President Donald Trump’s decision to launch attacks on three of Iran’s major nuclear enrichment sites took place after negotiations in Geneva collapsed.
Iran’s foreign minister met with the foreign ministers of Germany, Britain and France, known as the E3, plus the EU. The E-3 and EU group pressed the Iranians to engage in negotiations with the United States. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi said Iran would only consider talks of some kind (not with the United States) after Israel halted its attacks on Iran and was punished.
The E-3 tried to sell Araghchi and the Iranians on a formula, not supported by Washington, that would impose strict nuclear inspections and other similar measures as a “solution” to the impasse, disregarding Trump’s policy of no enrichment of uranium by Iran. Araghchi wasn’t buying the European suggestions.
Behind the scenes there were a number of attempts to broker deals, the Geneva meeting the last in a line of contacts. All the various initiatives were blocked by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
The US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities featured some 75 precision weapons including 14 GBU-57 bunker busters, 30,000-pound dual warhead weapons dropped by B-2 stealth bombers. Twelve GBUs were used against Fordow, two on the nuclear site at Isfahan.
The B-2’s flew directly from the United States and were refueled several times enroute to their targets. The US also deployed fourth and fifth generation fighter jets, likely from Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia, although that is unconfirmed.
A US submarine, probably Ohio class, located some 400 miles from Iran, launched 30 TLAM (Tomahawk Land Attack) cruise missiles aimed at Natanz and Isfahan. Other targets may also have been involved, but that information has not been disclosed.
The US aircraft were not attacked by any Iranian air defenses, suggesting that most of these had previously been neutralized by Israel’s Air Force.
China’s role
China deployed two surveillance ships, numbers 855 and 815A, apparently to provide early warning to Iran and to try and jam Israeli air attacks. These same ships, it appears, were unsuccessful in detecting the US attack, either because they were jammed or because they never saw the B-2 bombers and other stealth aircraft such as the F-22 or F-35.
Even if the Chinese were able to pass warnings to Iran, Israel had already destroyed most of Iran’s air force and other air defenses. Reportedly, China also was shipping supplies into Iran and evacuating Chinese citizens.
‘Midnight Hammer’
The US operation, called Midnight Hammer, was coordinated with Israel and managed by CENTCOM. President Trump, speaking a few minutes after 10pm from the White House said that Iran should now make peace, but if it did not, there were plenty of targets in Iran that were far easier than Fordow, Isfahan or Natanz.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaking at an early Sunday morning news conference at the Pentagon, said, “I can only confirm that there are both public and private messages being directly delivered to the Iranians in multiple channels, giving them every opportunity to come to the table. They understand precisely what the American position is, precisely what steps they can take to allow for peace, and we hope they do so.”
Iran-Russia
Reportedly Iran’s foreign minister is traveling to Moscow to coordinate with Russia and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin had sought a mediation role between Iran and the United States.
For Putin the main focus is on Ukraine, where Russia is making significant breakthroughs, especially in areas that apparently are outside of the stated territorial goals of Russia’s “special military operation.”
Russian support for Iran, if Russia actively challenged the United States, could force a turnaround in how the US views Russia in strategic terms. Putin likely will not want to see any change that would induce the United States to commit airpower to defend Ukraine and, by extension, risk a wider European conflict. Therefore, it is unlikely that Russia will take any action that would undermine the “warming trend” with the United States.
Russia’s ability to influence Khamenei and the Mullahs, or for that matter Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, to make a deal with the United States, is highly limited.
Regime change?
At present any chance for Iran to change course and to consider a diplomatic solution that would definitively end Iran’s nuclear program seems unlikely, considering Iran’s current power structure. The US insists it is not promoting regime change in Iran, but that policy could very well change if there continues to be no progress in resolving the nuclear issue.
Reportedly President Trump’s envoy, Richard Grenell has asked Elon Musk to provide Starlink terminals to “our friends” in Iran, a strong hint that the US is getting ready to support efforts to overthrow the Khamenei regime.
Meanwhile hardliners in Iran are calling for Iran’s navy to block the Straits of Hormuz, effectively ending oil exports through the Persian Gulf. Iran has a small navy and some submarines, including fairly quiet but older Kilo-class submarines.
The idea that Iran could stop commercial traffic under current circumstances may be wishful thinking, considering the naval and air power put in place by the United States. Similarly, there is a Houthi threat to stop commercial traffic in the Red Sea, but Houthi capabilities have already been reduced and Iran is no longer in a position to resupply the Houthis with missiles and drones.
Meanwhile the Iranian government has lost face at home. Suppressing the Internet and other steps won’t stop the flow of information outside of regime control. The possibility of an internal upheaval cannot be discounted. Whether it will materialize remains to be seen.
Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article, which originally appeared on his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.
Bryen is a long time neo-con and rabid supporter of Israel. He has been involved in nefarious weapon deals that benefitted Israel and that bordered on treason. He was forced to resign from his position in the Bush regime due to unethical and illegal behavior. His opinion is that of a war profiteer and good German serving any and all interests of the state of Israel.
C’est épuisant d’écrire quelque chose en anglais et de voir AT le censurer parce qu’un mot semble indécent. Par exemple, cette phrase « La Chine et la Russie perdent de l’influence au Moyen-Orient » est apparemment une violation de la décence et est censurée. Quelle connerie !
I wish Iran would loosen its restrictions on its people. It doesn’t need to become a western type democracy overnight, but it should ease up on the state sanctioned repression. At any rate, this conflict is a gift to China and Russia. They’re just looking on and smiling.
A wishful thinking of a fool.
Two Chinese surveillance ships failed to detect the US attack, either because they were jammed or because they didn’t see the B-2 bombers and other stealth aircraft like the F-22 or F-35.
So much for Chinese “superiority warfare” in radar technology. LOL.
And Russia? Russia changes partner. Vampire Poo-tin’s new concubine is Fat Kim. The Ayatollah is now a hot potato to hold. LOL.
Nevertheless, Donut Trumpet was duped by Israel and is now at war with Iran. Poor Americans living abroad.
The other much more likely scenario, sweeping aside blowhard Western theatrics, chest beating and overrated white elephant junk is that this “attack” was scripted and staged like Agent Orange himself. If we remember the scripted and staged attack against the empty Syrian airfield in 2017 to appease the fragile Yanqui ego, this certainly has that feel to it. How will we know? Judging by Iran’s response.
You chew the old cud over and over again. Try something newer than Chest beating and whining, ranting against the world.
The other alternative is to jump onto the narrative control merry-go-round a la the British Bullsh*t Corporation, “Mission Accomplished”, targeted at ignorant Westerners. You’re all about the PR and marketing department shine, we know. But if I jumped on this bandwagon, we’d all be wrong.
LOL your Disorder is beyond cure.
No, dummy, China benefits from the conflict, and anything that distracts the US away from its antics. The same for Russia. Be smarter.
LOL, from the comment people know what low level the author is at.
It was all over Wechat as the planes left the base. Chinas got some fancy satellites that the US don’t. Made with critical minerals that the US don’t have.
These Western dimwits have absolutely destroyed their credibility in the eyes of the world. They bomb you while “negotiating”. Who negotiates with these half wits? It is pointless. When you poison trust at an international level to this degree, its over for the West. They can go on hammering everywhere and winning nowhere, but nobody would seriously ever trust these perfidious backstabbers for generations to come. All that British 007 cloak and dagger claptrap that the Saxons revel in, has brought them to this point. The time has come to move on from the West.
Your whining and ranting don’t change the fact that Iran is being razed to the ground. China should provide Iran with Sun Tzu’s book “The Art of War.” Loudmouth leads to nowhere, only destruction.
Iran is a civilization. Israel is an experiment. It also has strategic depth unlike Israel. The exchange of blows is hurting the experiment more than the civilization. You can bet on that. Israel lacks the strategic depth, patience and resources to fight attrition war. They are welfare queens.
Iran is a civilization? LOL. Zoroastrianism was the dominant religion in Persia (modern-day Iran) before the Islamic conquest. So, Iran has lost its civilization since the 7th century.
Persian culture has persisted through Islam, the Safavids, the Western backed clown (Pahlavi) and the Ayatollahs in the very same region. This is the homeland of the Persian people, not even the Romans could subdue them. Your response highlights your ignorance, so typical of new world evangelists who live in a cultural abyss.
Civilization is an expression of primitiveness and barbarism. People didn’t build enormous monuments for fun or as a hobby, but were forced to do so under totalitarian rulers or fanatical religious leaders. Persian has culture ceased to exist since the 7th century. Chinese culture has ceased to exist since the Cultural Revolution in the 1970s.
Stop whining and boasting about culture and civilization if you’re a barbarian.
Utter Garbage from a pro-zionaz!
Opinion of a fool
Trumpty Dumpty TACO MIGA man could not negotiate his way out of a paper bag