s defenses, though such operations would demand complex coordination across services.
- Joint blockade campaign: Beijing could seek to cut Taiwan’s maritime and air links through prolonged blockades, combined with missile strikes and information operations to isolate the island.
- Joint island landing campaign: A full amphibious invasion would be the most risky and complex option, requiring air and maritime superiority, but would also offer the most decisive means of forcing unification.
On December 8, the New York Times published an editorial warning that the US military could be overmatched in a conflict over Taiwan. Citing a highly classified Pentagon assessment known as the Overmatch Brief, the paper said war games showed US fighter squadrons, major warships and even satellite networks could be crippled early in a conflict.
Prepared by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, the report said China’s growing arsenal of cheaper, rapidly produced weapons could exploit US reliance on fewer high-end systems.
It highlighted Beijing’s long-range precision missiles, counter-space capabilities and an estimated stockpile of about 600 hypersonic weapons as key factors placing US forces at a disadvantage.
Some Chinese commentators said the Pentagon’s annual China military report and the Overmatch Brief amounted to an acknowledgment that the US is losing its long-held advantages in a potential conflict with China, particularly at sea.
“The US military itself now acknowledges that its past ‘overwhelming advantage’ is eroding,” a Chinese commentator writes. “This is not a routine update, but a sign of strategic repositioning, with China shifting from a regional issue to a central factor in America’s global military planning.”
“The Overmatch Brief exposes structural weaknesses in US military power,” says Hou Junyi, a commentator with the state-owned Shenzhen Media Group. “China’s ability to mass-produce weapons such as hypersonic missiles and submarines has undercut US reliance on aircraft carriers, and in modern warfare, the survivability of carriers on the battlefield is extremely low.”
Promoting Beijing’s narratives
The DoW’s report also noted that China has recognized the need to control internal and external narratives in a conflict scenario and is developing methods to implement information warfare better.
It said the PLA’s Strategic Support Force (SSF), responsible for reconnaissance and electronic and cyber warfare, was dissolved in April 2024. At the same time, the PLA’s Aerospace Force, Cyber Space Force and newly created Information Support Force were placed directly under the Central Military Commission.
Between December 2015 and April 2024, the SSF paid large numbers of online commentators, commonly known as “Wumao (or 50 cents),” to publish pro‑Beijing and anti‑US content. Beijing later found that such propaganda was too blatant and ineffective.
An Italy‑based Chinese military commentator known as “Xumouren” recently made public a 43-minute phone recording in which a PLA middleman, “Bright_hawkins” (nicknamed “Sunset Pirate”), offered him 40,000 euros (US$47,000) per month to promote the PLA.
During the phone call, Sunset Pirate suggested Xumouren maintain a politically neutral image on his YouTube channel while implicitly promoting the message that Taiwan’s military equipment is outdated and that Taiwan cannot defend itself.
He also suggested that Xumouren discuss the Ukrainian army’s weaknesses so audiences could imagine the disadvantages Taiwan would face in a war with the PLA. Sunset Pirate, a self-claimed Catholic, said Xumouren’s neutral image and high credibility could help suppress “Taiwan independence.”
He said he had previously worked for Beijing’s public security department, but left the “system” years ago and moved to Philadelphia. He said he was later approached by his ex-boss and paid to establish and manage a team to promote Chinese Communist Party (CCP) narratives, adding that he had cleared his huge debts through the work and now wanted to earn more for his US-based family.
He said he would take a 30% commission if Xumouren joined his team, which included some music, travel and auto commentators based in Japan, Italy and the United States. He added that team members could criticize the CCP but not Chinese President Xi Jinping, and that it was better not to mock former Chinese leader Mao Zedong.
In a separate video, Xumouren said an extremely hardworking YouTuber could earn about 20,000 euros a month, which is probably why the offer was set at 40,000 euros. He stressed that money couldn’t buy his integrity.
Some observers said Beijing aims to weaken Taiwanese society’s morale and reduce its willingness to resist, paving the way for a rapid invasion before the US and Japan become directly involved.
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